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No way, no how, no bailout

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I'm calling my congresswomen and telling them I do not support this bail out. I'm a registered Democrat, but I think this is the rare issue that truly crosses the party line. There are many reasons I oppose the bailout, and I'll hit them one-by-one.


1) It rewards the bad actors who got us into the mess in the first place.
First, the people who bought houses that they knew they could not afford. Second, the lenders who made these bad loans without caring about the likelihood that they could not be repaid. Third, the insurers who bribed the government to not call credit default swaps (CDS's or mortgage insurance insurance) insurance, thus relieving them of the obligation to keep cash on hand in case they had to pay the off the insurance policy.


2) The government will undoubtedly overpay for this debt.
The problem is two-fold right now: these loans are worth somewhere between $0.30 and $0.80 on the dollar, and no one wants to buy them at any price. So now the government will come in and rescue these irresponsible lenders. Guarantee you that the feds pay 50% more than anyone else would be willing to pay for this debt.



3) It doesn't solve the root problem.

Are they going to require oversight of CDS's? Will we start regulation & oversight of the shadow banking system? If not, this problem will just repeat itself in 5 or 10 or 20 years.



4) We're rushing into a solution

Good solutions aren't developed over a weekend or two weeks. Whatever band-aid bail out they come up with will be loaded with unintended consequences and will lead to hundreds of billions in extra spending beyond what anyone anticipates. You can take that to the bank.


5) Scare tactics are being used by the administration to coerce congress into giving the president massive new powers
I'm sorry, but didn't we just leave that party?



6) Once the government owes the debt, borrowers will be much less likely to pay if off.

Think about it-- all these problem borrowers are from the people who overpaid for their houses and borrowed more than they could ever afford. And the government has been going on for over a year about how we can't kick people out of "their" homes and onto the street. Now, all of a sudden these people are going to be stiffing the government & we'll own the houses. Any bets on whether we ever evict ANYBODY? This is a giant signal to the borrowers that they can STOP paying their mortgages immediately, because the government is coming to rescue them. The solution will probably be to write off the debt 100% and give the houses to the current occupants.

Cross-posted.


Comments (13)

I respect your position, and from a long-term perspective, I agree with some of what you'd noted in points 1, 2 and 6.

I disagree, however, and support the bailout for now, though there should certainly be some cable-strength strings attached. (See Greg S' recommended post today - http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/back-to-the-future-obamas-plan.php)

Here's why:

First, speed is necessary. In one day of trading, close to $90 billion was sold out of money market funds. This crisis is happening so fast, it might take market closure to restore confidence. It can't wait.

- The bailout solves a massive liquidity crisis that can collapse the entire financial system. Possibly world wide - that is why the Chinese Central Bank as well as many others are involved.

- It's not the investment banks themselves that matter here. It is their customers - and we need to keep that in mind.

- Their customers are large banks, corporations, mutual funds, pension funds, as well as other countries.

- These investment banks provide a market where their customers can trade their own assets, which are largely intact.

Let's say you are a medium bank in California, and twice as many depositors are taking money out than usual. What happens if you can't get your cash from your investment bank?

Let's say you are Kroger, and you can't borrow from the commercial paper market to fund part of next month's inventory purchases. Can you imagine shutting down for a month?

Let's say you are CALPERS, the countries largest public retirement fund. Your customers are anxious and want to change mutual funds from stocks to "safe" bonds. Can you imagine if your investment bank said they can't do it because there are no buyers?

That's the problem here. The Feds have to step in and restore the market. I just hope that the strings attached are very, very thick. Like the Golden Gate. Get us to the other side, then we can find the culprits.

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I hear what you're saying, but I think a lot of this fear mongering is starting on Wall St. by interested parties seeking a bail out.

If everyone wants to get their money out, it's obviously a problem. But I don't believe it. I think we're being lied to, as Wall St. is trying to pull the wool over our eyes one last time.

The reckoning day has arrived when these financial institutions have to realize that those debts are only worth $0.50 on the dollar. They could skate around that before, and blame apparent debt on new accounting rules. Now that the banks need to have the cash for their customers, they STILL don't want to admit that their assets are worth bupkis. Trust me, someone is willing to buy that junk. Maybe at $0.40 on the dollar instead of the $0.50 it's really worth. Their solution? Sell it to the feds for $0.80 on the dollar instead. Hooray!

I mean, I think it's all bullsh*t. Even if there is $500 billion in toxic debt, that represents $250 billion. Fine. Let them all take that hit-- these banks put together have the resources to deal with losses of that magnitude. But they'd prefer not to. So get some PR together to talk about the illiquid market for this debt and go hat in hand to Washington.

To the last point about Kroger not meeting their payroll? Well, I'd rather have the feds make GOOD loans to companies like that rather than take over BAD loans. The feds will be able to sell those good loans when this mess sorts out. Those bad loans will be on our books forever.

If the credit market is seizing up, the Fed need to get into the commercial lending business for the short term. But they won't have to. I bet Warren Buffet would be very happy to loan Kroger some cash. So would GE. Good companies will be able to borrow money should the "real" banking system seize up. There's no real danger that Kroger can't meet it's payroll, that's just more fear mongering from Wall St. insiders interested mostly in saving their jobs.

The comment below should begin "I have to agree with fname."

I have to agree with .

This bailout involves the government (us taxpayers) buying toxic financial instruments at a cost greater than their value. The bailout is intended to reflate the balance sheets of lenders and to eliminate some of their liabilities (principally CDS contracts). Everyone agrees it's a bad idea unless it's the only solution.

AlaskaSense claims that immediate and catastrophic damage will occur to the financial system and the economy unless the bailout is enacted at once. But the examples he provides don't support that judgment.

Liquidity crisis: The central banks have already proved, over and over during the past year, that they can inject as much money into the system as is called for.

Damage to investment bank customers: Investment banks don't have customers; they have clients who pay them fees for financial advice and for selling newly issued stock to the public, a tiny activity in the overall financial market (that is, a couple of IPOs and buyout firms may have to wait a year).

Regional banks: There is no evidence that regional banks are having liquidity problems, and the Fed can provide them loans directly or through J.P.Morgan-Chase or Citigroup or Bank of America all of whom are primary dealers, broker-dealers, as well as commercial banks if they do.

Retirement trusts and mutual funds. They don't need investment banks to trade stocks. They need a stock broker and a stock market. There's no evidence that either is in any danger of vanishing.

Commercial paper. The principal source of short term money required by corporations is the money market industry. It currently holds around $3 trillion. The government has stepped in and now, insures the industry. The runs earlier this week -- which weren't all that great -- will not likely be repeated. The money continues to be available to businesses.

In the end what we've got is an industry which is pulling out all the stops to try to panic the public and thus, the Congress into adopting a poorly thought out, unnecessary, and rash bailout plan to save its hide. The last thing we should be doing is going off half cocked without the information necessary to make an informed and careful decision.

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Yeah, what's the deal with "insuring" the money market funds? It's not insurance... they have never paid one dime in premiums, and now are getting bailed out by the Feds... i.e., the taxpayers. If we didn't extract a HEFTY premium from the money market funds for this insurance, it's just another example of the scam that Wall St., the Fed & the Treasury Dept. is pulling on the American people.

No way, no how, no bailout.

The Feds had an opportunity to do this back in March, when it was only Goldman Sachs on the block, but failed to act or require more capital at the investment banks then.

One silver lining - bank regulators can require (force) investors in these companies to contribute capital (i.e. pay into) in exchange for these asset moves - this is what happened in the S&L crisis with the RTC in many cases. Recapitalize, or else. Imagine if they went to those CEOs and executives and passed the hat. That had better be on the table!

Excellent take on the situation.

Well, so far, Obama is for it, and you're going to be with McCain against it:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/19/a_watershed_moment/#comment-3117998

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McCain is bullshitting as usual, his 'no bailout' baloney is just red meat for the pissed off lunchpail blue collar crowd.

Anything Bush approves McCain would approve. Yet, McCain probably won't show up for the hearings or the vote.

The only thing McCain and the Republicans will block is any aid to the middle class or folks losing their homes - doing so would set a very poor precedent.

I saw Chris Dodd's face today as he talked about, without saying the exact words, what he was told today about america's and the world's financial markets. Apparently the situation is incredibly serious and there is an apparent need to put partisanship aside and create a solution.

I don't like the idea of bailing out the 'players' who have been irresponsible and screwed things up... however, if Senator Obama or someone like Chris Dodd says we have to do this...I trust that we have to do this as unpleasant as it may be.

I am glad there is a democratic majority in congress to prevent some real garbage from being thrown into the situation.

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Patriot Act. Iraq War authorization. Gitmo judicial system. Warrantless wiretapping.

The list goes on. Fear is used to bully the congress into passing bad laws. It stops today.

I don't want to see Chris Dodd emoting away.

I want to hear him tell me exactly what the problem is and why the Fed and the Treasury cannot handle it under current law.

Until he and Frank and their friends do so -- come clean with the American people -- nothing they say is credible*.

* How much money is the financial industry giving to the Senate and House campaign committees and various preferred individual contestants?

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LaRouche Says 'No Bailout--Send These Crooks To Jail'

September 20, 2008 (LPAC)--Lyndon LaRouche responded today to the proposed bailout legislation from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, by issuing a firm "no." "No bailout can be permitted," LaRouche declared. "Freeze all the speculative paper, for purposes of auditing. If you go with any kind of bailout, you lose control over the situation." LaRouche explained, "Congress has got to get ruthless with these swindlers. I am afraid too many members of Congress are owned, outright by the likes of George Soros and Felix Rohatyn. I don't think Congress, collectively, has the guts to act on behalf of the American people."

LaRouche demanded that Congress has to "scare the Hell out of these characters. They have been looting the American people blind for the past thirty years or more. They have sent people off to jail, because they dared to get in the way of their thievery. Now it is time to turn the tables. This is not the time to make nice deals. This is not the time to be reasonable.

"The nation is being screwed. These guys don't have anything coming to them. Poor people have been denied health care because of these swine. Let's start frog marching them off to jail, where they belong."

September 20, 2008:
Lyndon LaRouche, and John Hoefle of EIR, on "When the Crash Comes: Whom Will You Trust?" Hosted by Harley Schlanger.
http://www.larouchepub.com/radio/archive_2008.html

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