« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
On The Cusp of a Landslide. Keep Fighting!
I believe this election is on the cusp of becoming a landslide for Obama, and I believe that's why the McCain campaign panicked and chose Palin at the last minute without vetting her.
We keep seeing diaries with the latest Gallup, Rasmussen, CBS, etc polling showing a tightening or expanding race. But one thing I have not seen anyone do yet is put this in historical perspective.
Once you do that, you see just how strong Obama is in this election
cycle, and why the republicans are so dispirited and downtrodden.
This, more than any other election in my 31 years, is ours to lose. We MUST keep fighting, not only to win, but to utterly decimate the republican party nationwide.
The one thing I take away from all of these polls is that an additional 2 million democrats were registered between 2006 and January of this year. The republicans lost almost half a million from their rolls.
Add on top of that the millions of new registrations of blacks, hispanics, and young people during the protracted democratic primaries, as well as the further reduction of republicans during the same time, and you have a lot of new voters in the pool that aren't typically captured in this polling.
Now as far as polling goes, I like Gallup and Rasmussen for national numbers because they do rolling averages and poll over a thousand people per night. I look at Real Clear Politics, Five Thirty Eight, Electoral Vote, and Pollster to look at the state-by-state numbers, since those are far more important than national numbers anyway.
With Obama ahead nationally by anywhere from 2-7pts depending on the poll, and ahead by a substantial margin in the electoral vote count on a state by state basis, it would take a gaffe of catastrophic proportions, or some other enormous game changer, to see McCain win. Taking into consideration all of those newly registered voters and the sheer ground game the Obama campaign has built up over the past couple of years, and I think there's a hidden cushion there that isn't necessarily shown in the polling.
I'm not saying it's a done deal and that people can sit back and relax, but the numbers are just not in McCain's favor by any stretch of the imagination.
Pollster, Five Thirty Eight, and Electoral Vote are all pointing to a 300+ EV victory for Obama going by the state polling. That is thus far translating to roughly a 3-5% popular vote win.
At this stage of the election season, it's actually comparable to what happened in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was the insurgent candidate and Carter was the incumbent. John McCain isn't the incumbent President, but he is the incumbent party. At this point Reagan was actually tracking weaker #s than Obama. Once the debates happened, however, it turned from a relatively close election into a landslide.
That's why I think the debates are going to be so crucial. Obama needs to show the american people that he can not only stand toe to toe with McCain in the debates, but that he is in fact in charge of all of the knowledge McCain and the republicans accuse him of having no knowledge of.
Given responses such as this, I have complete and utter faith that this will happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L31go6-LAs0
As we get closer and closer to election day, I believe that this will turn away from a 300+ EV victory with a 3-5% popular vote victory to something closer to 6-10% and possibly even 320-350+ EV.
The precedent for this kind of election (right track/wrong track, sour economy, sour mood of the country) does exist in history. The only precedent that I believe could keep this from being a real laugher is, unfortunately, the color of Obama's skin.
But in the end, I don't think that will be anywhere near enough to cause Obama to lose.
Now that said, let's look at some other historical information. WAPO article found, courtesy of dansac's recced diary, shows that the Obama campaign registered 49,000 new voters in Virginia, in August, alone.
Almost 260,000 new voters have registered there courtesy of the Obama campaign GOTV ground game since the primaries began. 142,000 during the primaries and another 114,000 since June. If they hold pace that will be another 90-110k registrations in September and October. They're saying that could add another 1-2% to his popular vote totals in VA and be enough, along with the general indicators that are pointing toward movement in that state, to put the state in Obama's column.
When you look at the fact that Bush won VA by 9pts in 2004, that's an enormous turnaround for Obama to even be ahead right now by 2-3pts in VA.
Here are some others. #s courtesy of Pollster, Electoral Vote, and Five Thirty Eight.
North Dakota: Bush won by 27pts. Obama tied to ahead by 3.
South Dakota: Bush won by 22pts. Obama's within 4-6.
Indiana: Bush won by 21pts. Obama's within 2-4.
Montana: Bush won by 20pts. Obama's tied to ahead by 3.
Georgia: Bush won by 17pts. Obama's within 6-7pts.
North Carolina: Bush won by 12pts. Obama's within 3.
Virginia: Bush won by 9pts. Obama's ahead by 1-2 or tied.
The story continues in every other republican stronghold.
Additionally, look at the election simulations from Five Thirty Eight:
What do you see? The highest proportion of simulations ends with McCain receiving roughly 260 electoral votes. The highest proportion of simulations ends with Obama receiving 310-330 votes.
But beyond that, you notice that the standard deviation from the magic 270 EV count EXCLUSIVELY favors Obama. You see no blue below 270 and no red above 270.
As I said at the beginning, I believe this election is on the cusp of becoming a landslide for Obama, and I believe that's why the McCain campaign panicked and chose Palin at the last minute without vetting her.
Again folks, in short this is our election to lose.
So please join with me in phone banking if you can. Join with your fellow Obama supporters in canvassing if you can. Donate to the Obama campaign if you can.
Comments (33)
There is a correction on the reading of the EV graph from FiveThirtyEight.com:
-----------------------
What do you see? The majority of simulations end with Obama receiving 270+ electoral votes. The highest proportion of simulations ends with Obama receiving 310-330 votes.
But beyond that, you notice that the standard deviation from the magic 270 EV count strongly favors Obama.
In other words, if you plotted the number of simulations done to achieve a certain EV count, they would end up, by and large, above 300 EVs.
September 6, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cusp of a landslide?
Harharharhar!!!
Rasmussen is showing the race as dead even at 42-42.
The real picture is more like Obamabots at the bottom of a mountain watching the "landslide" roll down on their pointy little heads.
September 7, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah...
The real picture is more like a chaos of four blathering idiots and nobody has a fucking clue how it plays out.
September 7, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your comment is proof positive you didn't read my post.
I could give two craps about the popular vote. Reagan, for example, beat Carter by 6-8pts in the popular vote, but he won by 450 EVs.
Landslide elections are not always indicative of Popular vote. All you have to do is get more than the other guy in every state, even if by 1 vote.
So you could have a 50 vote lead in the popular vote overall and win all 50 states.
Understand?
September 7, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen also projects Obama with a very narrow lead, between 10 and 17 electoral votes. This is a one-state flip from disaster.
Understand?
Harharharhar!!!
Now the Obamabots have "progressed" to do-it-yourself polling because their sociopathic Messiah Barack Obama looks more like a loser every day.
The electoral college projection was on the same page at Rasmussen that I already linked in my previous post, but the Obamabot Yalin was too stupid and conceited to bother to read it!
Harharharhar!!!
Obamabots!
They can't even follow a link unless you shove it up their ugly little noses!
September 7, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You had me at Har
September 7, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been watching these polls with interest and have been curious about how they could be so close. Blacks will go for Obama at more than 90%, and will certainly turn out in record numbers. Under 35 will go for Obama by 65% to 70%. (granted these numbers only reflect my digested memory of polls I've seen). Obama leads among Hispanics by 20 points and by 10% to 15% among women in general. In fact the only groups McSame leads in is white men and seniors. In todays America that is no longer a majority.
Also, if the primaries are any indication, Obama performs better on election day than he polls. I did a little research. I compared the polls closest to election day to the actual results and for the 29 states I had easy access to, Obama performed 5.5% better on election day than he polled. Feel free to speculate as to whether this effect will be larger or smaller in the general, keeping in mind that democratic turnout was nearly double that of Republicans during the primaries.
Just a side note on what I also learned during this exercise. Zogby is crap!
There is no doubt that Caribou Barbie has excited the base, but if you are still consolidating your base in September, that is not a good sign. Pork Barrel Palin is an anti-choice, anti-science, anti-environment book-banner. Everything that people hate about the modern Republican party. She can't hide forever. Rational people will conclude that her nomination was a rash insult to the American people.
September 7, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cross-posted at My DD and Daily Kos
September 6, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we have to stay vigilant in registering new voters and making sure that young voters understand the importance of their vote.
Most importantly we should ask 'every' voter to verify their registration in time to make any corrections so that they don't show up at the polls and find that they were never added or corrections were never made. There were problems with this during the last election.
There is a lot of work to do.
I expect that the republicans may do all that they can to supress voters etc to try to stay in power so it is going to take a full out effort. I am all for being confident but only with concerted effort to make sure we do win.
September 6, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Only by busting our butts can this be thrust into reality. But mark my words, it will if we do what we have to do.
September 6, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I think we have to stay vigilant in registering new voters and making sure that young voters understand the importance of their vote."
The bigger the landslide, the better, and the less likely the Republicans will survive 2nd Party Status, the Independents will soon outnumber them if this turns into a rout.
Palin was proof they aren't even trying to get any new supporters,they are only trying to hold onto their old ones...
But we need to keep after em'... a 50 State Landslide is much better than just a win, it would relegate the republicans to third party obscutiry, which is a fitting punishement for what they let their no-bid, book-ocoking, neocon CEO's do to our nation over the past 8 years.
September 7, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd. Great post and great work.
Things to think about:
*Polls won't take into account all the new voters. Their likely voter models are based on past voting in some cases.
*Cell phones. It's true that many polls are based on landlines, which lean towards older folks.
*Voter turnout, GOTV, etc. will be stronger than the media thinks
*Youth, black vote could be unprecedented high turnout, which means their modeling wouldn't be able to forecast it.
If it is even or close on Nov 4th, Obama will win. Of course, I want it not to be close at all, and a big landslide crushing the GOP is what they deserve. So we have our work cut out for us, GOTV, registering, phonebanking, etc. as well as vetting McBush & his spokeswoman, and keeping the MSM honest.
Only two months left, we need to be more determined than ever. It's not hard for me, I'm so angry at this criminal government and the media complicity, and I channel my anger into fighting to defeat them.
September 6, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't like these arguments about flawed polls. While plausible, they smack of wishful thinking. The same arguments were made during the primary, and often proved false. On the flip slide, predictions of a Bradley effect also proved false.
Polls are flawed of course, but at least in the primaries, we didn't see systematic skewing against Obama. He had his North Carolinas, sure, but Clinton also had her New Hampshires.
September 7, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting that you post this, as I was thinking of making a very similar post, so I really have to thank you for doing this.
I completely agree with you, on practically every point. One thing I would like to point out is that, for the most part, September is the last month to register voters. A lot of states, especially crucial ones like VA, end their voter registration for the GE a month before the election. On October 4th, to be more precise. I can imagine that because of this, Obama will be stepping up his effort to register new voters in such states. In October I think we'll see a huge increase in resources for advertising, encouraging registered voters to actually vote, a push for early registration in a number of states, especially ones like Ohio (for more information, see here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ohio-early-voting-update.html).
One thing that I think needs to be emphasized is that Obama has been pushing voter registration the entire summer while McCain threw away millions on advertising. While McCain was wasting his summer and his fundraising funds on tightening the polls, Obama was looking ahead to the fall. Some people don't give Obama enough credit for looking toward the future. I know I sure do. His foresight was, to say the least, brilliant.
September 6, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent post, Yalin. I canvassed for Obama/Biden for the first time today and it was a good day. However, we will have to maintain contact with voters right up to the end. A disturbing number of them will believe any false email, half-truth, or bald-faced lie that comes along. Many get their information exclusively from television. This realization is what lit the fire and got me busy volunteering.
The media holds huge sway and has the potential to shape the outcome of this election. In Florida, a judge ruled several years ago that broadcast news outlets have no legal obligation to report the truth. We can't take anything for granted.
September 6, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Once the debates happened, however, it turned from a relatively close election into a landslide."
I think we have a worry in the debates. Obama can't speak in 5 second soundbites. He speaks in paragraphs. Now, that he's able to form large, complex and nuanced thoughts is one of the many things I like about him. But it doesn't sell the people. Reagan crushed Carter because he came off as folksy, witty and engaging.
In comparison, Barak can drone on and he's rarely (in my experience of the democratic debates) funny. He comes off as handsome, confident, smart and kind but there's a coolness about him that I think hurts him in the GE debates.
Frankly, the presidential debates are what worry me most. McCain on a good night vs. Barak on a bad night could be a very troubling situation. He's got a hard job: he needs to come across as serious and capable, but if he comes across as wooden I think it's going to be a problem.
September 7, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
...You've got to be kidding me. Did you ever watch McCain at the debates? If you had, you wouldn't be worried. Obama drones on? McCain has trouble forming sentences.
McCain frequently LOST the debates in the primary. He'll probably do well at the town hall style debate, but in the traditional ones? He's laughable bad.
September 7, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can be sure that both Biden and Obama are schooling themselves furiously on the fine art of quipping their opponents to pieces, in ways that are least inclined to look mean and most likely to make Palin and McCain's heads explode on live TV.
Maybe I'm being optimist, but this is SO within the realm of happening -- followed by the 4.2-point victory I see coming (which means it will 7 points, with a couple stolen off the edges by Diebold and voter suppression).
September 7, 2008 3:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just a lurker here, so my thoughts don't mean much, I know. It's clear that Obama has been playing a brilliant stealth ground game for months. It can pay off big time--and I can see a landslide that will leave MSM gasping--but only if people actually DO vote. Getting people to register over the next month is extremely important. But getting them to the polls on November 4 is the crucial, and more difficult, task. Repugs also realize this is a critical election, and will be turning out their well-disciplined minions to vote as well. Repugs, being arrogant as they are, dismiss new voter registration on the belief that youth and minorities won't turn out. However, numbers are now on Dem side if new voters will follow through.
September 7, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Repugs also realize this is a critical election, and will be turning out their well-disciplined minions to vote as well."
They also realize this is a critical election??
How so? Because they have been in power for 12 years and did such a great job? I don't think so.
The far right is energized and will show up to vote. That's about it.
Meanwhile, the new voters have registered specifically to vote for Obama. Which they certainly will do in droves.
There's no way McBush is going to win this election.
September 7, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent post! I agree both with your positive assessment and the need to remain vigilant.
I'm currently predicting a 364 - 174 win for Obama.
I particularly enjoy using the EV tracker on the USA Today site. It has tabs of all election results going back to 1960, and if you're a registered user you can save your own estimate.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm
September 7, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Before we get too confident, we should keep in mind that this election is also more of a crapshoot than most. First, Obama's ground game could drive huge turnout among young and black voters and totally overwhelm the polling assumptions about 'likely voters'. That's on the good side. The downside is that Obama is black. Don't underestimate that. The Bradley effect was HUGE when it came to Bradley and big when it came to Wilder. How big will it be with Obama? Who the hell knows. But I'd bet that quite a few white folks, particularly older ones, will get into the booth and not be able to punch the ballot for Obama. I don't know if it will be determinative, but we'd be idiots to assume it won't be.
Keep on working. Take NOTHING for granted. I've voted "D" in every election since 1980 and have been on the winning side exactly twice. There's absolutely no reason to assume we're going to win this thing. We should. We shoulda won the last two also.
September 7, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for putting this all together in once place. Save me a lot of time. Recommended!
September 7, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, I'd click your link but I already gave $500 in the last two weeks and I'm skating the edge of maxing out - my husband sent $1000 without telling me first.
Thank you for putting this together. It's been a freak-out ever since CinderSarah showed up at the ball being escorted by the oldest Prince Charming on earth. As someone who went to law school at the end of the 70s, I'd love to know how it feels to be waltzed into a position of incredible power by an old guy just because he needed a boost.
Nobody lowered expectations for me or any other woman I know. Certainly no one lowered them for Sen. Clinton or for Sen. Obama, for that matter. Sarah Palin is an insult to women who actually worked to get where they are.
September 7, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's all good. If you and your husband can't donate anymore, send this along to your friends and family. And ask that they do the same.
Every little bit helps. :)
September 7, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are just hysterical! Palin is an insult to women who worked their way to where they are? WHAT!! She worked for it. Hillary married for it. Nothing she achieved came without the help of Bill, either him being AG, Gov, or Pres. Same with Pelosi and Feinstein, married to rich powerful men. Palin's husband is a fisherman, they are not rich. You are really from some other planet!
September 7, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lazy Palin apparently isn't fond of real work, she concocted a big, convoluted issue to get out of work as the chair oaf ALaska's OGCC, at least according to her co-workers.
But what would they know? From the LA Progressive;
"En route to the governor’s igloo, Palin managed to land what Anne Kilkenny says is the plumb political appointment in the state: Chair of Alaska’s Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (OGCC), a $122,400 per year patronage slot with no real authority to do anything other than hold meetings. She took the job despite having no background in energy issues and, as it turned out, not liking the work.
“She hated the job,” an OGCC staff member who is not authorized to speak with the news media told me. “She hated the hours and she hated what little work there was to do. But she couldn’t figure out a way to get out of the thing without offending Gov. Murkowski” and the state Republican Party regulars, some of whom were pissed off they didn’t get appointed.
But ever the opportunist, Palin quickly concocted a way. First, she waged a campaign with the local news media claiming that the position was overpaid and should be abolished – despite the fact that she lobbied Murkowski hard to get it. Then, mounting what she saw as a white horse, Palin raised a cloud of dust by resigning from the OGCC and riding away with an undeserved reputation as a “reformer.”
September 7, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
A boost for Obama as a result of increased voter registration does seem practically inevitable.
But on the cell phone issue, Gallup has apparently been compensating for that effect since January of this year.
This is from the January 14th entry of "Gallup Guru Blog" on USA Today:
And, as of Jan. 1, 2008, Gallup has made the decision to include cell phone interviewing as part of the sample used for its general population studies.
Here's the link.
Thoughts?
September 7, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, this post and the comments read nice, but what worries me is that if you look at the current standing of the state polls, nothing is guaranteed. If Obama wins just the states that he has currently more or less locked up, it all sums up to 264 EV, meaning that he still needs to get at least another 4+ EV somewhere, most likely in either Ohio, Virginia, Colorado or Nevada. These states are all extremely close and could go either way. It would be great if the ground game brought him a large number of votes, or if the current polls underestimate his support, but so far there's no proof of that. Add to that a possibility of some dirty trick, election fraud, some event that would scare people into voting "present" etc.
I too believe that the debates are going to be the deciding factor. Obama should have an edge there, because he's way smarter, and McCain's old brain should be no match for him without the help of Rove, Schmidt & co. But I'm still worried, because the final effect of the debates won't be determined directly by what the candidates will have said, but through the prism of media reporting, pundits' interpretations, soundbites taken out of context etc., which is all extremely difficult to guard against (if you want to, you have to think a lot before saying anything, which may make you come across as clueless or unsure).
Bottom line: victory will not be an easy task and nothing is decided until it's decided.
September 7, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bretheren,
I'll just believe it (i.e. Obama winning the presidency) when I see it.
Winston Churchill once said (dear God, I am starting to sound like George Will) that "The Americans always do the right thing. After exhausting all of the other alternatives." I am even less sanguine than that; I would amend it to: 'The Americans will always do the most moronic thing possible, if given even the most moronic reasoning to so.'
My Father is a highly-regarded professor of International Law, who has served on a score of Congressional and UN committees, and even he parrots Republican talking points. (E.g., 'Sarah Palin has more executive experience than Obama.')
I'm a dual-national. While I'm sure I'd feel a serious measure tug of guilt, if McCain wins, I might just cash in that second passport and move to Britain.
Robert
September 7, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to have you leave! Take another democrat with you, please! (Funny that you never considered the possibility that your highly educated Father might be RIGHT!)
September 7, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats, Independents and some realistic Republicans let us remember that we are on the right side of History! We have the truth, the ideas and the will to make the future what we want. We now have to work and work like we have never worked before and we have to be very dedicated until that last vote is counted. We have to get out and hit the streets everyday from now on and never loose site of what the goal is in this election. The goal is for a blow out, landslide and nothing short of that will do!!
Dedicate ourselves to emailing our friends and family and answering their questions regarding policy and issues that Obama/Biden represent and why we are supporting them and why they should to.
I will be in Florida for three weeks of October registering voters and getting voters out on Nov 4. Get the list of toss up states where we are polling +- 1-2% and get on the My.BO site to get coordination on where to go. Register voters and Get out the vote.
Look for States that allow absentee voting and target those people as well. Lets get as many elderly who can't make it to the polls on absentee ballots and vote early.
WORK WORK WORK...This is ours to lose!! Our ground game depends on all of us being COMMUNITY ORGANIZERS!!
September 7, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yalin, your enthusiasm is heartening. However, I'm not as confident as you are in those states where Obama is within 4-6 points of McCain, as the Republicans have "suppress the vote" teams on the ground in all of them. Check out the following article on the "caging" of votes in Ohio:
http://www.miller-mccune.com/article/662
September 7, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment