It looks like I'm not the only one who's been pessimistic about the lackluster Obama campaign of late. Obama's been giving off-message, lackluster interviews. More Americans think McCain is going to win than think Obama's going to win. McCain might have a got a 10-point bounce after the convention. But what really gets me? The Obama ads have been dreadful. 
Nate at 538 raises tonight just this topic (see "Obama Needs Better Ads"). He writes:

One of the more disappointing elements of the Obama campaign has been their advertising, which has tended to focus on fairly conventional, 30-second, issue-based spots. Their ads have been neither creative nor attention-grabbing, in contrast to both their reputation for being a media-savvy campaign, and some of the relatively creative spots put together by the McCain team.

I suspect that the next 2-3 weeks are probably the most important point in the campaign for advertising. Once the debates begin, it will probably be too late to fundamentally redefine either the candidate's message or the opponent. And advertising is difficult in the two-week home stretch between the debates and the election, with campaigns usually constrained to conventional biographical spots or hail mary negative attacks. So now is the time for the Obama campaign to go all out and spend some of those hundreds of millions of dollars in donations they have collected.

I agree with Nate that the Obama campaign's advertising has been very disappointing and totally unmemorable. It's way past time to echo the campaign's "change" narrative ... or even to just educate voters on the campaign's stands on the issues. It's time for game-changing ads that redefine the race on terms more favorable to Obama.

Now I'm not an advertising guru, but I'll tell you what I thinkn would work. I think the Obama campaign needs to make PALIN the focus of a new negative advertising blitz. But I think it's wrong to try to criticize her on THE ISSUES. People don't love her because of her stands on the issues (well, pro-life Republicans excepted). People love her because they think she's a great, likeable, very attractive, very charismatic person with a great biography.  
Going after Palin on the issues will do nothing. The only effective anti-Palin ad is going to have to pull on a gut-level, emotional response. Obama has to be willing to smear her. But do it honestly. An honest smear, really. Obama has got to make voters dislike her. Or at least realize that voting for McCain-Palin would be a huge mistake. 
So here's the ad I'm recommending.

Sarah Palin has been an abysmal failure as a mayor and a shockingly incompetent mayor. Use characterizations of her record-- especially "incompetent" -- to raise doubts about her abilities. Go with the Lydia Green green. Tell them that Green is the leader of the Alaska state senate. Then quote Green saying: "She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president? Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?" Then say: AND LYDIA GREEN IS A REPUBLICAN!!! 

A CITY BUDGET NIGHTMARE. HIGHER TAXES. SHE PUT BIG OIL COMPANIES AHEAD OF ALASKANS. SHE'S EVEN AGAINST POLAR BEARS. 

Then remind voters that McCain's the fool who picked her. And conclude with, "Is McCain a maverick or just reckless?"

Something like that. Anyone else got any advertising ideas?