get out the early vote!
during the primaries, i was surprised time and again how little attention was paid to the impact of early voting. much was made of hrc's sudden shift in nh to her being more accessible and "softer", especially her "choke-up" moment. it was widely suggested that that was what delivered her "comeback" at the last minute and kept her in the race. others brought up the possibility of a "bradley effect." i think it was early voting.
on super tuesday hrc continued to benefit from early voting. ca, ma., nj (there were others, too) showed this trend. the weeks leading up to those primaries hrc had big leads in those states which obama always narrowed, sometimes dramatically (remember ca!), as the primary approached. as the votes were being counted, hrc jumped to early leads only to see those margins reduced as all the votes were tallied. because early and absentee ballots are stacked up and ready to go as polls close, they're counted first. preliminary leads as precincts report reflect the early and absentee ballots.
missouri, on the other hand, was close as could be all night. obama pulled out a narrow victory there late that night. the difference: no early voting in missouri. the result was remarkably similar to polling data prior to voting. no detectable "bradley effect" either.
florida also provided an interesting example. it was the only state i actually read any analysis of this phnomenon. of voters who cast ballots on the day of the florida primary more chose obama than hrc. her margin of victory was made up of early and absentee ballots. remember, she maintained huge polling margins for months. obama made tremendous inroads, but that movement didn't begin until after hundred of thousands of early and absentee ballots were already cast.
i bring this up now because i just caught a clip of chris mathews' "big number." he claims fully 33% of ballots for this election will be cast early and have just begun in many states. if the primaries are any guide, obama couldn't have picked a better time to surge in the polls. get out the early vote!
on super tuesday hrc continued to benefit from early voting. ca, ma., nj (there were others, too) showed this trend. the weeks leading up to those primaries hrc had big leads in those states which obama always narrowed, sometimes dramatically (remember ca!), as the primary approached. as the votes were being counted, hrc jumped to early leads only to see those margins reduced as all the votes were tallied. because early and absentee ballots are stacked up and ready to go as polls close, they're counted first. preliminary leads as precincts report reflect the early and absentee ballots.
missouri, on the other hand, was close as could be all night. obama pulled out a narrow victory there late that night. the difference: no early voting in missouri. the result was remarkably similar to polling data prior to voting. no detectable "bradley effect" either.
florida also provided an interesting example. it was the only state i actually read any analysis of this phnomenon. of voters who cast ballots on the day of the florida primary more chose obama than hrc. her margin of victory was made up of early and absentee ballots. remember, she maintained huge polling margins for months. obama made tremendous inroads, but that movement didn't begin until after hundred of thousands of early and absentee ballots were already cast.
i bring this up now because i just caught a clip of chris mathews' "big number." he claims fully 33% of ballots for this election will be cast early and have just begun in many states. if the primaries are any guide, obama couldn't have picked a better time to surge in the polls. get out the early vote!
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