DA:

I did not 'rule it out'. Note that i did say there were possible events that could completely derail McCain.

But they would have to be so completely off-the-chart that they would turn nearly ALL states BLUE.

But short of that, McCain has nearly 165 EVS locked up - and no amount of discussion or debating or mainstream campaigning is going to alter that. So people need to accept it - and stop obsessing (or worrying) about the probable coming contraction in the numbers.

And exactly why is a 375-153 win any more valid or convincing than a 325-203 win?

Thank you for the cautionary note, and I'll admit that I've gotten rather addicted to the slow, creeping rise ........ and terrified of even a percentage point drop. But it IS going to happen, has already started happening on the national poll - not much, but in the wrong direction.

Frankly, I really don't WANT to think again about the possibility, however remote, that McCain and Palin might win. Particularly because of Palin, the thought is beyond-bearable terrifying. And terrified people aren't as smart as non-terrified people. (Which, I guess, is why Palin is running around trying to terrify folks.... because they really, really need the voters to be dumb.)

Recc'd

I should maybe print this and frame it and look at it every morning and every night. maybe print another copy and laminate it and keep it with me.

Repeat after me..."No panic, no panic, no panic..."

:)

We are "fans" of movie stars and rock singers. Politics is not entertainment, THEREFORE it is serious.

Stop the childishness on the point.

No, Obama has NOT peaked. Keep watching the polls.

Okay, I hear your message. I do think a landslide is possible here... but don't want to get carried away and also don't want any of us to get complacent.

The voter supression has gone fully active and we have to have a cheating margin of error win...

I will post here again information about how 3 million votes were not counted in 2004. I don't know how many are tossed each election. I personally feel voters should be notified anytime their vote is not counted and told why...i.e. what happened.

RFK's 'Is Your Vote Safe': http://www.truthout.org/article/rfk-jr-and-mike-papantonio-is-your-vote-safe

Greg Palast's 'Rove Has Already Fixed 2008 Election': http://www.truthout.org/video/greg-palast-rove-has-already-fixed-2008-election

Combined Effort of RFK and Palast at:
StealBackYourVote.org

I'm just wondering how you determined that Obama has reached the ceiling?

It seems to me that as long as Sarah Palin keeps shooting off her mouth, and John McCain keeps looking more and more out of touch, and the economic news worsens, there are more nominal Republicans that may be picked off.

I think there are a lot of people who wouldn't want their daughter to marry a black man who would have less trouble voting for him for President.

70% of Americans disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing. I see that as the absolute ceiling for Obama.

From fivethirtyeight

What is Obama's Ceiling?

This post is going to seem slightly less relevant now that Gallup has come in showing an 11-point lead for Obama. But the other five daily tracking polls (yes, there are now that many trackers) all showed movement toward John McCain.

Between the Gallup result and Obama's very strong state polling, I am inclined to think that this particular ebb in the tracking polls is mostly statistical noise. That notwithstanding, it's worth considering Chris Bowers' point at Open Left. What, realistically, is Obama's ceiling in this election?

The better a candidate's standing in the polls, the harder it ought to be pick up additional support. In part, this is simply because the more voters that you have in your column, the fewer there are available to convert. But this is still a highly partisan country, we tend to have close elections, and things certainly aren't going to be any easier for a black candidate.

If Obama is ahead by something like 7-8 points ahead nationally, that means that he has persuaded just about all of the persuadables, and he's left looking to covert people like those in Ben Smith's anecdote.

An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks.

"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."

If those sorts of people are the undecideds -- and when Obama is winning Pennsylvania by 12 points or something, that's probably what we're looking at -- then Obama really is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Further gains are going to be difficult to come by, which means that his polls are more likely to go down than to continue going up. (Indeed, our model assumes that the race will tighten some).

Then again, when six out of ten Americans thinks we're headed for a depression, perhaps the ordinary rules go out the window.

A few of oyu are pitifully naive about politics - and voters.

in case many of YOU had not noticed - the economy has tanked - and McCain retains his nearly 200 EV base. In fact, in some RED states, his leads have widened this past 2 weeks.

I repeat - McCain has a base of about 165 EVs that, barring the appearance of incipient drooling or incontinence during the final debate, he is going to retain no matter what.

While a 375 EV landslide is possible (less than that is not a 'landslide'), it is unlikely. IN fact, some CONTRACTION of the Obama lead is likely in the closing weeks - negative campaigns having usually had SOME effect in the past.

And we can only go by the past when it comes to evidence and likelihoods.

Of course, this may be a fundamental game-changing election and ALL the pollsters could be wrong (drastically undercounting new voters and the youth vote) - but most pollsters have tried to account for this.

All I am saying is do NOT become despondent or depressed if the ceiling numbers retreat somewhat in the final weeks. U am confident that Obama is going to win - just not that the elction will produce the margins we see right now.

I fully expect the race to tighten between now and November... but, I still expect Obama to win.

All that's necessary to make me happy is 270 :)

I'm beginning to think that that wasn't the ceiling moment, although it felt like it at the time (and we'd still do well to remember not to panic if there is a dip). But the polls I follow (a convoluted system of no proven value except the combination 'feels right' to me) were starting to stabalize and maybe dip two days ago are headed back up to again, rather steeply. The only factors I can see to account for it are the debate and the increasingly vile, nasty stuff coming from McCain and Palin.

VERY interesting radio interview of John Zoogby on local NPR yesterday. He says that in 2008 there is absolutely NO empirical evidence to show that negative campaigning works. It's worked in the past, but there are no indicators to say that it is working this year. If it did, he pointed out, Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney would have been the nominees. Instead the winners have been Obama and McCain (who in the primary was pretty non-negative) and the other surprise success was Mike Huckabee, who certainly didn't take the negative route.

I hope with all my heart that McCain and Palin lose, because they terrify me, and any reason at all would be acceptable ....... but if they lost, badly, because of the nasty, hate-filled, rabble-rousing way they are running, that would be incredibly sweet!

Dow Down over 600 at the moment... 10 minutes to go...