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Chris Rock and the Polls
Chris Rock said something interesting on one of the talking head shows the other day.
Basically, in looking at Obama's lead in the polls, Rock said that a black man has to knock a white man out. "There's no such thing as a close decision. If it's close, the white man's gonna win."
I am not saying that Diebold is going to fix the election, only that late breakers are going to break against Obama, partially due to some white people not wanting to vote for a black man (or woman for that matter).
I also think the polls are overstating Obama's lead due to the Bradley effect.
Finally, the level of the attacks on Obama as a "terrorist" a "traitor" and "kill him" are not the sort of things that put "Country First." Indeed, this sort of partisanship leads to an ungovernable situation for whoever wins. In this sense, I find myself agreeing with Peggy Noonan (never thought that would happen). There is a direct and causal link between hatespeech of the kind that is being spoken by McCain and Palin and violence. I feel like I am watching George Wallace and "Bombs Away" Curt Lemay.
Comments (4)
Almost sounds like that crowd was at a rally for a certain kind of party during the Jim Crow era.
October 7, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think we're going to see a Bradley effect. The Obama campaign is much better organized. Our side is going to get people to the polls in greater numbers, and if they GOP tries to defraud the electorate like they did in 2000 (and possibly 2004, though that's not as clear), then the Obama campaign will fight more aggressively to have the votes counted, both in the courts and in the court of public opinion. Also, the number of states using paperless voting has gone down since 2004 because of public outcry.
That said, though, I certainly would like to see O stay 7 to 12 points up or better in the national polls, through election day. Because I've been wrong about other things, and because I don't want to be biting my nails until the votes are counted in Colorado. Because if it comes down to one state, Diebold could rig it, but if it's a landslide, I really don't think they could.
October 7, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
agree completely. You made my point more elegantly than I. If Obama wins, it will be a landslide. He won't win a close election. McCain will.
October 7, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has always been my understanding that the "Bradley effect" describes the tendency of people, when they are being polled in person (i.e. an exit poll) to lie about who they voted for out of embarrassment. Many of the polls now are conducted by touch-tone on the phone (like the one I did the other night) or on-line. How can we say that those numbers reflect a Bradley effect? In other words, why would anyone lie (in the interest of looking progressive) to a touch pad on a phone? In other words, I don't buy this Bradley effect stuff. I will buy it for exit polls only, but not the polls we are seeing now.
October 7, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
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