I think we have legitimate cause for alarm. In general in a choice between simple and complex, simple nearly always wins, because very few people are truly intellectual about their choices. They just make up reasons after the fact for doing what they wanted to or felt like, especially when what they felt like doing was so patently wrong. So I, too, am dismayed by the direction the polling has gone and the ready seduction of the electorate by "just like me" Palin, a person who is so far from being like me that just about the only thing we have in common is our reproductive capacity. So, if our candidate doesn't practice and learn very punchy, succinct but honest answers to just about anything that is thrown at him from here on out, I do think he will be elected, because people want to feel safe and they don't feel safe enough yet with the new guy. It's his job to up his favorability ratings and tear down McCain's. There's plenty there to work with, but it requires the kind of guts politics that isn't Obama's favorite way to do business. So as much as the hand-wringers on the blogosphere hate to admit it, this is no longer Obama's to lose... it's his to win, but only if he shows himself to be a fighter and paints McCain as a has-been, which he is, although McCain himself doesn't know it.

Also, I wonder if people realize that McCain's decision to pick Palin may just be the most embarrassing case of puppy love we've ever seen in a candidate for high office. He visibly glows in her presence and when talking about her. Wouldn't be the first time that an old man was swept off his feet by a beautiful younger woman, to the point that he is totally obvious to her lack of knowledge and floodtide of negative stories about her governance as a mayor and governor. If you notice, he is more adamant all the time about what a great pick she was, both because she excites him personally and because the crowds that show up to his speeches now are so much larger and more engergetic. Poor old fool, when will he realize that it's no longer about him.

Isn't it Aristotle who said a virtue is the mean between two vices? So the virtue here would be something between total unwavering assurance and keening breast rending (or even worse, the cynical smug nay saying that's so prevalent on this board).

Neither of these extremes work for me because at both ends, you have a basic failure to address the reality that elections, in the final analysis, are a crap shoot. Obama could lose and McCain could lose. It depends on how the wind is blowing on a given day, and it changes.

Which doesn't mean to say there aren't things that can be done to try and effect positive changes for our side. There are. But please also spare me the armchair warriors who always know how the Democrats are fucking up and how they do it every time and how if they would only do this or that...and if Obama only would ATTACK...

I heard it all with Kerry four years ago, endless complaining, and then he went and gave a good speech at the convention this year, recycling lines he used back then and recycling them just about verbatim, and everybody started asking where was that Kerry? You know, he was there, but everyone was too busy clucking about his performance to actually listen to what he was saying and give him the support he needed. So Democrats deserve equal credit for sinking Kerry in 2006. Democrats eviscerated him daily.

They do eat their young.

I hope you're right and I will be happy to buy the beers. Not that I'm convinced Obama's going to lose, though, just that I don't see many good things happening now. If I were a betting man... but thankfully, I'm not.

As for the panhandling, I am deeply ashamed and regretted it the moment I hit "send." More distressing, it seems to actually work.

If you guys would put down the keyboard and get out there and volunteer for the campaign, all your needless poll-watching would slip away.

Yes, please worry. Don't ease up even in the slightest. "Stay the course" you Energizer bunnies, you. Go ahead and worry if that motivates you... it sure can't hurt.

Wow, reading this is really depressing. I don't think Obama has lost yet, I would expect McCain support to diminish after yesterday's (9/15) economic meltdown. I think Obama/Biden can win if they carry PA, MI, CO and NM. VA would be great, but it would be an unexpected gift.

I just don't see how people can really support McCain/Palin. They're running on fiction.

And posts like this do what to "turn things around"?

I'm sick of both types of posts. The constant back and forth is a waste of time.

Democrats panick so damn much we look so inherently soft. Look McCain was down for several months, he gets a slight lead and all hell breaks lose. You must keep in mind that polls ALWAYS get closer as the election gets closer however many factors are NEVER accounted for and although you can be a bit disheartened by them, they are not the end all be all of victory. After the 4th, when you are commenting on another election of any sort remember to say "I wise man once told me..." in reference to me, ok?

You tell 'em Dustin Diamond in a Guerrilla suit!!

The truth is, we do need to acknowledge that we aren't as far out front as we'd like to be and then try to figure out what we need to do to get the numbers outside of that margin of error.

I've been looking at the electoral map sites that also give an option for looking at the final maps of elections back 40 years. Sadly, with the exception of the Clinton/Gore ticket in 2 elections, the real blowouts were Republicans. Still, we did have Bill winning two elections with close to 400 electoral votes and even Jimmy Carter won one term.

So, what was behind the successes, Democratic and Republican? If you look at all of those election years and those running, I think it comes down to the comfort factor. People are just not going to vote for someone they can't identify, or feel safe, with in some basic way. If they can really identify with that person, they will continue to vote for him or her even in light of revelations of incompetence-think Ronald Reagan-or deceitfulness-think GW-or MSM's constant attacks-think Bill.

What did those three have in common? All three were able to tap into that comfort zone of a lot of voters. Before I get jumped on by most of you, I do know that Bush has lost his place in the comfort zone of a huge majority of our citizen. I also know he actually stole the first election. Still, isn't his perceived image what gave him the edge to capture enough votes that a steal was possible and also what kept us from having enough votes to boot him out in the second election?

The next question is what can Obama take from that and use in this election? First, he has to admit that there are a large number of people who aren't in their comfort zone with him. He already has the progressives and the dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. McCain has the dyed-in-the-wool Republicans and, with the help of Palin, has tied up his conservative base. What's left are the more conservative Democrats, the moderate Republicans who are disgusted by this administration and the Independents. Obama needs to make all, or at least a decent number, of them feel that he isn't outside of their comfort zone. For that he needs to take a page from the Big Dog, our only two time winner in the last 40 years.

Obama needs more of those lines he gave today about having a bridge to sell you if you bought into McCain's statements. He needs to stop coming back at McCain with that frown that's caught on so many still shots. Instead, he needs to use that bridge kind of statement backed up by his wonderful smile. Bill didn't win by giving facts out with lectures. He almost always used a little humorous jab-a "we share this joke" kind of thing-and then gave his solutions to the problems.

In my opinion, Obama made a big mistake in not agreeing to the town hall forum for facing McCain. While the MSM thinks McCain can best Obama in a standard debate setting, I think they may end up in a draw. In the town hall forum, Obama could do what Bill did. Remember how Bill left his place and walked out towards the audience? Damn, he did know how to use body language to bring people into his circle. He spoke to the people eyeball to eyeball and drew them in.

Obama, while absolutely phenomenal as an inspiring orator, needs to bring that oration down to a one-on-one. Being in the right didn't do it for us in the last two elections and neither did trying to use cold hard facts to counteract the sleeze. An alternative that is being discussed on the progressive blogs is to use the same type of tactic as the Republicans to try to win. Not only is that beneath us, it isn't necessary. Instead, lets use the tried and true winning formula. Let's show those who are waffling in the middle that we are not so different than they are. Obama, show them you are one of them.

And, in case you are wondering, I was a staunch Clinton supporter, a female and over 50 who wants Obama to clean McCain's clock.

To victory in November!

As this point I favor neither the Pollyanna Posts or the Doom and Gloom Posts; I prefer reading about the AL East pennant race. Because I somehow manage to be simultaneously (1) supremely confident Obama's gonna roll over these clowns on Nov 4, and (2) scared to death.

At least the stakes of a Red Sox loss are emotionally bounded, and would not carry with them national -- global -- calamity.