Conventional wisdom (at least since 1972) teaches that a presidential candidate risks political suicide by replacing his running mate late in the game. Hell, any change, even pre-convention, runs the risk of inviting doubts about judgment and decisiveness. So, John McCain couldn't possibly entertain the idea of dumping Sarah Palin with a month to go, right? Or could he? I can see how McCain (or, more accurately, his campaign, since we all know "the candidate doesn't necessarily speak for the campaign") might actually soon recognize the move as their last best "hail mary."

What's become explicit over the past few months is that McCain has a snowball's chance in

As loath as I am to follow the Republicans' lead on just about anything, the best solution to the Florida/Michigan dilemma is the one the GOP came up with in the first place. Namely, cut the delegations in half (as a way of penalizing those states for defying the calendar) and seat them according to the vote (to avoid the appearance of disenfranchising MI and FL voters). I suspect the Obama camp is, or soon will be, just fine with recognizing the percentages from FL, given that they've already reportedly signed on with the proposal out of MI (where he wasn't even on the ballot) that would net Clinton 10 delegates there - and that's with the full delegation seated. If both states delegations were halved, the net impact on what remains of the race becomes relatively inconsequential. I just can't see Dean acquiescing to any deal which doesn't include at least a tacit "punishment" for MI and FL, nor would I want him to, since it would represent surrender to renegrade states. Ironically, despite the fact that we owe this problem largely to Florida Republicans deliberately sabotaging their state's Democratic primary calendar, the GOP has provided the Dems with the best solution.

Almost lost in all the coverage and discussion of Barack Obama's remarkable speech today was the spectacle of John McCain making a ... well ... a spectacle of himself. Joe Lieberman did a spot-on impression of Nancy Reagan whispering cues to Ronnie, when he corrected John's blather about the "well-known" al- Qaeda/Iran connection. Seriously, I worry that America is in real danger of electing Reagan at the mid-point of his second term! I fully expect the newly-ordained Republican standard-bearer will soon begin every sentence with "Well..." and a sideways head bob. Look, as great an American hero as McCain was, as laudable as his years of public service have been, as tragic as it remains that Karl Rove didn't meet him first, at some point (and soon, I pray) we really need to take the car keys away from him, since he's rapidly becoming a danger to himself and others.

Barack Obama's statement regarding Rev Wright, as released on HuffPo:

"The pastor of my church, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who recently preached his last sermon and is in the process of retiring, has touched off a firestorm over the last few days. He's drawn attention as the result of some inflammatory and appalling remarks he made about our country, our politics, and my political opponents.

Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

Because these particular statements by Rev. Wright are so contrary to my own life and beliefs, a number of people have legitimately raised questions about the nature of my relationship with Rev. Wright and my membership in the church. Let me therefore provide some context.

As I have written about in my books, I first joined Trinity United Church of Christ nearly twenty years ago. I knew Rev. Wright as someone who served this nation with honor as a United States Marine, as a respected biblical scholar, and as someone who taught or lectured at seminaries across the country, from Union Theological Seminary to the University of Chicago. He also led a diverse congregation that was and still is a pillar of the South Side and the entire city of Chicago. It's a congregation that does not merely preach social justice but acts it out each day, through ministries ranging from housing the homeless to reaching out to those with HIV/AIDS.

Most importantly, Rev. Wright preached the gospel of Jesus, a gospel on which I base my life. In other words, he has never been my political advisor; he's been my pastor. And the sermons I heard him preach always related to our obligation to love God and one another, to work on behalf of the poor, and to seek justice at every turn.

The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation. When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign. I made it clear at the time that I strongly condemned his comments. But because Rev. Wright was on the verge of retirement, and because of my strong links to the Trinity faith community, where I married my wife and where my daughters were baptized, I did not think it appropriate to leave the church.

Let me repeat what I've said earlier. All of the statements that have been the subject of controversy are ones that I vehemently condemn. They in no way reflect my attitudes and directly contradict my profound love for this country.

With Rev. Wright's retirement and the ascension of my new pastor, Rev. Otis Moss, III, Michelle and I look forward to continuing a relationship with a church that has done so much good. And while Rev. Wright's statements have pained and angered me, I believe that Americans will judge me not on the basis of what someone else said, but on the basis of who I am and what I believe in; on my values, judgment and experience to be President of the United States."

I'm not as concerned about the video of Jeremiah Wright that was aired on GMA as I am about the almost inevitable discovery of a video clip of Obama, seated in the front row, nodding in agreement with some "offensive" message. You just know that it's gonna surface.

OK, I don’t have before me the list of so-called superdelegates, nor do I know which have aligned with Obama or Clinton (or anyone else, for that matter) to date. However, that last point would seem moot anyway, since superdels can shift allegiance with impunity. In fact, under normal circumstances (which we're clearly not in) they're expected to abandon any earlier commitments once the putative nominee emerges. That being said, here’s the thing I don’t get about the Clinton campaign’s reported strategy of wooing a big honkin' majority of superdels, as a way of trumping Obama’s now-all-but-certain advantage in pledged delegates going to Denver: As I understand it, the vast majority of superdels are either currently elected or (let’s face it) aspiring officeholders. As such, when it comes time to choose, each of them will have to answer a fairly simple question: Which of these two, at the top of our ticket, will attract more people to the polls to cast their votes for me in November? Remember, this is not a question that most of them have ever had to answer. For years they've simply fallen in line, signed on with whoever they were given by the rank and file, and hoped for the best. But this time, they can, in a very real way, influence their own electoral fate. Now, I suppose one could argue that in the bluest of blue districts, the answer to that politically selfish question could well be “her.” But in all those red or purple districts, would anyone with a whit of political acumen really fail to see that Obama will be better able to draw newcomers, Independents, and even a few R's over to down-ticket Dems? Seems to me that any “red” or “purple” superdel dumb enough to opt for a Democratic presidential nominee who will give dispirited newcomers a reason to stay home, and drive Independents to McCain, will get what s/he deserves. And I like to think there aren't that many dumb superdels.