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The Man Who Has Debated Palin more than twenty times tells why Biden will have his hands full.
Read all about how tought a debater Palin has proven to be.
You have been forewarned, so for the last time, stop lowering expectations for her.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1001/p09s01-coop.htm
Excerpt:
On paper, the difference in experience on both domestic and foreign
policy is like the difference between shooting a bullet and throwing a
bullet. Unfortunately for Biden, if recent history is an indicator,
experience or a grasp of the issues won't matter when it comes to
debating Palin.
On April 17, 2006, Palin and I participated in a debate at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks on agriculture issues. The
next day, the Fairbanks Daily News Miner published this excerpt:
"Andrew
Halcro, a declared independent candidate from Anchorage, came armed
with statistics on agricultural productivity. Sarah Palin, a Republican
from Wasilla, said the Matanuska Valley provides a positive example for
other communities interested in agriculture to study."
On April 18, 2006, Palin and I sat together in a hotel coffee shop comparing campaign trail notes. As we talked about the
debates, Palin made a comment that highlights the phenomenon that Biden is up against.
"Andrew,
I watch you at these debates with no notes, no papers, and yet when
asked questions, you spout off facts, figures, and policies, and I'm
amazed. But then I look out into the audience and I ask myself, 'Does
any of this really matter?' " Palin said.





Comments (37)
Love it!
Keep raising her bar! Expect more of her, not less! The two should be held to the same standard. All this talk of Palin doing well is just what the Dr. ordered.
October 1, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is why I am doing it. After the past experiences with Gore, Liberman, and Edwards having being destroyed by those that they were expected to destroy, in their debates, I am amazed at all the people who are taking it for granted that Palin does not have a chance.
It is always sheer folly to lower the expectations for their candidate, and lower them for your candidate. Where the hell is the upside in that.
October 1, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Click Recommend so that more readers are made aware of this.
Here is a video of Palin in a debate, and she is dominating it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYaJkWUBP3s&eurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/why-sarah-palin-is-a-bett_n_130742.html
October 1, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
But the format's not a debate, is it? I thought it was more of an interview style in which case it's been mischaracterized.
That is if I'm understanding the format correctly ...
October 1, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You could lower the bar even more and she will still not be able to reach it. Debating a two-term state rep in Alaska is not the same thing as debating a long serving US Senator. Palin will do well to reach Dan Quayle's level of performance.
Andrew Halco just failed to tailor his message to the population. I used to live in Fairbanks, Alaska and while I was no longer a resident when Sarah Palin was elected, I was when Frank Murkowski was the Governor. Anyone could have beat him, but a Republican had an advantage. Tony Knowles had already served two terms and people didn't want him back. Andrew Halco was an independent with little support. Who cares what he thinks about Sarah Palin?
Remember, they are trying to win over the independent voters in the middle and undecided voters. She is going to choke big time.
October 1, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I bet you said the same thing about what Gore was going to do to Bush, and what skilled trial lawyer Edwards was going to do to Cheney. How did that work out for us.
October 1, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you would lose your bet. But that doesn't change the fact that Palin is in way over her head and will almost certainly make a major flub.
October 1, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please provide an specific example of how Gore was "destroyed" in the debates against Bush. My recollection is that Gore won on the issues but was perceived by the media as losing due to sighs, facial expressions, etc. Certainly not on substantive discussions of the actual issues. Bush was a hack in those debates.....and, frankly, the Kerry debates as well. F---, the only reason he even got to debate Kerry was because he was "installed" as president in 2000.
I don't recall anything from the 2000 VP debates other than being really freaked out by Cheney....but that's just me. funny how 8 years changes nothing.
October 1, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
So in the perceptions game, Gore lost.You just gave the examples. Gore got hammered for his attitude during the first debate, so he came to the second one with a entirely more docile approach, and of course that made him come across as a person who was just reinventing himself. The debates wiped out Gore's big lead in the polls. Just go back and look it up. That means that he did not live up to expectations.
October 1, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point taken, Liam. But, I hardly provided examples of how Gore was destroyed by Bush.....more like how Gore was destroyed by the post debate coloring of his performance. But I understand your point that there is no difference.
I keep thinking that actual words will outweigh perceptions/expectations. Silly, naive me. That's not how our elections work.
October 1, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The debates are more about stage craft than they are about mastery of details. Likability my friend, likability. That is a huge part of the game. That is why people gravitated to Shrub, and Reagan. I think that you are making a distinction, without a difference. Since Bush ended up with high favorable ratings, and Gore lost his big lead, because of their debate performances, then of course Bush destroyed Gore during the debates.
Policy wonks rarely know how to do aw shucks, I am just one of you folks. That is what did in Gore, Kerry, and the guy who debated Sarah more than two dozen times. Bill Clinton was a policy wonk, who had the rare gift of being able to present an aw shucks, down home persona.
October 1, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gore beat Bush in the popular vote, and won Florida. He was installed as President by the 5 Republican-appointed Supreme Court Justices. But its true, debates are won among the public based upon emotion, not logic. Same way elections are won.
October 1, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The more I hear about the details of this town hall format, with it's short 90 second answers, the less I'm liking it. I'm thinking it will not effectively expose Palin's utter lack of preparedness to be VP. Even if Biden is offered a rebuttal opportunity it would be how long, 60 seconds, or 30?
Palin will be able to easily B.S. her way through 90 seconds answer clips. Watch her spend at least half that time empathizing and otherwise feeling the pain of "Joe six-pack" before even starting to deliver ideological boilerplate B.S. about the actual question.
October 1, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw have a little faith, folks. We ought factor into the equation the moderator's intelligence-and I believe it's Gwen Ifill this time- as well as that of Biden. Intelligence in the broadest definition including emotional intelligence may be our side's secret weapon. Release the secret weapon!
October 1, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin will tell folksy small town stories instead of answering the questions. She will be in 'Joe 6-pack' persona and intentionally so. It will boost her support among core republican supporters who view her as an outside of DC reformer. I don't know how well it will play with undecided voters who want solution to the many problems facing the American people. She needs to step forward with some concrete proposals about what will be done to help the average American and I don't think 'talking point' answers will cut it with the people who matter most right now...the undecideds.
I think Biden will have a difficult time in the debate because his opponent cares not about specific issues or policies and she is only there to promote her 'brand'. I think that'll frustrate Biden in this debate. He is a policy wonk and lives to debate issues. The key is either Ifill or Biden will press Palin into responding to the questions in a substantive way rather than with "Golly gee, when I was in Alaska..." answers. I think the best tactic for Biden is to debate down at her level as much as he can and show the American people he is 'Joe 6-pack', and he was even when Palin was still in 2nd grade, while mixing in specific policy positions and proposals to help average Americans. Sure the American people want to elect someone who understands what they are going through but it is just as important that the person has a plan to help. But Palin does represent a challenge to him. I expect her to stay within her comfort zone...
October 1, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It probably won't be Ifill. The GOP is raising (at this late date) the issue of her Obama book as a prebut against her objectivity.
My guess is, Ifill will go out of her way to be nonpartisan, which will probably involve not pressing Palin much if at all.
October 1, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now let us focus on Joe Biden for a moment. Where is the proof that he is a great debater. He debated several times before the Iowa caucuses, and he ended up with just one delegate. I know all about his Rudy clip, but the post debate polls showed Hillary, Obama, Edwards, ranked way ahead of Biden.
Keep in mind, it is very difficult for a man to debate a woman candidate. Look at how much more relaxed Obama was against McCain, than he ever was against Hillary. She was free to aggressively attack him, but he could not do the same thing to her.
Palin is a very aggressive person, so I fully expect her to be on the attack, and Biden will not be able to do the same to her. That puts him at a huge disadvantage.
Palin a seasoned TV performer. She was on air nightly as a TV sports anchor.
She knows how to play to the camera.
She should be expected to win the debate.
When a Barricuda walks off with the Ms.Congeniality trophy, that is one smooth talking Barracuda.
October 1, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
A note for those who might not know liam or the larger point he's trying to make: He's promoting the idea of lowering Biden's bar and raising Palin's bar vis-a-vis the expectations game.
(Liam: with the new posters here, I thought this mght be useful as a guide for them.) :-)
October 1, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Libertine, a good post.
I expect Joe Biden will debate down to Palin's level. But let's pray he is able to pull it off without appearing to condescend- a really, really tough assignment.
He might have to adjust sideways rather than down, Palin's reality being one that's parallel to what works for the rest of us. Talk in her language, if that is what we mean.-Come to think of it how in the world does McCain talk to her??- But Biden has charm that more than matches hers. Maybe he can just kill her with kindness.
It may fall on Ifill to make this debate work, as part of her job is to help each candidate's message self-actualize. Hope she does a great job. Lehrer sure did last week.
October 1, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ms.Ifil is a PBS journalist. They never challenge anyone. I like Gwen, but do not expect her to morph into Tim Russert. What you got from Jim Lehrer is what you will get from Ms. Ifil.
October 1, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe. Maybe not.
A master of the non-answer? Uh.. I think not. It's hard for me to take this guy seriously. At any rate, what effect do you think it has to beg the Cafe to "stop lowering expectations" of her?
October 1, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not posting this for the few who comment. I am posting it for the many more who read TPM but never post comments. TPM sells ads based on the large number of readers it has, and not on the small number of comment posters.
October 1, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
And how is it that the silent masses are lowering expectations? Isn't it only those who make themselves heard who can do this?
October 2, 2008 2:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
How do you know that they are silent. People do talk to their contacts about what they have read in the papers, even though they do not write about it in the papers. I assume many of them behave the same way, about what they hear on radio, or read on sites such as TPM.
I have done so my whole life, and it is only during the past year or so that I have posted any of my opinions online.
None of my very large extended family have ever done so, but they sure do talk to a lot of people about politics.
October 2, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think they debated 20 times. There were many gubernatorial debates in AK but Palin didn't show up for most of them.
October 1, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you use the link, and read what the Christian Science Monitor wrote. Are you claiming that you can prove that he is not telling the truth when he claims that he debated Palin more than two dozen times? If you are, then I would like you to provide that proof, please.
October 1, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I looked it up. It came from this section in a Seattle Times article
"They note that Palin failed to appear at four major debates conducted during the 2006 general-election campaign that pitted her against former Gov. Tony Knowles and Andrew Halcro, an independent. Knowles said that when Palin did show up for debates, she typically kept a stack of cards cached behind her lectern's nameplate. Knowles said they were color-coded for different topics, full of notes, and that Palin constantly referred to them as she answered questions.
"When the questions came up, she would roll her fingers down to the right area ... ," Knowles said. "It was quite bizarre.""
I misremembered it to be that she showed up for four, not missed four. I stand corrected.
Article is here http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008151136_palin01m0.html
October 1, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden and Palin will show their true colors Thursday night.
The ratings will be off the charts. People will be looking for someone who demonstrates a thorough understanding of our nation's problems and how to solve them, not someone they'd like to have a beer or dress a moose with. That era is over.
Biden knows what he's dealing with. He's also a decent guy who exudes honesty and forthrightness. Palin is ruthless and deceitful. The contrast will be there for all to see. Low expectations, high expectations -- no matter.
October 1, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with your assessment of the contrast. But I think there is still a large portion of the electorate that will still vote with the "he/she's just like me" candidate. We heard that over and over with Palin before people got to know her. The reason people aren't supporting her is because of her lack of knowledge, extreme views and the ethics questions. Her negatives are so great that the folksy factor is muted.
October 1, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. She's good .Like many of you I/ve watched a video of her Alaska debates and decided she'll she'll come out of her debate with higher ratings.
In fact probably with a majority saying she "won" the debate.
But I don't think that'll be a game changer unless Biden not only loses but loses in a way that creates sympathy for her.
The nearest model I can think of for him is Obama's handling of McCain. Attack her positions, not her. No put downs. When she makes a mistake correct it as a discrete mistake but don't treat her the way McCain acted to Obama. "Senator Obama doesn't seem to understand" -which I think cost Mc the election.-
A good rule is that if we're satisfied tomorrow evening , that's probably bad news.
October 1, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The nation is a lot more diverse than the folks who consider themselves to be "Joe Six Pack". Biden doesn't have to debate "down" to Palin. Just look at their answers to Katie Couric about Roe V Wade: Biden, no BS, no patronizing or sermonizing, just reasonable, non-threatening, discussion. Palin, lots of pompous and disingenuous posturing which didn't even give her true position. She is over her head and it will show.
October 1, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The nation is a lot more diverse than the folks who consider themselves to be "Joe Six Pack". Biden doesn't have to debate "down" to Palin. Just look at their answers to Katie Couric about Roe V Wade. Biden, no BS, no patronizing or sermonizing, just reasonable, non-threatening, discussion. Palin, lots of pompous and disingenuous posturing which didn't even give her true position. She is over her head and it will show. He is comfortable and in command of the discussion without trying, and it will show.
October 1, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andrew Halcro is one of the smartest people in politics we've ever had in Alaska. Why didn't he beat Palin? Well, I would have voted for him, but he ran as an independent in a red state, wasn't all that well known statewide, and it was clear in the general election he wasn't going to pull the votes down. A few days before the election, the polls had Knowles, the Dem, and Palin just 1% apart. I felt I didn't have any choice but to vote for Knowles, although I wasn't wild about having him back as governor, either.
Honestly, we were so exhausted by the banal corruption and mendacity of Frank Murkowski that too many of us thought, "Oh well, any of them are better than that jerk again." He had the worst approval ratings of any governor in America--19 percent.
Halcro and Knowles are absolutely right--she was slippery as hell. Why do you think McCain pressed for this changed format in the debate? Because she's better at short, snappy talking points, not long, drawn-out, thoughtful answers and give-and-take. I can't believe Obama/Biden agreed to the change.
My prediction is she'll sound a wee bit smarter and/or confident than she has (not too hard anyway) because she won't have so much room to fill up with idiocies, and she'll be just snarky and aggressive enough to make it seem like she's "debating."
But who is she out to impress? The conservative/fundamentalists are all about her, no matter what. She'd have to kill one of her own children on stage to change their minds. And I'd like to think that enough of the undecided/leaners have already figured out her shtick that they won't be as bedazzled as they might have been earlier. She'd have to sound like Einstein at this point to reassure anybody who's unsure.
I hope. She IS a slippery little weasel. Not smart, but definitely cunning.
October 2, 2008 3:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that Palin will probably do well in the debate in most respects... however I don't think she can make herself look viable. I don't think it's going to make that much difference.
I think that as long as Joe handles himself well things will stay on course... I expect Palin will score some points with some well rehearsed lines etc. and I don't really expect gaffes from her tomorrow... I just don't think the fact that she can get through a debate will help her that much.
October 2, 2008 4:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
This blog is due to expire soon, so thanks to all of you who participated. I appreciate all your perspectives.
Be sure to send in your final campaign contributions as early this month as possible. They will need to know how much they will have on hand, to make their last big ad purchases for the final days.
Thanks again to you all.
October 2, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
The country's economic crisis--along with McCain's alarming response to it and his lousy econ policies--have rendered the VP debate pretty much irrelevant, it seems to me. Sure, there'll be huge viewership, and Palin will probably do fine in the format--but nobody's voting for Biden or Palin at this point. (And in any case, even if Palin greases her way through tonight, she's unlikely to convince most people at this point that she's really ready to be president.) These are tough times, and people are voting for president, not vice-president
October 2, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget about the debate--Sarah will NAIL the swimsuit competition.
October 2, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
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