Ack, sorry for the formatting. Here is the blockquotes from article better formatted (I hope).

We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. ... We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again.

We’re getting used to this relentless Obama operation: organizers trained in both tactics and campaign culture, working so hard they have trouble remembering what happened 48 hours ago – it’s too distant – and convinced that if they stay in their lane and trust the structure it’ll pay off in the end.

Obama has 40
offices now open in Missouri, and Justin Hamilton, Obama’s Press
Secretary for Missouri, told us that while he couldn’t confirm below or
above the published reports of 150 organizers (it didn’t come from the
campaign), the campaign is only adding to its ground force. Organizers
have now recruited 2500 neighborhood team leaders statewide, folks who
do the far more effective work than any 30-second ad or yard signs,
actual face-to-face contact and persuasion of their neighbors.

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen
doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add
up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single
Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each
other.

This is why the election will not be close. I am going to go out on a limb and say not only will Obama win, but he will be closer to 400 EV's than 300.

I participated in the Iowa caucuses. Obama's organization here was the best I've ever seen. Hillary's organization (or lack thereof) was a disaster and the #1 reason why she lost. And I say that as someone who volunteered for her.

My biggest fear is Obama will pull too far ahead in the polls and voters will think he's safe and not make the effort to get out and stand in line.

Predictions:

Barack wins every Kerry state.

Barack wins the easy pickups (Iowa, New Mexico).

Barack wins the 2004 battlegrounds (Ohio, Florida).

Barack wins the 2008 battlegrounds (Nevada, Colorado, Virginia).

Barack wins the red states that he challenged and the Repubs didn't think would be in play (North Carolina, Indiana)

Barack may well win some of the southern states where McCain's numbers are looking surprisingly soft (Georgia, Mississippi, Texas).

Barack may win Montana.

And he may win a state that hasn't been thought to be in play but could be a suprise (North Dakota? South Carolina? …Arizona?).

Crush, baby, crush.

I just want to get 61 "Democrats" in the Senate so we can kick Joe Lieberman to the curb.

(Yes, I've just bought the industrial-sized case of hubris. Dream big.)

It really is looking like Texas could be in play .
I will tell this story again- I drive folks to the airport for a living in Austin, Tx .Way back in our primary I had one high school prinicpal and five high school teachers that I was taking back to Austin Bergstrom airport after a CEE conference hear. All six were from Midland Odessa school district all six had for the first time ever voted a democrat -all six said they were also planning to vote democrat in the general election ...
Dream big indeed DAngelus ,,

While I hope for a crushing victory as much as the next guy, I hope they don't get unrealistically optimistic and spread their operations too thin. All Obama needs to do is hold the states he already has. One month is a long time.

Great post - you saved me doing the same one. The 538 series has been great as well as there polling data is the best period.

Here is one more scenario for you as well.

How many more principal/family surrogate stops can Obama, Michelle, Joe and Jill do than McCain Palin in 30 days in key states?

McCain and Palin are stuck together due to her incompetence almost every day and Cindy and the First Dude aren't out on their own...

If each person can do 2 events and a few interviews w/ local media a day do the math. Also the national media interviews that only McCain is allowed to do restricts them as well.

To support the ground game the Obama team gets someone where they need them easily. McCain cannot.

That also does not count Hillary, Bill, Bill Richardson who are out there as well. Heck Hillary is going to Arkansas this week, hmmm

When you add the above to the ground game the incompetence of the tactical driven McCain campaign is akin to political malpractice.

375 is Obama's ceiling. That is all the Kerry states plus IN,CO,NC,FL,OH,MO and NV. So far O is up in ALL those states except for IN and has just recently been up in MO. He has to keep ratcheting up his spending and his ground game has to keep working so he can get as many states as possible. I truly think he can reach 375 this election and touch 400 the next one.

Can anyone imagine John McCain giving an honorable concession speech? I sure can't.

Personally I am taking nothing for granted and acting like Obama is behind in the polls.

Gallup poll does poll cell phones. What I find most encouraging is that the age weighting of current polls is based on 2004 turnout. While it's pretty safe to say there will be more youth turning out I think it's very risky to simply assume it will be huge. Ever since rock the vote started youth turnout has always been predicted to be much higher than the last time and generally been over estimated. There is another problem here that some people are simply assuming Obama will win. Those people are less inclined to go and vote because they think it's in the bag. I met some of those people last weekend when I was registering voters at a busy night life strip here in Seattle. They were young and hadn't voted before. I was alarmed and reminded them that it won't happen if people don't vote based on that idea and also that we have to turn out in large enough numbers to override voter suppression efforts.

Another danger of assuming he has it in the bag (let alone landslide) is it's effect on the ground operations. There are thousands of volunteers across the country who have registered voters, made calls and are walking their neighborhoods. We are taking the time out of our busy lives to make a difference and it isn't always easy. Assuming we will win will cut heavily into that workforce as people will relax their efforts.

I got polled by Gallup last night. I told them I was voting for McCain because I don't want ANYONE thinking this is in the bag! Maybe we'll look back on it and say it WAS in the bag by early October, but we would be idiots to look forward a full month and assume it already is!

IF IF IF IF

Everyone keeps working hard for this election and Obama's field operations stay as good as they've been and the youth vote turns out in historically big numbers and the black vote turns out in historically big numbers, maybe it'll be a big win. It will not rival Reagan's EV totals - its crazy to even start thinking about that. Lets lock up the handful of states he really NEEDS to win and, after that, the rest is gravy. I wanna see the damn pot-roast before I start planning on the gravy.

I am worried?

Here in Ohio, Ive voted for Gore, Kerry, and the now the slime is getting ready to be dumped on Obama in the last 4 weeks thanks to the McCain campaign. If any of the polls in OH, MO, NC, VA, FL, or CO are still within the margin of error to go to either candidate, Im worried!!!!

I hope you are correct, but don't forget that the Republicans have their own community organizations. They're called churches and in 2004 they were "leveraged" very effectively by the Republicans (through the likes of Rick Warren) to win the election by suggesting it was unchristian not to vote for Bush because Kerry was pro-choice, pro-gay etc.

I know this, because I sat in a church when such a political sermon was given right before election day, 2004. I have since chosen not to be a part of a church. The politicization of religious beliefs is inconsistent with my faith.

Don't forget folks that this is a powerful apparatus for the right, who are now more enthused because they have "Bush in a skirt with lipstick".

No complacency. Donate and get involved.