Wow! That is his biggest margin, and highest percentage, ever!
It is unbelieveable! He should be reverting to the mean (like some of the other polls show), not expanding his lead. And this is all pre-debate II.
w00t!
Candide - you beat me to it!
This is huge. I had been expecting Senator Obama to exceed the 50% threshold in Gallup's tracking poll sometime this week. Can't stress enough how significant this is.
As some of you know, I am a mathematician & statistician professionally. Won't bore you by delving into details, but rather just ask you to accept my word for it: Gallup is one of the most reputable and reliable polling organizations out there. This result, from there organization, really means good things are happening.
I'd like to be optimistic, but there are still so many unknowns in this election... like if the people being polled are lying for fear of appearing racist.
There is a theory that says that you can scrap 5-7% off of any margin that Obama has. I hope it's wrong, but I'm not sure.
Time will tell.
Very true. Sadly, my model still shows both NH and OH going (R) despite recent polling data.
Nevertheless, the remaining avenues for a McCain victory are closing quickly. At this point, barring any sort of "alien-head" moment between now and Nov (e.g. Senator Obama tears off his scalp to reveal he is from the Orion Nebula), I don't see a realistic way he loses the electoral college even under a 6% shift.
But wouldn't you think the supposed 6% he'll lose because he's black is already baked into the cake?
Why would people lie to pollsters on the phone? Wouldn't they just say they are voting for McCain?
If that is the case he'd really be up by 17% and isn't that closer to where we think he should be?
Sadly, not necessarily. Many of the state-level polls (though not all) still exhibit a healthy "undecided" percentage. Who are these people? Why are they still undecided? And perhaps most importantly of all, which way will they break?
The most recent shifts I have seen of undecided voters does indicate a slight preference for Senator Obama - but overall the shifts have been small and there remain many nominally undecided voters.
I can't help but recall with... hmmm.. not dread but maybe apprehension many of the primary contests, in which 'day-of' deciders broke overwhelming for Senator Clinton. Some of the movement could surely be explained by her name recognition in conjunction with the fact that her's and Senator Obama's policies were relatively similar compared to Senator McCain's. But how much can be explained?
I really do hate sounding like I'm a concern troll. For the record, I believe Senator Obama has the election in the bag, but I do think the polling numbers we are seeing will not necessarily be close to the final tally's.
Carville was (wisely) unwilling to expound on his recent musings, and seemed to sort of catch himself before saying something that does not need to be said publicly right now. The gist of it was this: That at the level of presidential elections, a 5% margin of victory is a veritable landslide, and that it would definitely indicate something ugly if, given the current margins in the polls, Obama ends up winning a squeaker.
Maybe the mass public is actually seeing this Ayers things for what it is (Desperation) and find it troubling. My faith is restoring..
Wow! That is his biggest margin, and highest percentage, ever!
October 8, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is unbelieveable! He should be reverting to the mean (like some of the other polls show), not expanding his lead. And this is all pre-debate II.
October 8, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
w00t!
October 8, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Candide - you beat me to it!
This is huge. I had been expecting Senator Obama to exceed the 50% threshold in Gallup's tracking poll sometime this week. Can't stress enough how significant this is.
As some of you know, I am a mathematician & statistician professionally. Won't bore you by delving into details, but rather just ask you to accept my word for it: Gallup is one of the most reputable and reliable polling organizations out there. This result, from there organization, really means good things are happening.
October 8, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to be optimistic, but there are still so many unknowns in this election... like if the people being polled are lying for fear of appearing racist.
There is a theory that says that you can scrap 5-7% off of any margin that Obama has. I hope it's wrong, but I'm not sure.
Time will tell.
October 8, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true. Sadly, my model still shows both NH and OH going (R) despite recent polling data.
Nevertheless, the remaining avenues for a McCain victory are closing quickly. At this point, barring any sort of "alien-head" moment between now and Nov (e.g. Senator Obama tears off his scalp to reveal he is from the Orion Nebula), I don't see a realistic way he loses the electoral college even under a 6% shift.
October 8, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
But wouldn't you think the supposed 6% he'll lose because he's black is already baked into the cake?
Why would people lie to pollsters on the phone? Wouldn't they just say they are voting for McCain?
If that is the case he'd really be up by 17% and isn't that closer to where we think he should be?
October 8, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, not necessarily. Many of the state-level polls (though not all) still exhibit a healthy "undecided" percentage. Who are these people? Why are they still undecided? And perhaps most importantly of all, which way will they break?
The most recent shifts I have seen of undecided voters does indicate a slight preference for Senator Obama - but overall the shifts have been small and there remain many nominally undecided voters.
I can't help but recall with... hmmm.. not dread but maybe apprehension many of the primary contests, in which 'day-of' deciders broke overwhelming for Senator Clinton. Some of the movement could surely be explained by her name recognition in conjunction with the fact that her's and Senator Obama's policies were relatively similar compared to Senator McCain's. But how much can be explained?
I really do hate sounding like I'm a concern troll. For the record, I believe Senator Obama has the election in the bag, but I do think the polling numbers we are seeing will not necessarily be close to the final tally's.
Carville was (wisely) unwilling to expound on his recent musings, and seemed to sort of catch himself before saying something that does not need to be said publicly right now. The gist of it was this: That at the level of presidential elections, a 5% margin of victory is a veritable landslide, and that it would definitely indicate something ugly if, given the current margins in the polls, Obama ends up winning a squeaker.
October 8, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the mass public is actually seeing this Ayers things for what it is (Desperation) and find it troubling. My faith is restoring..
October 8, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink