One thing to keep in mind about these tracking polls, (especially the Daily Kos / R2000 poll which generally has McCain at 40 or 41%), McCain will get at least 45% of the vote, more probably 46 or 47%. 

He seems to have jumped up to a  45% average in the latest (pre-second debate) polls.

In any event, a 4 or 5 point win means an electoral college landslide for Barack!