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It's Not 1929, It's 1989

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Due to the monetary blackmail being leveled at the people of the United
States by it's financial ruling class and the subsequent banking crisis
and stock market drop caused by their unregulated greed, I suppose it's
only natural that our myopic press would equate this disaster with the
great crash of 1929. I submit it's more likely that this is but a
symptom of a wider crisis that should instead recall events from 60
years later.



In 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, it signaled the end for the Soviet
empire.  It's rulers had foolishly believed they could spend whatever
they wanted - so long as they could maintain military parity with the
US, their people would have to wait. But they had actually bankrupted
themselves in doing so. Their war of choice in Afghanistan, far from
extending their empire and redrawing the map of the Middle East and
Central Asia, bogged down into a bloody slog against a native
insurgency. It demonstrated not the awesomeness of their military but
its severe limits as a tool of political power. Their humiliating
withdrawal combined with their obvious economic ability to do anything
about it - and to do anything for their own people - accelerated the
unraveling of their entire governing philosophy and the Communist Party
lost it's grip on power.



Sound familiar? The Bush administration has wasted at least a trillion
dollars on a military adventure that that has met none of it's
strategic goals. It has provided a recipe to our enemies for future
asymmetric warfare and has so degraded our military readiness and
reputation as to make future attacks more likely,while emboldening
emerging empires. And here's the key: in one of the greatest acts of
moral and political cowardice in the history of government, Bush has
refused to accept any responsibility to pay for his catastrophic war.
Thinking he could stick his successors with the price tag, George Bush
bet the farm he could win and get out before the bill came due. This
entirely predictable failure of leadership has left us at the mercy of
the world financial machinery he used to borrow the money to pay for
what he was (rightly!) afraid to ask his own citizens to provide. No
matter what lipstick John McCain tries to put on the Iraqi pig it's
been a colossal failure and may now do for Republicanism - or worse for
American democracy - what Afghanistan did for Communism.



How quickly could our very ability to govern unravel? Even in February
1989, near the end of the Afghan disaster, few in Moscow would have
thought - or been willing to admit - that they'd have completely lost
control before the end of the year.  Can we avoid the same fate?
Certainly not if the Republicans are left in charge. If Obama wins it
will still be a very difficult road indeed. But if Progressives are
going to continue to claim
to be the reality-based community, then I say Obama's embrace of a
rescue plan for the financial industry is actually a glass that's half
full. Because as abhorrent as many of us find the necessity,
recognizing that just because their attempt to blackmail the taxpayers
into forking over another trillion or so is an outrageous crime, that
doesn't mean they don't have us by balls. If they have nothing else to
lose the Republicans and their moneyed masters will surely drag us all
down with them.



So here's to hoping the glass really is half full.  That Obama sees
that handwriting on it and has decided to grit his teeth, pay the
bribe, and get on with rebuilding the country before the Wall of
ignorance and arrogance erected by by George Bush, John McCain and the
Republican Party crushes us all as it comes tumbling down.


Comments (7)

Nice analogy. Our 40 year run at Empire was fast and furious and ultimately doomed to failure like every imperial quest before us.

I believe we will see a progressive renaissance in this country that includes republicans, independents and democrats. I think we will finally have a president who helps us craft a national strategy that makes sense and then considers every tactic to accomplish those goals, both liberal and conservative.

This is the sort of evolution of governing that can only happen as part of a generational shift in power.

The current financial situation is international, brought about by a specific methodology and lack of oversight in the PRIVATE BANKING SECTOR! As you might be aware - the USSR had a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SYSTEM OF ECONOMICS. Communism isn't a political party like the GOP (although there is ALSO a communist party).

The ONLY way that this analogy is germane is that both the USA and USSR were bogged down in Afghanistan when their crisis hit. As to causality and mechanics - it's like apples and bowling balls.

If progressives are going to be seen as reality based community - they will learn SOMETHING about the actual situation before they post nonsense. The GOP isn't the only party with wingnuts.

It think he was speaking more to the fall of neoconservative ideology rather than this specific economic symptom of that disease. I could be wrong, but I thought it was a fairly cogent argument. Wingnuts on both sides of the aisle are lot more strident.

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Indeed Jason, thank you, my point has nothing to do with banking or economic systems or the differences in governing philosophy, such as they are, between communist totalitarianism and Bush's unitary executive, but rather the fragility of empires once they lose the ability to project power through whatever mechanism. Anyone who thinks that just because we're supposed to be the good guys we are immune from this phenomenon is in for a rude awakening.

What's needed here is not a bailout, but a WPA-style program.

People are going to lose their jobs, bailout or not. We need to start planning for that, the actual symptom of the crisis, as opposed to trying to retroactively prevent the crisis by inflating already-inflated paper.

Let's walk through both the contingencies:

Bailout:
1.) $700,000,000,000.00 floats from the taxpayers to banks, hedge funds, and the few remaining investment firms. These entities hold people's retirement and savings hostage.

2.) These firms are rapidly losing money on leveraged investements based on mortgages. Some money wouldn't hurt them, but at the end of the day, the bad paper is still based on mortgages.

3.) The only way this works is if the $700,000,000,000.00 tides the whole industry over until property values legitimately rise to their current-say inflated prices. Now, that will happen, someday, but values are so overinflated that it will take years for that to happen. Do you think $700,000,000,000.00 will hold over the entire industry for years? It will not.

4.) After the money runs out, these same firms that we tried to save are once again in dire trouble, and still holding hostage everyone's savings. The resulting lack of confidence in the market leads to a deeper recession, unemployment, etc.

No Bailout:
1.) Same as above, except we skip to number 4.)

2.) The government gets to keep $700,000,000,000.00, and use it to start public service and works programs to deal with the resulting unemployment.

...and that's really it. The crux of all this is basically; "Do you want the unemployment to happen now, while it can be blamed on Bush, and the government gets to use its money more wisely?" or "Do you want the unemployment to happen later, under Obama, guaranteeing a 1-term presidency?"

Blah! I guess I'm beating a dead horse here.

What really needs to be done now, is for us to plan how to deal with the now-delayed unemployment surge.

...and we get the added joy of doing this while the GOP pins the blame on Obama! Yay!

Customer0012, that 700b is not even going to hold the industry three months, but as you know they are not getting it in a lump sum and we the taxpayers are not getting equity.

Actually, I think this was one of the worst ways the gov could have used such a pool of liquidity.

Sleon has in interesting insight and yes the Iraq war has been bleeding us economically, but kgb999 is also right...this is a global problem. We are hemorrhaging liquidity right now and have to find someway to stop the flow.

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