The African American vote on Prop.8 exaggerated
Let me kick the dead horse one more time. As I suspected, a study finds that African Americans as a group voted yes on Prop 8. in the same proportion as the general population in California. I have read many many accounts where "70%" of African Americans supported Prop.8 when in fact it was "70%" of African Americans who attended church supported Prop.8 which comports with the rest of the population. Therefore, the work needs to be done with all and in all religious institutions.
I knew this "70%" sounded suspicious after I took a look at the Secretary of State's website which gave details on which counties supported and defeated Prop 8. I used census data and voting information to figure that black people could not have made such an impact. Perhaps instead of getting bent out of shape, Prop.8 opponents should spend more time doing outreach to the majority of people who voted Yes on Prop.8 as this article suggest.
Would someone tell Andrew Sullivan to give up his campaign on "70%" of African American voters in California and refocus his energy on "70%" of religious voters.
I knew this "70%" sounded suspicious after I took a look at the Secretary of State's website which gave details on which counties supported and defeated Prop 8. I used census data and voting information to figure that black people could not have made such an impact. Perhaps instead of getting bent out of shape, Prop.8 opponents should spend more time doing outreach to the majority of people who voted Yes on Prop.8 as this article suggest.
Would someone tell Andrew Sullivan to give up his campaign on "70%" of African American voters in California and refocus his energy on "70%" of religious voters.
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According to the link you provided, the 70% corresponds to all church-goers, not just African Americans who attend church.
But you have a point in stating that the results of this survey were less than 70%. It was 58% for African American voters in general.
January 7, 2009 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember it was "70% of African Americans" that spread like wild fire in some quarters.
While some opponents of this nasty little bit of civil business were spinning out of control, they were offending the very same black people who wanted to defeat Prop.8 as well.
Opponents were taking aim at the very same people who will most likely help win over that "70%."
Pick a target and don't shoot from the hip.
January 7, 2009 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
This should be a stark reminder to all that depending on raw exit poll data will invariably lead to a wrong conclusion.
January 8, 2009 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink