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"The Expectations Game", ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

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Here's something I totally don't understand. It has somehow now become
"common sense" that Palin could win the VP debate, not by being better
than Biden, but by being just a bit better than she's expected to be,
which is very very bad. You can hear this argument seriously made in
the MSM all the time: "The expectations are very low for her". This
means: Everybody KNOWS that she's clueless and they're making this into an argument FOR HER?!?! 
And this message is conveyed in all seriousness by the MSM!?! I'm just
wondering, HAVE PEOPLE IN THE MEDIA LOST THEIR F*#KING MIND?!?!?!

If anyone really believes that this is a valid argument, then let me illustrate the absurdity through some examples:

*
If I'm taking a test at school and I haven't studied and I know
absolutely nothing, should the teacher give me an A if I manage to
score better than 0%? And should those who studied for months get a D
if they score anything less than 100%?

* If I have an interview
for the job of, say, a reporter, and I appear to be illiterate, am I
immediately hired and promoted to the chief editor if I manage to read
a few words?

* If the cops stop me while I'm driving obviously
totally drunk, should they let me go if I manage to walk five steps
before collapsing?

* If I swim versus Michael Phelps, do I win the race if I manage at least not to drown?



* If a monkey would debate against Palin, would he win because his expectations would be even lower?

Just
in case this doesn't ring a bell, let me explain about expectations.
Expectations can be lowered when comparing subjects of different
categories, yes, but expectations can never change the final outcome, much less the ranking order!

For
example, if a lightweight and a heavyweight boxer were to have a match,
expectations for the lightweight one would be lower, and if he managed
to land a few good blows, we could say that he fought better than
expected, even if he lost in the end. But that would not change the
fact who in the end knocked out whom.

In this case, the two are
competing for the highest offices in the country, so they're both the
highest category, so even the expectations for both should be the
highest possible. But if people insist in giving Palin some slack due
to obvious cluelessness, that should not change the final verdict of
who would be the better (vice-)president. Remember, the comparison is between Palin and Biden, NOT Palin and her miserable expectations.


Comments (58)

JJ

Well done. Thanks. So agree.

Rec'd.

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But -- but -- don't you feel SORRY for her? Don't you PITY her? Doesn't she get some PITY points?

And -- McSame was a POW. Having done jail-time should count for something.

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POW POW POW!

Now stay down, you liberal elitist!

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Exactly. The standard for Palin should be the same as for Biden, that of, is this person prepared to be the president? Not whether they are prepared to be the VP.

There is no unique preparation to be the VP because the VP has almost no duties under the Constitution aside from becoming the president in an emergency. The qualifications/ability required of the Presidential candidates is exactly the same for the VP candidates.

Well said. Intellectually, Palin cannot win the debate. However for her a win, (in terms of independent electorate being swayed to vote for Mc/P), may consist of not flailing ad infinitum, ala the Couric interview(s). I'm personally betting she will flail hard. Regardless, I think the Mc/P brand is toast.

Frankly, I would expect the monkey to do better than Palin.

I've seen documentaries showing chimps recognizing colors and shapes. I also seen them using primitive 'tools' to hunt and fish. I seen them swimming to fish and gather food.

I'm not saying they've read EVERY newspaper and magazine but other than Palin who has?!

Actually, just this year I saw a smirking chimp give a State of The Union address!

You're neglecting an aspect of this that I think is very important. Winning a debate is not like winning a boxing fight. In boxing, you can knock your opponent out or take it to the final bell and then, based on the blows you landed, etc., you get a score and the highest score wins. A win in a debate is not a matter of concrete score, it's all in the perception of those watching. If those watching tune in and see Palin seeming much smarter than they expected and Biden is just Biden, Palin wins the perception game with is the conclusion of the expectations game. I wish people were able to make more objective observations regarding performance, but unfortunately history tells us that simply isn't the case. Ah well.

So yes, rather than rant about a result of the flaws in how we perceive, we need to go out and remind a few undecided voters that, while running for governor of Alaska, Palin was a tough debater and that dems are secretly quivering a little at what she might be capable of on Thursday.

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True, people's perception is a funny thing and can be manipulated to no end. People fall for all kinds of tricks, this is normal and it is entirely expected and in fact it's how campaigns work. But that's not what I'm complaining about (although I don't like it, I really can't imagine it being any other way).

What I don't understand is reporters and political analysts (i.e. the smart people) falling for the same stupid tricks that actually target the naive and uninformed people. It's as if an astronaut believed that the Earth is flat if a campaign manager told him so.

These people are supposed to be the experts. They're supposed to enlighten the rest of us. But as it turns out, an average person will much sooner recognize campaign BS than a lot of reporters and political analysts will. WTF?! Are they so incompetent, or is there something in the MSM that limits these people to just repeating "talking points of the day"?

reporters and political analysts (i.e. the smart people)

Good one, but it's a little early for April Fools.

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There's potential upside for Biden here, as well. I actually don't think most people have had as much exposure to Biden as they have had to Palin at this point. Don't be surprised if Biden exceeds expectations, if only because many probably don't really know what to expect from Biden.

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Good point. I can hear people say, "Who's that guy debating Palin? He's actually pretty good!"

That is actually an excellent point.

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I'm surprised the media and the McCain campaign itself are downplaying Palin's expectations. Didn't she get a degree in broadcast journalism? Wasn't she a television news correspondent (sports)? Given that education and career experience she SHOULD perform very well. Unfortunately substance, at which she will muddle through with memorized talking points, means less than the performance. I expect a lot of nasty zingers from her. It may not go as well (meaning as bad) as we all hope.

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False. Was it a matter of substance, or of style, that McLame didn't look at Obama even once during their debate?

Regardless which you choose to call it, everyone on the palnet, and even the alins on Mars, saw and commented on that rudeness by McLame.

Even if you call it a matter of "style," it's impact gives it weighty substance.

Think about seeing a mediocre movie that you expect to be horrible versus seeing a mediocre movie that you expect to fantastic. You're more likely to review the former much better than the latter, which is not to say that you're blind to its flaws. More importantly, your opinion of the former will have gone up, while your opinion of the latter will have gone down.

For a concrete political example, look at Bush's first debate against Gore. People came out of it with a higher opinion of Bush than they'd held prior to the debate. Heck, I came out of it with a higher opinion of Bush. I thought that he would get his ass handed to him. After the debate, I felt that he was not quite the idiot that I had thought him to be (which is not to say that I didn't think he was an idiot).

That is the risk in the debate. Many people think Palin's an idiot already, especially the press. If she does better than they expect, they may come to the conclusion that she's not the idiot that they had thought her to be.

Nevertheless it's depressing that someone can "win" a debate because for 90 minutes they seem less stupid or clueless than usual.

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Then again, can Palin really avoid:

* Evasive bs non-answers so transparent they provoke disbelief ("Which newspapers? All of them. Any of them placed before me ..."). Face it, she's a pathological liar and not a very good one, either.

* Huge gaffe/mistake on policy questions. This is especially likely given that she can't just say what she thinks, but has to match up with the McCain campaign's official bullshit. Ex. Following Bin Laden to the gates of hell = good. Crossing into Pakistan or saying you will = bad. No normal person would be able to keep up with the confused mixed messages of McCain & Co.

The result will likely be a lot of repetition of talking points, the word "reform", "maverick", etc. You know, the infamous Palin word soup.

Will y'all quit this please.

Quite dragging me back to 2000 and '04.

The whole damn world has changed since then and by god the intervening factor here is that in 2006 WE WON.

Stop this!

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Before you dismiss the idea of such a win, read what someone who has debated her has to say.

he is the authority?

how come she is such a mess so far?

if answering questions were her strong suit we would have seen it.

she will crash and burn.

this is not a debate about fish and wildlife.

It does seem the expectations are being set for Biden to come off as too wonkish or bullying, and as such, they are set rather low for him too. Biden is capable of being passionate, gutsy, and personable, and certainly much more mavericky than McPalin, and consistent with the Obama campaign style, he will be addressing and appealing to the voters rather than to the media and instead of focusing on Palin.

Meanwhile, Palin will have been trained to engage in ideological and personal attacks against Biden, and with their incompetent delivery, the contrast will be abysmal.

I welcome this focus on the expectations for Gov. Palin for it allows Biden to walk in to the debate and outperform the underanalyzed expectations the media have set for him.

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"he will be addressing and appealing to the voters rather than to the media and instead of focusing on Palin."

An important point: Beyond the media's obsession with style, Biden can actually get the message out that they will fight for ordinary Americans.

Especially given the biblical financial situation, most regular people will be looking for answers and competence, not MSM spin games.

Who knows, maybe substance will matter for once.

Hmmm.... I agree totally!!!

That's why I posted the same idea at 9:45am (45 minutes before this post was born....)... and got no responses... Strange.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/one-bar-standard.php

NEVERMIND!!!!

Sorry for my error... This thread was started YESTERDAY and I missed it!!!

1,000 apologies!!! My bad! No sour grapes here!!

Jumping Jack, I think you're SPOT ON with your observation.

I wish there were an "EDIT" feature on this board so I could go back and fix my mistake(s). Boy, am I embarrassed.

I really wouldn't sweat it, Ickyma. ;-)

Robert

I feel your pain, Ickyma. Seems like something I would do.

Co-sign. Recommend and thank you for this post.

She has done worse every time she's opened her mouth - and people are worried?

Why?

She isn't acting. It's not a game. She's stupid.

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Well, she does bad when she's forced to answer a question she didn't expect and has to go off-script. Her tactic seems to be word soup with political keywords to bs her way out of having to be specific.

Her answer to "name a newspaper you read" was "all of them, any of them that happen to be in front of me" is a classic example. This is a born liar and evader. Comically so.

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The moderator will have to call her on it.

And yes, I wish that expectations had not been set so low BEFORE the debate. Would've been better for the Couric interviews to air next week.

The NYTimes says that all Palin has to do is avoid obvious flubs to win the debate.

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I feel exactly the same way. I keep hearing and reading that if Palin just manages to not fall off the stage or some other ridiculous thing, then she wins the debate. I have been talking about this to anyone that would listen. Since when does simply not falling flat on one's face make them a winner? I find this logic completely -- well, illogical. If we can't hold our candidates to a much higher standard than we would any Joe Blow on the planet, then we deserve what we get. We got George Bush with just this same kind of logic. It's hard to express just how ludicrous the entire concept is. And hearing it expressed by the members of the media -- expressed with a straight face, no less -- is nothing short of mind boggling.

Has the McCain campaign released the Sara Palin victory ad yet?

LOL!

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Don't insult the monkey

She has this tendency to miander (how do you spell that?). Bla bla bla bla bla. That radio interview...she was all over the place. One answer to one question, please. Please do not go off topic. And, she'll go off topic. And sound like an idiot.

Plus, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her go after Biden in a very aggressive manner. And, I believe that will make her look pretty bad, over the course of 90 minutes.

Biden needs to communicate that he is aproaching her from the standpoint of an equal adversary, and that the audience should evaluate them the same way.

Hopefully Palin will attack, and if I were Biden, I would let her do it twice before I responded. That way it would be clear that he wasn't on some kind of hair trigger; that he was going after her for a good reason.

If she doesn't, the question becomes how does Biden draw her out without looking like he's on the attack. Palin will be coached to be evasive and vague. That's really her only hope of getting through the debate without a major meltdown (or two). I think that the way for Biden to draw her out is to either say something to the effect of he doesn't understand what she just said, or that she didn't really answer the question. However, he should start off with the first before he brings up the latter.

The thing is is that I have seen excerpts of this woman debating during her run for the Alaska governorship, and, while no dynamo, she certainly doesn't come off as anything even remotely close to the dingbat we see in the Couric interviews.

What are the McCainites up to here? Is the strategy to have her appear to be a total moron to lull the Obama campaign into a false sense of security ere her debate with Biden?

(If you haven't seen said excerpts head over to the Huffington Post or Crooks and Liars.)


Robert

Well big difference between then and now is that in the Alaska debates she was debating local/state issues she was familiar with. This time she is debating national/international issues that she has showed herself to be clueless about. The only question is whether the American people will come away of a positive image of her after 90 minutes of her just repeating talking points and attacking Obama and Biden? I am betting no...

Look, she knows her state, apparently, well enough to be credible talking about Alaska - somewhat. By the same token she's talking Alaska being the state that she is in charge of and Canada and Russia are a part of the state she is in charge of-

I mean, the woman has some facts at hand - but her understanding of those facts is about 1/2 inch deep. You cannot persuade me that someone who has memorized a bunch of data she doesn't have any basis for understanding or building on is going to win a debate with someone who can think because he knows and knows deeply and thoroughly.


Sheeeeeeeeeeeeit - give me the info and data on Alaska, 4 weeks and I'll take Sarah Palin to pieces.

I would never say that about Hillary Clinton, or even Fluffy Hutchison - Fluffy ain't bright, but she's not Palin dumb. She speaks correct English and Sarah Palin does not.

I didn't finish that thought - I wouldn't debate Fluffy because she's been in the Senate forever. I know my limits.

But you give me the material, 4 weeks, Sarah would be a quivering mass of tears and bullshit by the it was over.

I'm telling you - you've seen the interviews. She maybe capable of throwing some BS, but the woman is stupid. Garden variety dumb.

She has a BA she got in the mail in Sports Journalism.

I too have seen and have posted excerpts of her debates in the gubernatorial race. She was fairly coherent answering values questions as well as Alaska specific issues such as subsistence hunting and infrastructure. My read is she was unprepared for the national scene and is clearly not well versed in national issues. Given time (such as the usual surrogate to VP process) she might have done much better.

As for the expectations game, I'd agree with the poster above who mentioned that perception is key. If Palin gives non-sensical and circular answers, she'll be perceived as unqualified, regardless of the expectations, and it will hurt the McCain team. If she gives reasonable answers and holds her own, some people may re-evaluate.

I'm sure Biden has been well coached that he needs to be on message attacking McCain, and largely sidestep or not directly take on Palin, as Palin is likely to commit so many unforced errors a direct Biden response may not be necessary. He should, however, avoid the same kind of negative body language like Charlie Gibson showed, looking down his nose at notes, or McCain, who didn't seem to look at Obama at all.

If the Palin performance at the debate is a debacle, I'd be quite happy to eat any of these words...

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I kinda hope it all hits her right there in the middle of the debate. The enormity of the job she is running for, her inept qualifications and being the butt of every joke in the media..... Kind of like an epiphany. Hopefully, her soul will scream to her "I am not ready!"

Either Deer in headlights glazed over look or Running off the stage crying.

No offense.

One thing that occurs to me is that neither Palin or Biden can help their ticket all that much but they both can hurt them.

What I mean is that most people don't vote a ticket becuse of the VP candidate. But a really bad VP candidate could cause people to have second doubts. By that standard Palin is more likely to do damage, even though Biden has his own history with gaffes. I think given the events of the last six weeks or so, undecided voters are giving a lot of scrutiny to Palin, because they're looking for a way to gage McCain's judgement.

In other words, a bad Palin performance will cement the perception that most people now have that McCain simply doesn't know what he's doing. A bad performance by Biden would not have nearly the same effect. In my opinion any pundit who downplays the importance of Palin's debate perfomance is due to be rudely surprised when McCain loses another two points or so if she doesn't hit a home run.

I agree.

Excellent points.

Robert

I think Libertine's post is most illuminating here. (Although I doubt not that TenaX could take a four, Hell, TWO week correspondence course and wipe Palin's tail in debate. ;-) Or even without said course.)

Really, I have never believed this woman to be stupid. Perhaps not likely to earn a degree in Molecular Physics anytime soon, but not stupid. But...

I think with Palin the reason she comes off as such a dingbat (and effectively is) is that she is as provincial a person as one could meet. I mean, she had no passport until she was 40-something? How often did she ever get out of Alaska over the course of her life? (Seee: visit the lower 48.) By the time I was 20 I'd been abroad 5 times. Yes, I had advantages others don't (i.e. well-to-do parents), but there are others lacking said advantages whom, if they can't find a way to travel abroad, have the strong desire to do so. What am I getting at? Simple: it all boils down to intellectual curiosity. Few people in this world are genuinely stupid, but a fair number lack even a shred of intellectual curiosity, and the end result is the same. Travel abroad-or at least a strong desire to do so--is one of the surest indications that one possesses (or lacks) intellectual curiosity. Need another example? Witness George W. Bush.

End of sermon. ;-)

Robert

Aw thank you.

But I disagree with you about her.

I think she is stupid - how do measure that if you want to say that intellectual curiosity is meaningless in assessing whether or not someone is stupid? I honestly do not get that.

Bush is stupid. Yes he is, too. He has native cunning - but what y'all forget over and over and over - he had the Bush name and the Bush money and the Bush family reputation behind him and a degree from Yale and another from Harvard.

She got a BA in Sports Journalism that she finished by mail.

Please don't insult my intelligence. Please.

Aw TenaX, we hardly know each other and already you think I am insulting your intelligence? (Note that here I honestly am not being sarcastic.)

My contention is this: that few people are genuinely stupid--I'm talking about those who are not diagnosed as having Down's Syndrome or who are not mentally retarded. Yet a disturbing number almost effectively are, for they lack any curiosity about the world. They are happy with simple explanations such as a literal interpretation of the Bible. That the Death Penalty cures crime. That just by letting greedy bastards have their own way free of regulation will solve all economic problems. That stupid, simple, kneee-jerk solutions work. That if they did we wouldn't have had them already in place long ago. That...

Wait a minute. I think you just might be on to something here. Let me get back to you...

Robert

Ok, maybe you and I are talking about the same thing - because it is getting to be a question of semantics here - what you mean vs. what I mean when we use the word "stupid."

;)

No, it's not a difference of semantics here Ms. Tena, as you have compelled me to consider that there are a legion of genuine, dangerously 'high-functioning' dumb shits in this world, in high positions.

OK, I knew that. but I thought that they were merely evil, not dumb. Now I am starting to see that they are evil AND dumb

I suddenly remember that William Bennet has a doctorate in philosophy, and is a Harvard graduate. That W. did indeed graduate frome Yale and Harvard.

God help us all. I graduated from the University of Kansas; who do you think I'd pick for my Trivial Pursuit team? You, or either one of them? If losing the game meant the loss of my testicles, I'd still take you as my teammate. (Indeeed, I'd do so with even more determination.)

OK, time for Bobby here to get back on his meds, but you get the idea. ;-)

Robert

PS What is disturbing is that 99.5% of the above is not meant sarcastically.

Yeah Robert, I agree, the provincial aspect of her knowledge made her a formidable force in Alaskan politics. She has a charisma about her when she is in her element, knows how to use a camera and when talking from a scripted speech (like her convention speech) or talking about issues she is familiar with, she comes off great. But when taken out of her element, and forced off of a script or has to discuss a broader array of issues, it is kryptonite to this so-called Alaskan 'Superman' (hey she called herself Joe 6-Pack so she isn't Superwoman I guess). So I would guess her only recourse at the debate is to spin Alaskan yarns about how being who she is prepared her for the job (not that it has) and to attack. In fact I expect she has been trained, when asked a question about a specific issue that she doesn't feel comfortable with, not to respond to it but attack Obama and Biden's position on it with a myriad of anti-liberal talking points. I think all the 'Pitbull with Lipstick' will have in her arsenal is her growling and bark. Talking issues in depth is a sure loser for her...

Last time I checked, I never saw a coach thanking the selfless sacrifice of his/her players for that "moral victory" they are celebrating in the locker room after losing the game.

That is the only outcome possible for her. Let the right wing-nut spinners say how good she did and that she won. It's immaterial to the voter's perceptions at this point. Obama supporters shouldn't say much beyond how much fun Joe looked like he was having.

In the post game wrap-up, Joe should pay her some nice compliment and then say how much he enjoyed being able to contribute and how much fun he is having being a part of a great team.

You absolutely nailed it.

Nicely done!

Calm down, put the gun away Jack.

Most people know it's some kind of a tactic to make her debate performance relative to her other flop performances. Nothing she does from now on can erase the flops. She is now the Queen of YouTube where you can find all her worst public utterances.

I can't even begin to imagine how she is suddenly going to morph into an intelligent well-informed person, a debate-hustler.

No doubt she will be stuffed with facts from debate camp but she likely won't put the facts in the right places. She'll just "meander in a fruitless search for coherence."

She'll just "meander in a fruitless search for coherence."

O my god, that's perfect. And furthermore, "meander" is one of my favorite words.


I wonder what are the betting odds on her contradicting McCain policy in the debate.

Palin is going to try to hammer square pegs into round holes all night providing more Saturday Night Live fodder.

All Biden needs to do is be concise to win... her only hope is that he famously runs at the mouth and she doesn't have to elaborate on any answers. She does not do follow up questions very well.

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The questions will differ for each candidate.
To Joe "how would you deal with Iran's quest
for WMD?
To Scarah "when you shoot a moose, do you go for
the kill shot, or do you wing-em, so you can track
them until they "bleed out"?

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