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McPain Is Ailin'

As Louisville1975 said this June, Obama won.  No doubt about it.

First, he won by not losing.  That sounds stupid but it's not.  He's up five points in the trackers, and the foreign policy debate is a road game.  Obama didn't lose.  He made no gaffes, he did not commit to the bailout, he showed heft in foreign policy and gave no ground, he seemed Presidential, the commentariat thought it tight, with some giving it to him narrowly, some narrowly to McCain.

Second, the snap polls show he won, which will drive the media narrative.  CBS's snap poll of undecideds show them 40-22 for Obama, with 38 as a tie.  CNN says 51-38 for Obama.  If you look at historical evidence, such as Ford's Poland gaffe in 1976, or the Dukakis' rape/murder answer in 1988, the perception of winning in the media drives the later move in public opinion more than the underlying event does in the first place.  This matters.

Third, Obama won on affect, because McCain looked nasty.  Obama smiled like a human being; McCain did not.  Obama said some positive things about McCain; McCain said none about Obama.  The scolds in past Presidential debates?  Nixon, Carter, Mondale, Gore.  Add McCain.  The sunnier?  Kennedy, Reagan, Bush43 in 2000, Obama.

Fourth, and let's not pretend it's first, Obama won because he did well on the issues.  Obama went harder at the economy than McCain did, and successfully linked his economic priorities to a strong foreign policy.  Obama and McCain spoke from deep conviction about Iraq, but the American people agree preponderantly with Obama that the war was a mistake they'd like ended.  Obama had the moment of the night, telling McCain "you were wrong" in a litany of Iraq misjudgments.

McCain saying that Obama lacked the "knowledge and judgment" to be the President, which drew a mature chuckle from Obama, was the coup-de-grace, albeit self-administered.  McCain was nasty and contemptuous, and half of the American people presently disagree with McCain's assertion.  Apparently McCain views them as stupid and lacking in judgment too.  Like his pick of Palin, the gibe is polarizing and a call to pick sides.  This isn't a year for that party and its base to drive both bases in that way.

**********
Crossposted at www.dagblog.com, a joint project of Deadman, Articleman, and Genghis.


Comments (35)

Interestingly, the MSM press initially (mostly all) called it for McCain until their polls from viewers were the opposite.

I thought Obama was masterful, especially on Russia.

And I agree, McCain was petty and snide.

Thanks for post. Rec'd.

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This is an astute comment:

"McCain was nasty and contemptuous, and half of the American people presently disagree with McCain's assertion. Apparently McCain views them as stupid and lacking in judgment too. "

Could McCain be making the same mistake that Hillary made? The condescension, the lack of respect? Hillary seemed to suggest that Obama's supporters were delusional. Obviously not a way to win them over. Meanwhile, Obama was almost always courtesy (to a fault): In the same debate where HRC dropped the "change you can xerox" bomb, Obama praised her as running a "magnificnt campaign". He's not as aggressive as some would like, but the respectfulness seems to work. He never disrespects his opponents supporters.

He's not as aggressive as some would like, but the respectfulness seems to work.

And this is a key point. I think Obama is acutely aware, in the way most whites like me can't be, that he has to run differently than his white analog would. The threshold of 'otherness' he has to overcome is immense.

Attacking, belittling...I think he feels, knows, that all those white voters in the middle, all the ones who aren't necessarily comfortable with what they don't know, with what looks different than what they've always known, will tend to assign negative overtones more quickly to anything that might seem too tough, too disrespectful, of McCain. It will spark alarm, create/harden resistance.

We've seen a looser, breezier Obama, quick-witted and challenging in interviews. In debates, though, when he's implicitly challenging the white establishment, physically crowding into the game, he's much more reserved and deferential.

He wins by not losing...but more important, he wins by not making people feel threatened. That was the tightrope he walked tonight.

Yes, he had to appear competent, but he has to try and score points by hitting at a generally respected old white war hero. It's easy for anyone to arouse sympathy for the opponent if observers are carrying latent affection for what he symbolizes, and don't necessarily think you signify the same things.

Well said. Thank you.

Don't really have time for much of a comment at the moment, but I'd definitely agree overall (although I'll confess that McCain put me to sleep for a bit in the middle).

It was a good debate and I agree that since the topic was in McCain's particular area of expertise Obama won by tying. Obama did very well, came of particularly knowledgeable in an area where many might not have known of his firm grasp of the subject. He just keeps improving in his debating skills. He is cutting down on the wordiness and also on the vocalizing while thinking (the ah, ah, ah). He was smooth.

McCain also came off as having a firm grasp on the topics, but the time spent on economic matters didn't favor him. And as you say the snotty comments and body language didn't help. The endearing humorous McCain was overridden by the cantankerous, "get off my lawn" McCain.

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At the end of the debate I thought it was a draw. But after thinking about it this morning, I can see how Obama was given the credit.

On every country discussed, Obama mentioned how the Bush administration havs have with the issue, and how that was not working. Then McCain would say "he doesn't understand, I've and I've traveled there and this is how the world works..." In other words, McCain would continue with the same policies at the Bush administration. He never once said he would do things differently, except that he would also piss off Spain.

Obama stood for change. McCain stood for more of the same. For once, the campaign slogan really works.

What a lot of people really decide when they watch the debate is whether they want to see this guy's face, and hear his voice, for the next four years. I think Obama came off as much more appealing, in this regard.

Good summary.

I found McCain's attempt to diminish Obama with the "He doesn't understand..." line to be singularly ineffective. If Obama had not been confident, calm and obviously in command of the facts, maybe it would have worked. As it was, it just made McCain sound as if he was the one missing something.

McCain looked really mean and nasty.

My fav moment of the debate is when Obama brought it to McCain about that Bomb Bomb song. Fav moment. Did you see McCain's face? Priceless.

My favorite moment was Obama hitting him on Spain, in a rising voice. You know how those Zapatistas are threatening us in _Spain_.

But I don't understand why you like Obama. You're a pet. Don't you know, Obama's petless? Petless!

What was great about the Spain comment was that McCain couldn't really respond without admitting either ignorance, memory failure, gaffe, or a mad foreign policy vision.

Yes. I am a "Petless!" pet. I wait around for Evainne to come home and pet me and she's out gallivanting with all her friends. Do you need a pet? Fill out the form. I'll interview you. I require daily brushing. Just so you know.

Nah. Don't bother. I think I'll send the application to Obama. He needs a Sox lookalike in the WH.

Articleman is right. You should really be a McCain supporter. He's extremely petty.

Who are you calling "vindictive," Flasher?

Me? Hah. I am the soul of saintliness, cuddliness and cuteness. You are jealous of my beauty.

McCain is a Shouty McFace. His face changes color as much as your shirt does. Your clothes have more in common with him than anything found on me!!! Feh.

*khaaaa-hissssss*

ah, sorry for bit of pet-ulance.

I always arch my back and hiss when I see McCain. You know Cindy tried to fill out a form to adopt me. I prefer Evainne.

Besides, I'm voting for Lyndon LaRouche!


LaRouche/John Adams '08!!

Yeah, he's pet-ty. And not in a good way. I'll bet cats arch their backs and hiss with their hair standing on end when they see McCain.

I too would have given the debate edge to McCain, as he hit his points harder and seemed to get the last word in, but also agree his body language was poor. Overall I agree -- Obama only needed to hold his ground here.

When McCain went into his bracelet story, Obama countered, but forgot the name at first. Next time, wear the bracelet...

It was distressing at first to hear Obama say McCain is right, which isn't usually what dueling politicians do. It works for Obama, as it seems to make him look measured and reasoned - we'll see how it plays in the polls. Most people didn't watch the debate, so it's the spin and clip recycle today, tomorrow and Monday that will be telling.

It's the Biden Palin debate that may be painful to watch. Can Biden close his mouth while Palin flops and flails like a halibut in the stern of a fishing boat? The flip side to that is her expectations haven't just been lowered - they're already abysmal.

McCain's characterization of Russia as KGB was jarring. I wasn't sure if he would be perceived as a heroic tough realist or raging mad. I think Obama won the Russia portion of the debate in substance and style (with his cool calm rational demeanor).

But I noticed a part of me was fleetingly effected by McCain's fearful vision of the world which made me want to question Obama's readiness. I'm guessing that was intentional strategy on McCain's part - The world is too danderous and I'm John McWayne.

too dangerous
-edit

Your first version was Head and Shoulders above the edit.

The world IS danderous.

Funny. Thanks for the pun.

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I kept thinking he wants to be another war president, lord! that's more Bush.

Second, kept wondering, how on earth can they allow Palin to debate. Another fascinating week coming up.

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I would have given a slight "win" to McCain, but maybe thats because i am paranoid and as i listen to the debates i think too much how the undecided voters might react rather than focusing on the overall performance.

I would like to have seen Obama talk about the perils of "blunt instrument" policy making, and be more direct on the reckless nature of John McCain. Freezing spending levels; hot headed reactions to Russia, as just and extension of the last administration which had a similarly boneheaded approach (invasion of Iraq).

I would also like to have seen him hit harder on how sleazy and dishonest McCain's campain is -- and how fundamentally the "Straight Talk Express" appears to have been left in the roundhouse. McCain's credbility has been strained to breaking point -- i think its fair game for Obama to go directly to that point.

I am also paranoid in that I thought McCain painting the state of the world in stark emotional colors was effective with undecided's. Reading others opinions makes me think I'm wrong in my initial reaction.

I think it's not Obama's role nor style to attack McCain in such blunt and confrontational manner. I suppose that's Biden's role (and it is sure fun to watch).

Obama did better, but nothing game changing about the debate at all. He hit McCain hard on the wisdom of the Iraq war and owned him on economic policy. The least effective part of Obama's debate was linking McCain to Bush - not that he didn't try. Obama mentioned Bush 10 times - McCain 0. But it wasn't direct enough in my opinion. If I didn't know better, I'd have walked away from that debate still believing McCain is full of mavericky goodness rather than BS. Wonder how true that is for independents and Republicans.

McCain did fairly well and landed some blows of his own. I'll admit the $900 million is earmark requests made me say ouch. I think his arguments aganst Obama re: the surge were also fairly effective, but Obama of course has the upper hand of we shouldn't have gone into Iraq in the first place.

Best performance of the night was Jim Lehrer trying to pin down the candidates on what the bailout would mean for their proposals. Obama danced around it just like McCain did which was disappointing. Which brings me to why I would have preferred this debate happen after the bailout deal though. I want both candidates to have to OWN their positions. This is not just a game of chess or political advantage. I'd like a candidate to deliver the tough truths about the next 4 years and their plans.

So overall I think the debate was a win for Obama, but no aha moments. I don't think many minds were changed by it. Looking forward to the next one, but hope it's less talking points, Russert-like gotcha quotes and more honest dialogue from both sides.

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I thought this was Obama's best debate performance to date. He's much improved and will no doubt improve a little more in the next two.

It's funny, liberals seem a little disappointed in some ways with Obama's performance precisely because they know the arguments he could have made.

'Why didn't he hit McCain on X?'

We know that most of McCain's argument was stupid, wrong and/or falsehood.

But the more important point is that the audience for these things is really the independents and undecideds.

Who knows how it will play with them? It's hard for partisans to get inside their heads. FWIW, it seems that the consensus is that Obama scored a strategic victory here, given the perception that this was McCain's strongest, and perhaps only, topic.


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More support for my argument, from Fallows:

"Obama would have pleased his base better if he had fought back more harshly in those 90 minutes -- cutting McCain off, delivering a similarly harsh closing judgment, using comparably hostile body language, and in general acting more like a combative House of Commons debater. Those would have been effective tactics minute by minute.

But Obama either figured out, or instinctively understood, that the real battle was to make himself seem comfortable, reasonable, responsible, well-versed, and in all ways "safe" and non-outsiderish to the audience just making up its mind about him."

http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/on_strategy_and_tactics.php

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Not to respond to my own response to my own comment, but I summarized my thoughts here:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/tactics-vs-strategy-the-john-m.php

I see the tactics/strategy thing as a re-try of the whole "empty suit" nonsense.

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So I'm not the only one that was drifting off when McCain was speaking. Like it or not, people listen to Barack Obama, he commands attention and coupled with his demeanor of courteousness and respect, how can you not like the guy?? I was thoroughly impressed and this debate fulfilled my expectations. I think that in the next two debates the difference will become crystal clear!

Obama '08 ~ Changing the World :)

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McCain lost this one. He came across as Col. Nathan Jessep - "You can't handle the truth!" - a blustering martinet who doesn't listen, who doesn't collaborate or compromise...a man who gives orders or takes them, who sees the world in black and white.
Time to show these schoolyard bullies the exit. We live in a world that demands leadership and statesmanship, not the cranky worldview of a muzzle-loader. What is it with these short white males who think they know everything but can't make coffee?
Time for a Change.

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You've nailed the short man problem, fougasseau. A difficult thing to say, but it's unfortunately true that a lot of short males feel obliged to behave like assholes to prove their masculinity. Maybe he didn't look at Obama because he is really trying to prove size of schlong, not qualifications to be president.

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I spend an inordinate amount of my online time explaining this very thing to rabid voters of all colors, but white voters in particular. Obama is quite capable of being witty and cutting. One need only read his books and personal writings or see him in smaller environments to know this man is nimble with the english language. However, he does not have the leeway to be those things. The inherent fear of many, many, many white voters that an angry black man will seek retribution for all manner of racial wounds they have inflicted over the years is irrational but very real. The minute he weilds his considerable intellect or wit over the white establishment guy he becomes exotic and dangerous - the boogeyman. I've joked only half-heartedly that some white people seem to think the guy is going to enslave them and free all the criminals from prison with EBT cards with no limit. It's crazy but I swear that's what they think is going to happen on November 5. That's what the man has to contend with.

I also continue to remind my fellow Obama supporters that this man has run the most efficient, successful and improbable campaign in the history of American politics. Maybe we can trust just a little that he has a handle on these nuances. :)

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