« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
McCain bounce is over, sinking
I'm not really sure why everyone panicked after Sarah Palin was selected as VP and McCain got a bounce. Not only are McCain and Obama now within the margin of polling error of each other again, but while Obama hit the magic 50% figure on September 1st, McCain failed to do so with his big bounce.
Also, Obama and McCain's polling numbers are BOUNCES. Prior to the Democratic National Convention, Obama polled between 44% and 45%. Now he is at 45% again. Before either convention McCain polled at between 44% and 45% AS WELL, and is now at 47%. If the trend over the last 2 or 3 days continues, tomorrow they will be tied and by Monday Obama will be ahead again.
So let's all take a deep breath and cease the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Comments (8)
Please God let it be so. I'm more unsettled by the change in the electoral college than I am in the national polling. I don't think I can bear it if Cindy McCain gets to buy her way into the White House. I know that's petty with all else that's at stake, but I hate her pinched little face SO MUCH.
September 13, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trends in the Electoral College tend to lag behind the trends in the national polling.
But, watch those swing states closely. Obama needs to come out strong in CO, NV, NM, OH, VA, and FL. IN is looking like more of a long shot, of late.
September 13, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carol,
Are there any Kerry states he is likely to lose? Because if he wins Kerry states, plus either FL or OH, he wins. We don't even need to worry about CO, VA, NM, VA or NV.
If he wins three of the big four (MI, FL, OH, PA), he wins. Am I missing something?
Also, I am leary of some of these electoral college sites. Real Clear Politics, as well as other sites, insist on characterizing Washington and Oregon as swing states. Are they high? The Pacific Northwest is Obama country. You are about as likely to see a unicorn as a McCain sticker or lawn sign out here (and I live in a blue collar, small city!). Washington is as blue as Vermont. It is not a "leaning" state. Not even close. Perhaps they believe that the Gregoire/Rossi race somehow puts the presidential race in play, but it doesn't. It didn't in 2004, and it won't now. Same with Oregon, although Oregon will be much closer (east v. west). But just because Oregon will be close does not mean it's a toss-up state, or even a leaning state. It's just a polarized state where the west wins, albeit by a small margin.
So add 18 electoral votes right there to the tallies you see on these sites.
And then add Iowa. What joker could possibly think Iowa is in play right now? Obama is way ahead, and the Palin effect has plateaued (spelling?). So add another, what, 13?
Although I was supremely annoyed at the constant heaping of praise on Palin by Obama and Biden, as a blatant over-compensation for not appearing sexist, I am no longer worried about the polls.
I signed up for the Counsel for Obama voter protection team. I offered to fly myself anywhere I'm needed on election day. Looking forward to a good show down with the armies of disenfranchisement. I'm already saving for bail. This election may very well be won or lost in a court--again.
September 14, 2008 12:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the thing is I read both left and right blogs, and what killed McCain's bounce wasn't anything left blogs are talking about.
McCain put out several pro-Amnesty for Illegal Immigrants messages, and the conservatives of America then were forced to remember that their candidate isn't Sarah Palin, but McCain or, as they like to refer to him "Captain Amnesty".
To be honest, the biggest hole in McCain's armor is the Amnesty for Illegals. If Dems started attacking that, his popularity with his base will disintegrate. All Obama has to do is post vids of Romney's vicious attacks on McCain's policy there.
This is how Republicans win elections. The fact that Democrats refuse to "go there" is why they lose elections.
There's lots more to target. If Democrats want to take out the Republicans, I recommend you watch the old Republican primary debates and use their own issues against them.
September 13, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
the race was bound to tighten. Everyone loves controversy and the Republicans were so desperate to cling to something in the wake of years of beating that their brand has got that they were also bound to rally. But the bounce is subsiding, leaving the race much as it was before. What is NOT as before is that McCain will not be able to rescue his integrity after his disgraceful week of Rovian lying, he will not be able to stuff the genie back in the bottle, so he is going to sink as the novelty wears off and the subpoenas get served.
September 13, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really, going by FiveThirtyEight's Electoral Vote trend.
From Barack at over 310 electoral votes (270 needed to win) some days ago, he's now slid down to 248.2.
He's gone from easily winning to losing drastically. This is a pretty well-adjusted, state-of-the-art election prediction measure.
September 13, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rubbish.
When Barack first dropped in the polls, his electoral vote numbers stayed pretty well where they were, that's because it took a couple days for state polls to catch up the national tracking poll (state polls are not done every day).
Now as Barack is catching back up and surpassing McCain, his tracking numbers will be well ahead of his EV numbers until they stabilize, due to exactly the same phenomenon, so for the rest of the week, even though he's caught up, you'll see McCain well ahead in electoral votes until all the states have had post-catchup state polls.
September 13, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Five Thiry Eight runs a very conservative model. It takes a long time to report out poll changes as EC changes. Obama's trend is closing the gap Palin opened but Five Thirty Eight will not report that for a few days.
September 17, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment