It is fitting that McCain's HQ is in VA, the home of Robert E. Lee and the Confederacy. I am a Civil War history buff and what we are now seeing is the remarkably similar to the last days of the Confederacy and the defensive stand around Petersburg before the horrific week long retreat that ended with peace at Appomattox in April 1865.

If you missed it McCain has withdrawn from Michigan - the Wolverine state, home to  George Armstrong Custer. Yep, the Little Big Horn Custer. What a coincidence. Montana was where it occurred.

RCP now shows Obama with 264 EVs. We all know that the magic number is 270 EV's and there is a situation of what is being called the "nightmare" scenario where we could have a 269/269 tie and that is what McCain is reduced to now, the small chance of trying to tie and win with 1 EV peeled off of ME to avoid the Democratic Congress making Obama President.

Maine? Home of the greatest hero of the Civil War, Joshua Chamberlain, whose leadership of the 20th Maine at Little Round Top at the battle of Gettysburg likely saved the Union.  He was also selected by Grant to oversee the Confederacy's surrender of arms at Appomattox.

Yes Maine of all places. ME and NE are the only states that award EV's based on votes in Congressional districts and McCain is hoping to pick off ME 2, the more republican of the 2 ME districts and get that one EV.

Barack is trying the same thing in NE around Omaha with a big push there - but he has the money to try this insurance gambit. McCain is stretched thin already.

So here we are with 30 days to go and this is what McCain is reduced to:

Obama - 264 EVs, Needs to win ONLY ONE of CO (9), MO (8), VA (13), NC (15), FL (27), OH (20), IN (11) to win outright. Winning only NV (5) gets a tie - 269/269 and a win in the House. Hello 1876 and Rutherford B.Hayes. The NE EV would make it 270-268. Obama has at least 8 direct paths to victory.

McCain - Short of McCain getting any of the states that are now showing blue for Obama he only has one miniscule chance to win. There is literally no chance McCain is going to win PA. NH (4)  is also looking strong for Obama now. McCain thus needs some combo of the Nightmare Scenario as you will see below to eke out a victory:

• Needs to win ALL of the above states but NV(5) and get the Maine EV - He wins 270-268.
• Win all But NC (15) and peels off MN (10) or WI (10) and gets ME EV and voila - 270-268. Of course if Obama peels off the NE EV it is tied.
• Peel off NH and lose CO (9) only - TIE
• Peel of NH and Lose only MO (8), Obama wins NE EV - Tie, McCain wins ME EV - he wins 270-268
• Peel of NH(4) and MN (10) or WI (10) and Obama wins IN and MO - Tie
• Peel off PA (21) and lose NC(15) and IN (11) - Tie
• Peel off PA (21) and lose OH (20) and NV (5) - Win 270-268 unless Obama wins NE EV. If  McCain wins the Maine EV here he wins.
• Peel off PA (21) and NH (4) and lose only VA (13) and MO (8) and CO (9) - Tie

I am sure there are more wild combos of the remaining states to add more here but you see the dwindling options for McCain starkly above. I just do not see him winning MN,WI or PA. NH is an outside but dwindling shot as well.

Of course if Mark is right and Montana (3) goes for Obama then the nightmare scenarios are all moot. Wouldn't it be fitting if the state of Custer's last stand was the one that ended McCain's dishonorable campaign?

PS - If you ever get a chance to visit Petersburg and take the retreat route tour to Appomattox I highly suggest it. Appomattox is a beautiful little spot and a great place to reflect on the history of this great country. Joshua Chamberlain also wrote a book that is out in paperback about the last few weeks of the war, the retreat and surrender or arms that he oversaw that is exceptional reading.