I want to put out some thoughts about the VP selection that the public isn't likely to get from the Washington press corps but that I think call out for attention.

In short, I just can't believe that Tim Pawlenty wasn't McCain's first and only choice for VP. All the signs were there. Ask anyone who ever saw them together up close - and they were together a lot over the past few years. Hopefully I can help convince below. Even the current campaign spin that McCain really wanted Lieberman, just replace Lieberman with Pawlenty and it makes sense. Lieberman would never have been viable and surely McCain knew that.

The Rove faction wanted the tool Mitt Romney while McCain, no fan of Rove, had long settled on Pawlenty - who himself is no personal or political admirer of the Bushies, not at all. On this, see this story (<i>NYT</i> reg req) from 2004, Pawlenty's comments in bottom three paragraphs.

That article is just one example of many of Pawlenty wanting to keep Bush & Co at arm's length.

Back to 2008. By Rove getting Romney on the ticket, it would not only show McCain who's still the boss, but would also bring Rove and his boys the pleasure of seeing a smart and popular up-and-comer - Pawlenty - essentially gelded in front of everyone as he (Pawlenty) gives his home town convention speech as the passed over candidate. Which, alas, remains the case.

In a way, this VP selection was yet another battle for control of the party. (No wonder no one wants to be at the convention.) Depending on whether it was Romney or Pawlenty, one side or the other was going to win decisively.  

Therefore, and this is kind of disturbing, McCain used Palin as a "drop the bomb so no one wins" sort of pick.

It is certainly possible that, at the last minute, McCain chucked Pawlenty over the side in favor of a roll of the dice. Also, there's probably something behind Bill Kristol's predictions about Palin back in June. But all summer McCain was suggesting he'd made up his mind and even ready to leak his selection. Recall those comments about Pawlenty in New Hampshire (McCain's political back yard). Here's that link.

The first time McCain ever met Palin was at a National Governors Association meeting in February, probably because McCain was visiting Pawlenty - the NGA chair.

The second time McCain ever spoke with Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, was last week.

I just can't believe that McCain had seriously considered her at all until the very end.

And anyone who buys the "kindred spirit" spin is a fool.

For McCain and Pawlenty's close personal relationship, see also these stories: This from April 2006, first paragraph... This analysis from Nov 2006... This Dec 2006 story, esp. paragraph 8... and this report during McCain's polling nadir, June 2007, second paragraph suggesting that McCain was spending his free time with Pawlenty in St. Paul (or maybe he just has some houses here, who knows).