Yesterday, breaking my vows of chastity and humility, I shamelessly solicited recommendations from those fed up with posts that sift through data to make the implausible claim that somehow we’re right where we want to be at this stage of the game. These posts come in many flavors, but in my (humble) view elevate wishful thinking above the sober reality that we have ample reason to fear. I received a number of responses (as usual thoughtful and informed) calling my attention to another pernicious side of the same coin. These are the posts prematurely lamenting the state of the race in near apocalyptic terms. In the interest of fairness and balance, I thought I’d devote equal time to them.

You know the type. The theme usually goes something like this: It was “Obama’s race to lose, which is about the only thing he’s doing a good job of.” This is followed by some example of how Obama is blowing it and a prescription for the only way he can salvage his campaign before it’s too late – if it isn’t already.

Many of our beloved dissidents are former Hillary supporters (I am one myself, so I know whereof I speak) still carrying their disappointment and hanging on to their belief that Clinton would have made a better candidate. Obama’s perceived stumbles validate this view and an undercurrent of “I told you so” permeates their criticism. At the least there is often an implicit comparison in which Obama comes out on the short end.

In yesterday’s Slate, Christoper Beam reviews (to comic effect) the conflicting advice urged on Obama by the backseat drivers.  To summarize for those who can’t bear to tear themselves away and check out the link: Tie McCain to Bush!/Don’t Just Tie McCain to Bush!; Get Mad!/Don’t Get Mad!; Take the High Road!/Lie Like McCain!; Go After Palin!/Ignore Palin!; Use The Clintons!/Ignore the Clintons!; Fewer Big Rallies!/More Big Rallies!; Screw the 50 State Strategy!/Screw the Swing States!; Get Specific!/… But Not Too Specific. If you ask me, my advice to Obama would be continue being yourself. Gore and Kerry both tried to be someone else. Let’s not go there again. On the other hand, you need to talk more about the economy in ways people will understand, punch up your answers, etc. . How easy to fall into that trap.

The constant second guessing seems a uniquely Democratic phenomenon. Rarely do we see the Republicans savaging their own with the same gusto. Sure, James Dobson and Rush Limbaugh had their problems with McCain, but now that they’re back in the fold, united against the common enemy (which includes the vast majority of Americans), we hear scarcely a peep from disaffected Republicans (More insidiously, David Brooks affects a phony stance of disagreement while surreptitiously carrying Republican talking points.)  Maybe it's the effect of losing so many elections. Or maybe that’s why we lose elections. Maybe that’s just our nature.

To state the obvious, the race right now is a tossup. It never really was “Obama’s to lose.” In fact, he’s always faced a hard road as an outsider with an unconventional biography, a young, relatively unproven, African American candidate.  It really does require a leap of faith.  That he's convinced so many thus far is an amazing story.  And let's not forget he's running against the only Republican seen as independent of Bush whose long love affair with the media is only now beginning to wane. Even as the press bemoans the dishonesty of the McCain campaign, they can’t help but point out what an honorable person he is. That’s a tough image to crack.   

So, you ask, if I decry in equal measure misplaced confidence and premature fatalism, what’s a poor boy to do? Well, you could turn your fury against me for leading you on this fruitless endeavor. You could move on to other, worthier topics like trout fishing in Alaska or the financial crisis. You could continue reading both types of posts as, truth be told, there are many interesting and worthy points made on both sides. Or you could get out and do your best to make sure Obama wins this Fall and we all go home happy.

Finally, I only reiterated my whoring for recs in the interest of symmetry. It is a practice of which I strongly disapprove. In fact, I don’t even care if anyone recommends this one.