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CRISIS - and Confidence

Those of you in the financial industry, like myself, may share the same tight gut I have had for the last two weeks. Bush is scheduled to speak today, and I wager few will find his voice reassuring. Perhaps if Bush was flanked by Clinton, Bernanke, Volcker, Greenspan and other reputable leaders, each with their turn to speak, the country may respond. Frankly, our leaders owe us details, data, and a good explanation. This is truly one of those times a Ross Perot hour of basic economics would be valuable. The message must be about calm as must be the tone; we must act in opposition to our instincts at this point. The media must mirror this message, not fan flames.
Pension funds and mutual funds (mutuals account for about $26 trillion of the market) are bound by their obligations to their owners to move into "safer" investments in times like these. Imagine the price pressure as the largest segment of the stock market suddenly wants to sell and move to bonds, treasuries, or gold. And that is what is happening here.
If you do not need investment money, do not sell.Your deposits are insured up to $250,000 by the government; do not go to the bank.Go to work, and continue to do your job.
We will certainly need the assistance of our government, and we need transparency and open communication.
Fundamentally, this crisis is about residential real estate. And the government, FNMA/FHLMC and banks need to go through their mortgage portfolios and report the true data to the public. - We have a right to know which banks have the most exposure, and which have the least. - We have a right to know which states/cities have the most exposure.
FDR, speaking in his fireside chats, spoke famously about fear. Personally, I prefer contemporary Sci-Fi author Frank Herbert's mantra, "fear is the mind killer..." and there are others out there. We must face our fears, and not succumb to our panic instincts now. We must act together, and not craft hasty policies, but ones that are targeted to the places that need help most. And above all, we must not be hasty ourselves, even though our reptilian instincts are no doubt sending strong messages. 


Comments (4)

If I were a CEO, any CEO, I would have a statement on the front page of my website. It would honestly address this situation. Here is just a brief proposal for a "good" community bank and a food company:

Bank:
I know many of you are worried about this crisis. I certainly am. We at CommunityBank learned some hard lessons from the last S&L and real estate crisis, and are grateful our leadership steered us successfully out. As a result, we have continued lending policies intended to keep us in business for centuries, not just through the next quarter or deal. We missed out on some profits, and turned down many loans.

Now for the data. First, your deposits here are insured up to $250,000. They are safe. Second, of the assets we have, 50% are loans, 40% are invested in bonds, and 5% are invested in our physical locations, and 5% is actual cash. Of the 50% loans, less than 1% are less than 90 days past due. Our borrowers are doing OK. Third, to our shareholders. We will no doubt make less money this year. But things will improve, as they always do. FInally, to our employees. Come to work, and do your job well. We will not lay off employees this year or next year. Our executives have committed to cutting their pay by 20% so we can do so. That is the best we can do.

So thank you for your continued business, thank you for investing in us for the long term, and thank you for your hard work. Take a breath. We will get through this.

Food company:
People will be relying on us more than ever before, and we have a solemn duty to this region to do our jobs better than before. We do not need to use commercial paper, and we are not shut out of the credit markets. We pay our suppliers and workers within 30 days, and our customers pay us within 45 days. That leaves us 15 days we need to cover; we have $xx,xxx,xxx in our bank account right now and a line of credit for $xx,xxx,xxx. This is enough to cover 60 days. The line of credit costs more than we would like. Shareholders, we will not make as much this year...

You get the idea.

Now companies that are not in good shape are going to need to be equally honest, and their CEOs are going to need to propose realistic solutions.

People have a right to know, especially now.

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"Your deposits are insured up to $250,000 by the government."

Our government has no money. The only way they can back our deposits is to borrow money from other nations, if those nations are reckless enough to further invest in a busted USA. Then we, the people, and our children and grandchildren have to pay back all those loans with interest.

WRoss - take a look at history. Americans bought War bonds, and that took both confidence and leadership from FDR. We've done it before, even if the world can't or won't help.

The Dow and other indexes are dropping because there are more sellers than buyers. But make no mistake, the sellers get cash from their trades. And this cash can be used to buy bonds.

But I agree, we the people must pay this back, with interest. But I'd much rather have that than the alternative!

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Alaska, Americans today have a negative savings rate. We have no money to invest in our government.

On top of the current mess, in a few months securitized credit card debt will crash. I see no way toward a healthy economy in the USA for a long time.

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