I've run another set of simulations of the election using data from Votemaster Andrew Tanenbaum's www.electoral-vote.com.  State polling data is now coming fast and furious. The least recently polled state, Louisiana, had an average poll date of September 12, and just 16 states haven't been polled within the past week. So most of these results incorporate voter reactions to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the Federal Reserve's takeover of AIG, with over half coming after Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke proposed their $700 bailout of distressed mortgage assets.

I'm still running a 4% margin of error snapshot, which represents what would happen if the election were held now, and also a 10.75% margin of error, which is about how accurate the polls were in 2004 this far out. The bounce John McCain got in the aftermath of selecting Sarah Palin and the GOP convention has now fully dissipated, with Obama posting about as strong numbers as he had all year.

4% Margin of Error:
Obama wins 96.7%, averages 299.5 EV (low 243, median 297, high 370)
McCain wins 1.6%, averages 238.5 EV  (low 168, median 241, high 295)
Electoral tie 1.7%

10.75% Margin of Error:

Obama wins 87.0%, averages 298 EV (low 203, median 298, high 390)

McCain wins 12.2%, averages 240 EV (low 148, median 240, high 335)

Electoral tie 0.8%

Obama has a clear lead, but as we saw with the GOP bounce, things can change quickly. It is interesting that McCain ties about as often as he wins outright in the 4% margin of error case. The most common tie scenario there remains Obama winning all the Kerry states except New Hampshire, plus Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico, with McCain winning the rest of the Bush 2004 states. Even the wider margin of error doesn't help McCain much any more, as recent polling has stengthened Obama's once tenuous leads in Michigan and New Mexico, and states the GOP convention seemed to take out of play, like FL, NC, and MO, are again competitive.

Almost all the changes this week were good for Obama. Obama had leads of 4, 4, 3, and 9 in Colorado, with one outlying poll (from ARG) showing McCain up 3. Florida, which looked like it might be drifting out of reach, is now basically a tossup again, as 4 new polls gave McCain leads of 1, 5, 2, and 1, while two other polls (ARG and Mason Dixon) gave Obama leads of 1 and 2. Michigan had 8 new polls, with one showing a tie, one giving McCain a 3 point lead, but the other 6 giving Obama leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, and 13. 

8 new polls in Pennsylvania all showed Obama head, by between 2 and 9 points. Ohio remains leaning to McCain, where one poll showed a tie, but two McCain 4 and 1 point leads. Like the tar heel state, however, the more recent poll was weaker for McCain. Virginia had 7 polls, with Obama leading in 4 and McCain in 3.

It seems that the continuing financial crisis  isn't helping McCain. Rasmussen released two polls in each of four different states, and in all four, the more recent poll was better for Obama. Obama increased his Pennsylvania lead from 3 to 4, and he cut McCain's Ohio lead from 4 to 1. But he did even better on Tobacco Road, turning a 3 point North Carolina deficit into a 2 point lead, and taking a 5 point lead in Virginia after trailing be 2 before.

The news wasn't all bad for McCain - after looking like it might be competitive, Montana now looks safely red, with two new polls giving McCain 9 and 13 point leads.

The state polling appears to lag the daily tracking polls a bit, but the recent momentum has been entirely in Obama's direction. Presumably the McCain campaign knows all this (and arguably has even better data), so I have little doubt that his attempt to "suspend" his campaign was an intentional campaign tactic designed to try to shake things up again. The current narrative wasn't working, and he needed to try something to change the game. The Palin selection had worked well tacticially (although it perhaps now may be turning into a net negative), so McCain hoped to do some other "maverick" like thing to shake things up. It looks like that hasn't worked, and last night's debate, which both sides had reasons to be happy about, also likely didn't provide McCain a significant boost.

The clock is ticking for the McCain campaign, and Obama is still keeping his cool, and his lead.