The ideas in this post are from my book, The Genesis of
Values, which uses concepts in psychology to analyze political change.
I have been watching the constant struggle between liberals
and conservatives for my entire adult life, with each side always working to
remake America in its own image, trying and hoping to consign the other side to
the dustbin of history. Who will
win? Can we know?
Yes, we can know who will win. The answer, I am certain, is that if America does not suffer
a severe economic depression then it will become a European-style liberal
society within thirty years. This
is, in fact, inevitable.
Surprisingly, the reasons flow not from any analysis of politics, but
from evolutionary psychology.
When people watch the attitudes and behavior of those whose
values differ from theirs, they often think, 'How can they feel this way?' The answer to this comes also from
evolutionary psychology.
I believe that evolution has given us emotions for a reason,
and that reason is to impel (create an impulse toward) adaptive behavior. Our emotions have been shaped by
evolution to make us want to do things that aid in our survival and
reproduction. They are sensations
that impel socially adaptive behavior, just as physical sensations like hunger
or thirst impel physically adaptive behavior like eating and drinking.
This includes the moral emotions, meaning those emotional
reactions we feel when we perceive something as being morally 'right' or
'wrong'. This strong sensation of
rightness or wrongness feels like a direct perception of reality, but it
isn't. Seeing something as right
or wrong is different from seeing the sky as blue on a clear day. One is emotion, the other perception,
and emotions concern what we want, not what is factually true.
Obviously, people regard very different things as right or
wrong, and are shocked when others don't share their perceptions. It's as if the others can't see that
the sky is blue. This happens
because evolution has programmed us to 'want' different things under different
conditions.
A standard argument in evolutionary psychology holds that
humans engage in cooperative behavior because this increases resources
available for survival. Humans are
therefore also endowed with 'cheating detectors' so that they can make sure
others respond to cooperative behavior by reciprocating. Without a cheating detector you
could be generous to someone else and they could be selfish towards you, and
your generosity would be bad for your survival. With a cheating detector you punish people who do that, and
they learn to reciprocate, or you stop dealing with them. Voluntary exchange, and therefore all
economic transactions, are made possible by cheating detectors.
When your cheating detector goes off, you feel a sense of
'wrongness', and this sensation produces anger and an impulse to punish the
person who is 'wrong'. This helps
you survive. I believe that the
same logic applies to things other than cheating. I believe that evolution has endowed us with several
'wrongness' detectors adapted to different types of relationships.
Humans increase their resources for survival whenever they
coordinate their actions with others, and coordination can be cooperative or
coercive. This means that there
are three modes of relating: cooperative, dominant, and submissive. In each one people act in ways that are
intended to elicit desired behavior in others, and they have a wrongness
detector that goes off when they don't receive the response they want.
Cooperation is intended to elicit cooperation from
others. When it is received the
detector for cooperation detects rightness, when it isn't the detector detects
wrongness. This is the
evolutionary basis for the egalitarian values of fairness and justice.
The other modes of relating operate similarly. Dominance is intended to elicit
obedience. When it is received the
detector for dominance detects rightness, when it isn't the detector detects
wrongness. This is the
evolutionary basis for the hierarchical values of obedience and respect for
authority. Submission is intended
to elicit approval and protection from those who are dominant. When this is received the detector for
submission detects rightness, when it isn't the detector detects
wrongness. This reinforces the
values of obedience and respect for authority, and is also the evolutionary
basis for the human desire to worship a just and loving God. (More on this in another post, but for
now I will just note that the word 'Islam' is Arabic for 'submission'.)
These different modes of relating, and their detectors, are
activated by the circumstances in which they are adaptive for survival. Scarcity makes dominance more adaptive
for survival, while abundance makes cooperation more adaptive for
survival. When individuals need to
coordinate activity in order to obtain resources, the question is whether to
cooperate or to try to dominate.
There are risks and benefits to both. One risk is the risk of death or injury from conflict. The other risk is insufficient
resources for survival. With an
attempt to dominanate, the risk of harm in conflict is increased, because the
other individual might fight back and injure or kill the aggressor. With cooperation the primary risk
is insufficient resources, because conflict is avoided.
In times of scarcity the risk of dying from insufficient
resources is very much increased.
Since this is the primary risk with cooperation, this means that
scarcity makes cooperation more risky.
Thus dominance is relatively less
risky in times of scarcity than in times of abundance. The risk of being harmed in conflict
stays the same during times of scarcity and times of abundance, while the risk
of dying from insufficient resources declines as abundance increases. This means that as abundance increases,
cooperation becomes less and less risky, and so becomes the preferred
evolutionary strategy more and more often.
What this means in practice is that when individuals of
roughly equal capacities need to coordinate activity, the potential payoff of
dominance in survival terms is much greater under conditions of scarcity. Therefore conditions of scarcity should
increase the number of situations in which dominance is perceived as
advantageous, and so dominant, coercive, non-cooperative behavior should be
higher under these conditions. And
when we look at societies around the world and throughout history, this is
exactly the pattern that we see.
The correlation between scarcity and authoritarianism, while not perfect,
is very high.
What this tells us about politics, our own and in general,
is that scarcity will cause increased activation of dominance and submission
and the detectors that accompany those behaviors. Therefore, the hierarchical values of obedience and
automatic respect for authority will be stronger and more prevalent under
conditions of scarcity.
Conversely, abundance will cause increased activation of cooperation and
the detector that accompanies it.
Therefore, the egalitarian values of fairness and justice will be
stronger and more prevalent under conditions of abundance.
These ideas are original, and I call them coordination
theory. Coordination theory provides the mechanisms that explain the
historical progression in the West from authoritarian systems such as monarchy,
fascism, and communism, to modern liberal democracy. It also explains why democracy seems to eventually become
inevitable as economic affluence increases. Additionally, coordination theory also explains
political change over time within democracies, from conservative to liberal as
affluence increases.
Of course the correlation between economic advancement and
political change is not perfect.
The reason for this is that much of the change is time-lagged. Personality and consequently values are
largely formed during childhood and adolescence, so much of the political
effect of economic changes is not revealed until the generation that grew up
during those changes reaches maturity.
This process is detailed in my previous
post.
The important thing about coordination theory is that it not
only explains the past, it also predicts the future. One prediction I made privately a few years ago was that
Russia was due to enter a period of increased authoritarianism, due to conditions
of increased scarcity that have prevailed there since 1990. The generation raised under these
conditions is now maturing, and the increase in authoritarianism there can
already be seen. My prediction now
is that it will continue to increase significantly over the next few years, and
this will constitute a major foreign policy challenge.
I also predicted that America would see an increase in
liberal tendencies after about 2002, when the generation born after the
difficult times of the 1970s and early 1980s matured. That prediction was too early by a few years, but still
occurred. My prediction for
America now, as stated above, is that if decent economic conditions continue,
we will become a European-style democracy within thirty years. If coordination theory is correct, then
that's pretty much inevitable.
Unfortunately, however, decent economic conditions can no longer be
assumed.
The next post will explain the evolutionary roots of
empathy, entitlement, and hatred, and how these affect into political values,
according to coordination theory.