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More ground game reporting from Colorado

The MATH as we learned in the primary/caucus season is king, everything else is immaterial. In CO it appears that new registration of voters is approaching 10-12% per county which means that Colorado will grow beyond 3M voters (last reported to be 2.990+) but with registrations coming in daily. Registered voters are GOP 34.4%, Independents 34.1% and  31.5%. That said the trend continues to march big for Unaffiliated voters with Democrats increasing their rate over GOP registrations.

So with Obama polling near 51% over 41% what gives?  Independents are going to Obama 2 to 1 in all areas of the Front Range and even outpolling McCain with crossovers by 4-5% in either camps. With more Registered Republicans going for Obama instead of Registered Democrats going for McCain the Math continues.

In El Paso County, the home of Focus and New Life, where Registered Republicans previously outpolled Democrats almost 2-to-1 and yet this year something is happening that the country club and Focus crowd is not used to:  15000 new registrations are Unaffliated's, 10,000 are Republican and 9000 are Democrats to date. This is not 2-to-1 but something like Independents at 44%, Republicans at 29% and Democrats at 26%. Also El Paso will now have over 400,000 voters.

The problem for Colorado voters is time, not time to register but the amount of time they will have to devote to the ballot, almost as long as filling out their income taxes. With 18 ballot initiatives----eighteen----it is estimated that it will take 15 minutes to fill out the ballot. You think lines were long in Ohio, the lines will probably be 3 to 4 hours after 4 PM on November 4th in many places. I figured out that each precinct in Colorado Springs will be able to process 40 voters an hour maximum with 10 booths and 15 minutes. That would mean each precinct will have to process 33 persons an hour without a let up in the 12 hours to process the expected turnout of 70%.  Fortunately one-quarter of the electorate will use Mail In or Early Voting but still over 150,000 will vote on election day.

So the Ground Game has now accelerated gears in Colorado to get every identified Obama supporter to register Mail In and increase that number to 40% or more. This will make the difference for it is believed that the only loss in the Democratic Slate for the State was the Secretary State where over 15,000 estimated voters were turned away in 2006 because of long lines due to machine malfunctions.

The Ground Game believes it will talk to each Independent, Crossover Republican and Democrat three times before voting and effect the outcome over 5% and possibly 10%. And it is those Independents that are coming over in droves to the tune that only 15% of the electorate remains undecided.

That boring Ground Game....and Math.


Comments (11)

I am in Boulder, CO. Voting early is prominent here. I wonder if the Obama camp could also send a link to the sample ballot so that if people do not vote early they can prepare their choices in advance. That is what I prefer to do. I print it out and use it to make my choices in advance.

Colorado voters have been taken advantage of by confusing wording in initiatives in the past so this is important. Good to remind people that it will take time for people to vote and to vote as early in the day as possible if they do not vote early.

Thanks for the update!

In Evergreen (Jefferson County) we signed up for permanent mail-in voter status a few months ago. We will have our ballots starting Oct 5th.

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I recently moved to Colorado from California, so I have lots of experience with proposition-addled ballots.

I absolutely agree with and recommend the idea of preparing a ballot or list in advance, if you care enough to consider each of the initiatives and don't simply want to categorically vote 'no' on each one (as I have done in past elections). You don't want voters, or yourself, to be in a position to read through the initiatives at the polling station, or to be wasting time thinking about them.

The idea of ballot initiatives isn't a bad one in principle, but in practice it has gotten horribly abused in recent years, especially in California. It was probably inevitable for it to migrate to Colorado, as it is now the preferred way for rightwingers to GOTV to their constituencies, by drumming up all sorts of hot-button issues to rally their otherwise flagging, unmotivated base.

If the front range is trending Obama, then he ought to carry Colorado. The front range is where the problem is.

The western slope will vote Democratic as long as they perceive Obama as not too liberal, IMO.

They elected Salazar handily. He's not terribly liberal for a Democrat, but that works there.

Can't say I care for Salazar much? As you say he is not very liberal and too often he just straddles the crowd and doesn't do much. We have some real milk toast weenie senators in this state...drives me crazy.

Alas, I am moving to Durango but not in time to vote there. My ballot will be cast in Omaha where we hope to get one EC vote for Obama. The mountain region doesn't need my Demcratic vote but Omaha does. Nebraska is one of only two states that split electoral votes. I'm writing in.

I hope it works out. Every vote counts!

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Here in El Paso County, records are being set for people signing up for mail-in ballots.

Also, on last night's CBS affiliate (KKTV) they had a piece on the County Clerk having an investigation into voter registration fraud, sound slightly familiar? Here is the money quote:

“For years, in every presidential election, it’s the same old thing. Radical liberal groups have voter registration drives and in some instances, there is fraud and we prosecute them," said Balink.

http://www.kktv.com/home/headlines/29513189.html#

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Voter registration fraud, eh?

How about Republicans standing in front of Walmart, offering to register voters of any party, but "forgetting" to submit the ballots of Democrats or those Unaffiliateds who indicate, when questioned, that they are leaning Democrat.

Happened to me at the Walmart on North Academy. Fortunately I checked to verify the registration and am now re-registering to vote by mail.

The El Paso County Republicans are absolutely the worst of the breed -- as bad as anyone from the Tom Delay faction. Convinced that God is on their side and able to rationalize any amount of cheating, lying and fraud to support their cause.

Fantastic insight. Thanks for the ground view.

Colorado represents...

I think we'll get there this year, do the right thing, justify the convention.

If someone could just drop a lotta laxative in the CO Springs water supply, we'd be home free.

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