The new polls out from Quinnipiac today in OH, PA and FL appear to show game changing momentum for Obama as a result of McCain's self immolation during this economic crisis.

These polls seem to validate the first 2 states where we saw the "canary in the coal mine"  in McCain's campaign firewall - VA and NC -where in the last week we saw a real shift in NC (-11) coming into play and VA (-6) swinging toward Obama.

There was push back from the McCain camp on the Quinnipiac polls today:

“These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2%, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the volume of campaigning in those states, we expect that they are close to the national track – if not tighter.”

Ah, I love the smell of Republican Panic, especially in the morning. I hate to tell the McCain camp something but they are wrong. If the data below is a true indication of the loss of support for McCain coming after his Palin bounce and due to this crisis these polls are pretty close to spot on.

Unfortunately there is not a lot of poll data on some states but I thought I would check both Obama leaning states where we had seen some "Palin effect" and see what their movement had been and then some strong McCain states and see if they showed some sort of consistent change.

This is NOT scientific in that I cannot compare the same data from the same pollster 2-3 weeks ago and now this week BUT they all show the same trend away from McCain as we are seeing in the Battleground states at roughly the same %. 

Obama States (Net Change)

• OR: +8
• WA : +9
• MI : +10
• MN : No updated data
• WI : +4 (9/22)
• NM: +6
• NJ : +7

McCain States (Net Change)

• GA : -8 (SUSA) - 2 weeks apart
• TN : -8
• AL : -7
• KY : -7
• WY : -17
• ID : -13

Since this is not a purely scientific comparison the specific number that the election has moved is hard to peg precisely BUT it is clear from the states above, the national polls and the Q'Piac polls today that the movement away from McCain the last 2 weeks so is in the 5-10% range which is unprecedented other than the last 2 weeks of the 1980 election, after the last debate when the polls showed a huge move to Reagan.

The word Landslide is now coming up in the MSM as well - including Chuck Todd on "Morning Joe" today and he has been very conservative in his polling predictions.

Even on RCP 2 weeks ago they had McCain +1 now Obama is +5 - again showing a swing in the range we see above. Throw out the GWU Battleground poll which has been an outlier on the low side and Obama would be +6 or a shift of 7-8 points in the last 2 weeks.

To the idiots who have run the McCain campaign like a political version of "Ripley's Believe it or Not" :

This is not rocket science and people are not stupid. You cannot pick an unqualified idiot as VP, be pathological liars, pull stunts like Suspensiongate, be clueless on the economy, let Palin show us she is a moron in interviews and behave like a rude and grumpy old man in the debates and expect people to not run away from you.

Meanwhile Obama makes all the right moves, looks like a President every day and in the debates and he, Joe and their spouses are out working you 3 or 4 to one in appearances in battleground states while you have to babysit and appear with Mooselini every day and go to Iowa yesterday, with 35 days left, where you never had a chance anyway.

And yes John, Obama understands strategy (and execution). The bigger question is do you even understand tactics or just erratic behavior?