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What exactly are meant by "experience" and "judgment"?
Pakistan's military has ordered its forces to open fire if U.S. troops launch another air or ground raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said Tuesday. The orders, which come in response to a highly unusual Sept. 3 ground attack by U.S. commandos, are certain to heighten tensions between Washington and a key ally against terrorism. Although the ground attack was rare, there have been repeated reports of U.S. drone aircraft striking militant targets, most recently on Sept. 12.(...) army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas told The Associated Press that after U.S. helicopters ferried troops into a militant stronghold in the South Waziristan tribal region, the military told field commanders to prevent any similar raids. "The orders are clear," Abbas said in an interview. "In case it happens again in this form, that there is a very significant detection, which is very definite, no ambiguity, across the border, on ground or in the air: open fire."(...) In a rare public statement last week, Kayani said Pakistan's sovereignty would be defended "at all cost." Abbas said Pakistani officials had to consider public opinion, which is skeptical of American goals in the region and harbors sympathy for rebels fighting in the name of Islam. "Please look at the public reaction to this kind of adventure or incursion," Abbas said. "The army is also an extension of the public and you can only satisfy the public when you match your words with your actions." - Associated Press
"Pakistan is an extremely dangerous and unstable country. We need to tread carefully. We need to get the Pakistanis to see this as their war. And that's going to require some major new initiatives on the American side. Commando raids and Predator strikes are not a long term solution to this problem." - Bruce O. Riedel, Brookings Institution
"Without adequate political leadership, eradicating sympathy for the Taliban may prove more difficult than eradicating their hideouts in frontier Pakistan. But as long as NATO and the United States continue unilateral strikes in Pakistan that kill civilians, the real battle - for hearts and minds - will be lost." - Mustafa Qadri, Asia Times
The United States has just invaded Cambodia. The name of Cambodia this time is Pakistan, but otherwise it’s the same story as in Indochina in 1970. An American army, deeply frustrated by its inability to defeat an anti-American insurgent movement despite years of struggle, decides that the key to victory lies in a neighboring country.(...)The eventual outcome of the American intervention in Cambodia in 1970 was Communist overthrow of the American-sponsored military government in that country, followed by genocide. The future consequences in (nuclear-armed) Pakistan await. There is every reason to think they may include civil protest and disorder in the country, political crisis, a major rise in the strength of Pakistan’s own Islamic fundamentalist movement, and conceivably, a small war between the United States and the Pakistan Army, which is the central institution in the country, has a mind of its own, and is not a negligible military force. - William Pfaff
The Democratic candidate had raised hackles in Pakistan by suggesting he would authorize U.S military incursion into Pakistan if there was information about Osama bin Laden's presence there and Islamabad did not act on the information. Administration officials and foreign policy mavens, including Obama's current running mate Joesph Biden and John McCain, had criticized such a public utterance, preferring the policy to be unsaid. In the past week, the Bush administration has begun doing precisely what Obama recommended -- covert attacks inside Pakistan aimed at eliminating terrorists. But according to Pakistan, they are resulting only in civilian deaths. - The Times of India (emphasis mine)
What exactly are meant by the words "experience" and "judgment"?
These words have been thrown around a lot during this campaign
The Obama camp has insisted that Obama's "judgment" trumps McCain's "experience". This gives the impression that in some way these two qualities are in conflict. In the case of the quotes above, it is obvious that the border of Pakistan is the most dangerous place in the world. American soldiers are for the first time in history attacking targets in the territory of a country armed with nuclear weapons. This in itself calls into question the judgment of anyone ordering or even suggesting such an attack.
However, at times, very dangerous things have to be undertaken. There are two basic risks when this occurs: that first is that things go very wrong and the other is that people talk about it. In the case, of attacking in Pakistan it is also very negative that people talk about a cross border attack even if it were "successful". Successful meaning, in this case, the public humiliation of the military establishment of an unstable, nuclear armed country whose cooperation is essential.
If it is questionable that such attacks are useful, what is beyond any question is that publicly advocating these actions and introducing them into the echo chamber of a presidential campaign is the height of irresponsibility and poor judgment.
It is not difficult to surmise that Bush, a wickedly foolish man, one whose judgment is poor beyond doubt, has taken these extremely dangerous actions in response to Obama's prodding.
So even before becoming president, Barack Obama has made a critical foreign policy error, one which may have unbelievably terrible knock on effects...
Even if he isn't finally elected, he still may have left an indelible mark on American foreign policy, one that may mean the death of many thousands of human beings and the destabilization of south Asia and beyond.
The only reason that Obama could possibly give to excuse such irresponsibility and lack of judgment is... inexperience.
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Comments (12)
This tendency to publicly discuss ALL elements of policy is one I have seen played-out on at least one other controversial question: All the blather of recent years about "torture".
Surely, every reasonably sophisticated student of history KNOWS that in war (of whatever sort), terrible and atrocious things happen. In fact, there are many patriotic Americans living among us today (some in their 80's and beyond) who know FIRST HAND that these things happen. War (of whatever sort) is a mean business, and always has been. Terrible things are routinely undertaken, without anyone involved thinking they need a "time-out" to consult a lawyer first.
What is new with this sophomoric Bush crowd and its equally childish supporters, is this obsessive tendency to TALK about it constantly: This need for not-very-tough guys to outwardly SEEM tough, and this even more devious and pathetic need to make us all ACCOMPLICES to it.
It seems the height of restrained wisdom to acknowledge that there are things better left unsaid. We elect Presidents in part to make (in silence) the hard decisions we don't want to have to make ourselves, and to solve ethical and moral problems we don't want to know about.
September 17, 2008 8:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Impossible for you to find anything good to say about Obama, and he must now take blame for Bush's actions.
Obama's one comment on the subject is not synomymous with Nixon's invasion of Cambodia, or Bush's actions in Pakistan. Those were and are attempts to defeat an indigenous political faction. Correct me if wrong, but I remember Obama talking only about hunting Osama. Bush's military is fighting the Taliban, and Nixon's was fighting the NVA.
Obama's plans to be more active in Afghanistan are also not synonymous with cross-border violations.
As to judgement, how secure does it make you feel to have McCain arguing for action in Georgia? Or always supporting deregulation of financials?
And as to experience, how much command or executive experience does McCain have? Darn little of the former, and zero of the latter, unless we include running a campaign, which allows us to include Obama's better management.
September 17, 2008 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
After 8 years of Bush/Rove, I think we can all agree that running a successful political campaign has nothing to do with governing successfully. That's the kind desperate argument that gets amens from the choir but fails to convince anyone else.
Has Obama ever explicitly rejected the Bush doctrine? I'm not aware that either he or McCain have. I think that would be far more significant than anything he said or didn't say about crossing the Pakistani border.
I assume that Obama rejects the idea of preemption before a credible threat exists, but has he actually said that?
September 17, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good question. But let's be careful about terms---pre-empting as usually taken to mean acting first in the case of expected imminent attack, and is considered justified if credible.
Bush tried to expand to "prevention" meaning preventing a threat from developing in the first place, an inherently vague and indefensible proposition. It was only promulgated to justify invading Iraq, who was never presented as preparing to attack soon, but only in some indefinite future. It was "better now than later".
I hunted through some Obama foreign-policy and defense papers and speeches and see no direct repudiation of Bush Doctrine. This may be because it is so incoherent as to be better ignored than honored by discussion.
September 17, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought so. Unlike Palin, I do know what the Bush doctrine is. I'm still looking for something from Obama that explicitly rejects it, but haven't found it yet. He did use the phrase "actionable intelligence" I think when talking about striking targets in Pakistan. The real problem is Iran. That would be a case where we might expect Obama to rule out a "preventative" strike.
September 17, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wait David. Your premise is that Bush is now taking orders from Obama? Right? That's what you're saying here?
September 17, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Bush hopes that McCain will win. Since the attack Pakistan idea resonated with many voters, Bush probably thought it would be good idea to co-opt it. it's kind of like the film "Dumb and Dumber".
September 17, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
We know all too well this is subjective. Both have become rationalized as it applies in the realm of politics. They are functionally meaningless for the purpose of measuring the fitness of a person to perform a job. From the lowest political echelon to the highest, getting the job is related to who you know and who you blow. From Podunk to Washington this is how it works. It's an absurdly sanctioned contest between sales / marketing vs. facts.
September 17, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
David, maybe we should think a little more about the nature of MAD. I saw Kissinger about the time he first began pushing MAD, and, from the beginning, there was nothing in the idea that ruled out a nuclear power attacking a non-nuclear power. As a matter of fact, that match-up made it more likely that nuclear weapons would be used. Where the use of nuclear weapons was not possible was in a one on one confrontation between two nuclear powers.
Even neglecting the imbalance in power between the US nuclear arsenal and delivery systems and the Pakistanis', it's disingenuous to bring up Pakistan's nuclear weapons. There may be many reasons not to cross the Pakistani border, but their bombs are not among them.
I suspect your argument is more persuasive in Europe.
If we take into account the actual superiority of the US nuclear capability to Pakistan's, it's much more likely we'd bomb them than that they would bomb us. IMHO.
September 17, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only historical use of nuclear weapons was precisely against a non-nuclear state. But also note that India and Pakistan have had less overt military actions since they both became nuke states.
The risk David raises is not trivial, if destabilizing Pakistan is a result of cross-border attacks. But I think it's actually doing the opposite, stiffening their spine against too eay a cooperation with us.
Great book on nuke policy is Fred Kaplan's "Wizards of Armageddon".
September 17, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
If an atom bomb exists, it can be used. If the country that possesses it is unstable, with a high percentage of religious fanatics (I'm talking about Pakistan, not the USA) in or near the government, then then the risk is heightened. I don't think that crossing their border and killing their civilians will "stiffen their spine" or stiffen their anything else, in any way that would benefit US interests.
September 17, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agree completely that cross-border raids being done are asking for trouble regarding Pakistan's internal politics.
We have no way to assess chances of anyone using a nuclear weapon, with no track record to consider other than our own use. Can you imagine any scenario in which Pakistan delivers a weapon to somewhere? They're not sitting on launch pads with fuses installed. The worry is a collapse of Pakistani government, right? So then what? ISI tries to spirit one away to give to Osama? And Pakistani soldiers guarding the warheads just say OK?
Nuclear weapons to date require an entire country to make, maintain, and deliver. Their sole use required a world war, a country weary of sacrifice, and an overwhelming political pressure to defeat a non-nuclear state utterly. But certainly there is good reason to work toward keeping nukes difficult and state-level.
Since we really only worry about non-state, criminal use, the best tactic, beyond existing techniques, is to decrease the political support for Al Qaeda. Treating them as criminals and not sending the army after them, just to beat up on them, is my vote. That just inflates their importance, and increases the glory for recruits.
September 17, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
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