« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Why McCain Unequivocally Lost The Debate
I have been reading people's reactions to the debate, looking at the polls and analyzing them. Looking at things from an historical standpoint. Outside of the normal reasons I've been hearing, such as "McCain was overly aggressive", or "McCain condescended to Obama" or "Independents preferred Obama", etc., which are all completely valid and I agree with, there are a couple of other points to be made.
The first one is one that James Fallows over at The Atlantic, who states the point better than I could:
When the details of this encounter fade, as they soon will, I think theBut outside of that point, which in and of itself disqualifies McCain from a win in the debate, is the central theme of this election: change.
debate as a whole will be seen as of a piece with Kennedy-Nixon in
1960, Reagan-Carter in 1980, and Clinton-Bush in 1992.
In each
of those cases, a fresh, new candidate (although chronologically older
in Reagan's case) had been gathering momentum at a time of general
dissatisfaction with the "four more years" option of sticking with the
incumbent party. The question was whether the challenger could stand as
an equal with the more experienced, tested, and familiar figure. In
each of those cases, the challenger passed the test -- not necessarily
by "winning" the debate, either on logical points or in immediate
audience or polling reactions, but by subtly reassuring doubters on the
basic issue of whether he was a plausible occupant of the White House
and commander in chief.
As anyone who has paid even a lick of attention to this election knows, McCain ran a campaign the entire summer on the theme of "experience". At the Republican Convention, he officially ceded the theme of the election, abandoning the "experience" message for the one Obama had established from the beginning of his campaign: "change". Though he had used a different word, "reform", the message was clear: this is a Change Election.
The debate was McCain's chance, perhaps his last, to prove that he was the candidate of change, or "reform". Obama, by contrast, had nothing to prove with regards to the message of "change" -- he has been running a campaign on the theme for 18 months. And unfortunately for him, he was not able to do that. The biggest piece of "change" McCain was able to propose was a spending freeze. And that was a failure, because he proposed freezing all spending except military spending. People don't like hearing that education and health care spending would be frozen.
McCain presented himself not as a candidate of change, but as the older, experienced candidate. He presented himself under the old message of his campaign, not the new one. As I said, it was perhaps his last chance to define himself as a candidate of change or reform, and he failed. Where does this leave him? Between a rock and a hard place. In a way, we may look back on this first debate as the time McCain didn't just lose, but gave the election to Obama.
Advertisement
Comments (54)
I like your analysis ChronoSpark. People just want to be comfortable enough with Obama to take that leap of faith. He showed that he's a steady leader; and thus put the "experience" debate to bed.
After these 8 miserable years, we're so thirsty for a "Reason to Believe" again, as long as he shows that he belongs, he's in...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFe5vDXyMeA
I love Barack Obama.
September 27, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, and I agree. People wanted to make sure that Obama was up to the task of the Presidency. He proved it. Period.
September 27, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are delusional. Obama is an empty suit who has accomplished nothing. Listen to what he says, then look at what he does. He claims to support the 2nd amendment, but he voted for every gun ban bill proposed. He claims he will lower taxes, yet voted against every tax cut bill he could. He is simply a liar, a socialist who wants to trick people into voting for him.
September 27, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever happened to calling someone a communist when you wanted them tarred and feathered?
September 27, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You need to turn off Rush as he is clearly affecting your capacity for rational thought.
Obama has never voted to ban guns, but agrees we should have sensible regulations. Obama supports the second amendment as most Americans do - a right with limits.
He gives tax cuts to the vast majority of Americans and closes loopholes for those among us who have the most - many of whom would gladly pay more under a progressive taxation scheme. The ones that won't are not worthy of their good fortune and should get the fuck out.
Face it. We are a socialist country. Always have been. The entire system was designed to benefit the many by the audacity and daring of the few. Create stability by which greatness thrived. We all had our part to play, from the greatest to the lowest, and each was essential.
Every since Ben Franklin started the first volunteer fire department and lending library in Philadelphia.
I suggest a library card if you can't afford books.
September 27, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tax cuts for the vast majority? Hell, the vast majority don't even pay taxes. Well, at least 40% pay nothing, and the bottom 50% pay only 4% of the total. As far as loopholes, you don't even know what you are talking about, name a 'loophole'. With AMT and the way deductions are eliminated as income increases, there are no loopholes. As to you, if you would gladly pay more, feel free to do so. Just add in the extra amount you want to pay. They will take it. It is also BS to attribute success to 'good fortune', as if work played no part. You better hope they don't get out, fool. They are the ones paying all the bills.
September 27, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I was making million dollars a year, my good fortune would require me to pay more under a progressive tax scheme.
You are an ideologue with zero grasp of the actual facts behind how taxes work in this country.
You really need to broaden your sources of information, because you are giving us moderate, more common sense based republicans a bad name.
September 28, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no grasp eh? Well, let me tell you my little friend, I don't have to theorize about making a million dollars in a year. I've made considerably more than that, and paid nearly 40% in taxes. There are very few actual loopholes available at that point. You make the stupid assumption that a person's income is static, that one great year will be followed by another, and therefore they can afford to give up a huge percentage of it. That is seldom true.
September 28, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Until 1961, the top tax rate would have had you paying 91%. That is progressive taxation.
The fact that you are a greedy, low information voter who look sat short-term return over long-term sustainability shows that money can't overcome ignorance.
You are apparently not grateful for the country that gave you so much opportunity.
September 28, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No moron, that is insane taxation. That system also had millions of loopholes and exemptions. If you think people would work and pay 91% of their earnings you are even stupider than I thought. Even Chairman Mao lowered the Chinese tax rate from 33% to 25% to spur production. Obviously Mao is not left enough for an idiot like you, or your comrade Obama.
September 28, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Progressive taxation contributed to the longest period of sustained growth in our history. Regressive taxation has led to huge debt and a shrinking middle class, the engine of any robust economy. Those are the facts, your ignorance of them not withstanding.
September 28, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eh. If anyone's delusional it's the NRA.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/709/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/711/
But what do I know? I'm just sourcing my information from an independent and non-partsian truth-seeking organization and website.
September 27, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Independent, non-partisan? HA!!!! Face it, Obama supported the DC ban the SC just ruled unconstitutional. So much for his law expertise!! He also supports the same law in Chicago. He said in a questionaire from a gun control group he supports banning handguns. He has NEVER supported a gun rights law of any kind. Just more lies from Obama.
September 27, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, so you are saying that all decisions by the Supreme Court are automatically and unquestionably correct?
September 28, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
There are so many levels of stupidity in the comment you are responding to that it would take an essay to unpack them.
September 28, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Banning hand guns isn't the same thing as banning all guns. Again, your inability to see more than one side of an issue leaves you sputtering extreme right talking points with no context and no sense. You give republicans a bad name.
September 28, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Baning handguns is enough for me to never support him. It's enough to qualify him as a gun control zealot, and an enemy of people's 2nd amendment rights. It clearly shows he has no grasp of the constitution. Let him go out and proclaim his desire to ban handguns. Ha! No way he would admit to that. He is a liar and a fraud.
September 28, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you think banning handguns doesn't violate the 2nd amendment, because it wouldn't ban all guns? Can we regulate all our constitutional rights this way? So a law banning Presbyterianism would be ok because it doesn't ban all religions? How about black males are slaves, just not females? How about Fox news is ok but CNN and the others are banned?
Read the 2nd amendment. It says 'The Right to Keep and Bear Arms Shall Not be Infringed'. Now explain your stupid position in that light.
September 28, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would really like to know: is it your belief that all Supreme Court decisions are unquestionably correct?
September 28, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, some like Dredd Scott or Roe/Wade are clearly faulty. However, the 2nd amendment is very clear, and the meaning is obvious from the writings of those that drafted it. It is scary that 4 morons voted against it on the current court, but not a surprise since liberals think the constitution means only what they want it to mean, not what it actually does mean.
September 28, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not the same thing at all, but you have the neocon debating tactics down to a T. All of our Constitutional
Rights have limits. I didn't agree with the way DC regulated guns and the Supreme Court voted the right way I thought. DC should have allowed shotguns for home security and not tried to put such ridiculous limits. That is why we have a process for figuring things out.
But, to be such a strict constructionist goes against all methods of rational thought and analysis of how we order society. Based on a strict reading of the Constitution, the Supreme Court isn't authorized to determine what is or isn't Constitutional. That power was always assumed to rest in the hands of the people.
You, my friend, are a low information voter who has allowed an extreme ideology to corrupt your thought processes.
September 28, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has had a confused message for weeks. He hasn't had a turnover in his advisory staff -- so why should this week be any different?
Now we know why he was overwhelmed by Bush in 2000.
September 27, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the increased taxes for the Top 5%'ers issue... I want Obama to equate higher taxes with patriotism at this defining junction in our history... I hope he says to them directly: "The country needs your help in this difficult economic time. My plan asks for your help. And with your help, we can pull through this together to make America stronger and safer."
Bush never asked for shared sacrifice after 9/12, and I think people are aching to give back to their country.
September 27, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops... Meant to attach to JasonEverettMiller's post above (September 27, 2008 8:42 PM) where he brings up taxes.
September 27, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kennedy-esque, it is. I wish he'd do something like that, too. I think a lot of Americans would listen to him. Though to be honest, I think it might work better in, say, his inaugural address.
September 27, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've already scheduled the day off from work so I can be there. I hope you can drive down from Washington State Chrono... :)
September 28, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another thinly veiled attempt to slander Obama. No links and no references... What I think it fascinating is these types attacks only push more activism on the Dem side. Not a lot of ranting and raving just action.
Speaking of action... here's an example here in Florida
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-voter2508sep25,0,6238727.story
Just a small sample of a nationwide movement...
Nice job Nathan...
(rec'd)
September 27, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry... meant for the "dog" up top.
September 27, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice. More fraud from ACORN, Obama's community organizer outfit. What did you want a link to? Obama's support for gun control ? Or his support for more taxes? Do you deny he supports higher corporate taxes and higher income taxes? He is open about that, he just lies about who will pay them. As to gun control, he lies a lot about that now he is running for national office. Check out the NRA website if you want his history on this issue.
September 27, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will you leave the country after this landslide victory? We don't really need you here.
September 27, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why should I leave? First, your idiot is not going to win. Second, if you are able to commit enough voter fraud to steal the election, after 2 years the country will be so enraged at his incompetence that all dems will be voted out of office, just like after Clinton. Then we'll impeach his ass, just like Clinton, only this time we'll throw him out like the trash he is. Then at least 12 more years of republican rule. This time we'll invade Iran.
September 27, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
your name is ironic, no?
September 28, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
You really have no brain to speak of. The alternate universe that your medication is unable to banish is fascinating if totally twisted.
September 28, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes I just enjoy seeing liberal's heads explode. You suffer from the typical liberal malady, that of thinking that yourself superior to those of a different point of view. Trust me, you are not, in any way.
September 28, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
You wouldn't know a conservative if they whacked you upside the head with their riding crop. There hasn't been a real conservative in charge of the Republican party since Eisenhower. It is has been one ideologue after the other since Nixon got his ass kicked by JFK.
September 28, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://uplink.space.com/attachments/270850-DoNotFeedTroll.jpg
September 28, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Clever Bulldog sounds rather Karl "The Math" Roavian don't ya think?
September 28, 2008 3:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Rasmussen tracker internals show Obama's certain voters rising (all time high of 42), McCain's certain turning into leaners. That debate has continued the acceleration toward Obama, no doubt.
Next up, Sarah Palin!
September 28, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good post, Nathan D. I thought the same reading the Fallows piece, that he'd hit upon the really central point. While watching the debate, I had this feeling I could barely put into words, of McCain just seeming old, dated and old and worn.
Sometimes I almost pitied him he seemed so, well, irrelevant and adrift. Earmarks? All that huffing and puffing over earmarks? He absolutely cannot see the big picture on anything.
But when all the anger and resentment he obviously feels because of the postion he's in would bubble up (I'm John McCain, this can't happen to ME), then I'd think, nope, this sorry assed old curmedgeon deserves everything he's getting.
Of course I realize evolutionary throwbacks like Clever Bulldog above can't see it this way. But hopefully Bulldog's as old as McCain and soon to be dead. The country will be better off after that war mongering crowd's gone.
September 28, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. McCain seemed to abandon his "reformer" theme and went back to the "experience" theme, which he had made a mockery of by picking Mayor, er, Gov. Palin.
This constant change of messaging is a worrying sign for the GOP. Obviously trying to steal "change" didn't work. Now back to plan A, which wasn't working either.
McCain is running out of time. Friday was more than anything a missed opportunity for McCain. Early voting is already starting. The longer Obama maintains and builds his lead, the closer we seal the deal.
September 28, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting is pivotal. The fact that McCain isn't doing well NOW, when early voting has started, means more and more people will be casting their votes for Obama before November 4th. Obama could technically build a huge lead in some states, especially crucial ones like Ohio. If I remember correctly, Ohio allows for same day registration and voting, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Obama camp. was bringing people right to the polling station after getting registered.
September 28, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, um.. everyone? Let me repeat...
http://www.salagir.com/gfx/troll-web.jpg
September 28, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
What crisis can McCain come up with to justify calling off the VP debate this week? If Palin is even half as incoherent as she was on Couric, they might as well withdraw from the race by the weekend.
September 28, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
right!! calling names makes your argument compelling? NOT!! It's obvious that you are a Republican troll. People...just ignore this low-life troll. Don't even bother to respond to his amateur rants, for they are so immature.
Look fool bulldog: you simply don't get it: We all are loving (and laughing) the way you Republicans are trying to defend Palin and criminal McCain (who gave up US secrets to the Cong) and his druggie wife who stole drugs from her own non-profit. They spew complete poppycock, produce the lamest of excuses, and really are a pitiful breed!! What is wrong with having someone who is intelligent running the show?
We've all seen what having a dumb idiot in control can produce: crazy endless wars, loss of constitutionally-guaranteed rights, destruction of the economy, torture, and hatred for America around the world. If Republicans were our enemies they couldn't have done a better job at destroying the country. What I have learned from all this is that Republicans aren't patriotic Americans at all, but instead, traitors!!
Let's go back to 2000, where you really showed your anti-American colors. By any reasonable measure Gore got the most votes in the country and in Florida, yet the Supreme Court stepped in and gave the presidency to a low-life scum-sucking bottom dweller. It was a punk Third World move and was no different than a military coup because the will of the people was ignored. You and all the other Republicans are traitors for supporting the overthrow of a duly elected government. Traitors!! And most of us will never accept you as real Americans ever again.
September 28, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Screw you, commie scumbag. Gore lost, period. Then he tried to steal the election, and lost again. I live in Florida, and am proud to have helped defeat that moron. You are obviously clueless to the fact that the Florida SC Chief Justice (a democrat) ruled that the Gore counting scheme would be overturned by the SC and detailed why. He was right. I look forward to hearing your whining when Obama goes down in flames.
September 28, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
ChronoSpark - now that McCain is back on the experience meme it must be getting close to Lipstick Removal Time...
I predicted weeks ago she would get dropped and it will happen before the debate. They cannot let her go thru with it or Obama will be double digits in the polls and several more states will be blue taking the count over 270.
With the tracking polls tanking this week based on last week's suspension tactics (no John that was NOT a straegy) and the EV count at a pretty solid 267 for Obama they can't make any more mistakes....
Time for Saracuda to have to return to her family duties and forego higher office this time. Just watch...Lieberman will be riding to the rescue and try and wrestle some Independents and Dems to McCain - or that will be the next tactic they try.
September 28, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin's favorable ratings are currently at -10.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/28/75413/3350/471/612782
But.. she won't get dropped from the ticket. At this point? McCain can't. If he drops her, he's going to tank in the polls, because she's the only one keeping him at all afloat with the conservatives. He drops her, he loses the last and only base he's winning in: hard-right conservatives.
It's just too late. Maybe if he had chosen her halfway through the summer he could have dropped her before the convention. But at this point? He's screwed. He's screwed if he keeps her, but he's screwed even more so if he lets her go.
September 28, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Palin will do OK by Republican standards, which are very very low. I mean, most Republicans still like Bush and favor warmonger McCain! No matter how she performs they will still be in favor of her. Remember that most Republicans (as opposed to conservatives or democrats) have no standards or education. As evidence I offer "TheCleverBulldog".
September 28, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have standards. We refuse to support inexperienced left wing nuts, especially when they have a history of hanging out with terrorists and have America hating mentors.
September 28, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think "Clever"bullsh#t might really be Palin herself.Notice the same nonsensical stringing together of neCon bullet points, the same tired old cliches, the same uncontrolled hubris despite a demonstrable lack of intellect. The same contempt for any views or ideas that haven't sprung from the "great" minds of the Cato Institute/ Newt/Rushbo/St.Ronnie etc.......What's the difference between a cleverbulldog and a hockeymom? A hockeymom can keep score. See you in November, neanderthal. ( No offense intended to intelligent,compassionate neanderthals everywhere )
September 28, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Notice the direct correlation between the vile spewing and the poll numbers.
September 28, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
tCB: No matter how much you claim that you have standards that doesn't make it so. The only standards you have are poor standards!
Cindy McCain is a drug addict - John McCain gave the Viet Cong our secrets - Sarah Palin cavorts with witch doctors and those who speak in tongues.
Didn't McCain abandon his wife after she waited 5 years for him to return from Vietnam and was disfigured in an accident? Wasn't he screwing Cindy while still living with, and married to, his wife?
Wasn't McCain near the bottom of his class at the Naval Academy?
McCain is stupid, amoral and unethical. He's nothing more than a bumbling old warmonger who couldn't ever live up to the standards of his father and grandfather.
September 28, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
it's closing time at the bar and your facing a pitbull with lipstick...
what do you do?
if america votes for mccain they'll be pulling the coyote trap ploy...
gnawing off their own arm to avoid waking up last night's mistake...
friends don't let friends vote VPILF
September 28, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi TCB
I worked for the IRS for quite a while, and I think your statement that as a millionaire you paid 40% in taxes is a flat-out lie. Maybe 40 years that might have happened but I doubt that too. I've personally handled enough multi-million and multi-billion taxe returns to know not a one of them paid anywhere 40%. Add in insignificant (to that income level) SS taxes and top rate state taxes and no one still came near 40%. Since most people at that income level have at least some investment income, they pay lower capital gains tax on. Unless you're a foreign investor who got really poor tax advice, you didn't pay 40%. There is a quirk in the IRS codes that can shove the tax for some very foolish foreign real estate investors way over 40%. But the smart ones know how to play that too.
September 30, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment