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It's Happening. Were You Prepared?
In late August, right before the Democratic Convention, I wrote a post titled, "It's Gonna Happen, And When It Does, We Need To Be Prepared".
I said,
Because of the Democratic Convention about to begin, and Joe Biden nowWell, it's happened, officially. McCain has technically overtaken Obama in National Polling (though by an incredibly small margin, .1 point according to Pollster.com).
officially Obama's running mate, the polls will most likely sway in
Obama's favor over the next week or so.
Then the Republican
Convention will come just one week later, and things will get skewered.
Very skewered. When they do, we have to be fully prepared for what's
going to happen: McCain will get a boost in the polls, perhaps even
truly overtaking Obama for the first time since he clinched the
nomination.
Anyone who does not accept this as even a possibility is in denial.
I think Nate Silver put it best when in a recent post he said,
Polling, especially during the convention period, is often described asI would be lying if I didn't have that reaction. Despite all my preparation, it's still slightly disheartening to see McCain doing so well in the polls.
a "roller coaster", but I think the metaphor is a little bit more
powerful than that. You can ride a particular coaster a dozen times,
visualize the ride, and tell yourself that you aren't going to be
scared when you go down the first big hill. But inevitably, if you have
genetics like mine, you'll be still be screaming once you've actually
strapped yourself in and are riding the damned thing. There are certain
things that are so experientially intense that it's probably impossible
to fully prepare yourself for them -- you can know exactly what's
coming, and it doesn't matter.
But in my post, which I quoted above, I also stated that,
When McCain starts having a better showing in the polls, we need,I'm writing this post to reiterate those sentiments. If there was ever a time to stand up and declare our support for Obama; if there was ever a time to fight back against Republican and Rovian smears and lies; if there was ever a time to push harder, donate more, speak out with more passion, energy and enthusiasm, that time is now.
absolutely not, let it get us down. Morale is a huge factor in keeping
the hope alive. Morale has been plaguing the Republicans this entire
Election cycle. Let's not let is plague us.
We need to not
declare that the fight is over. We need to put things into perspective,
and most of all, we need to fight harder than ever to make sure Obama
surges ahead of McCain when the post-Convention poll skewering finally
subsides. We need to unite, stronger than ever, campaign harder than
ever, and donate more than ever.
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Comments (86)
Thanks for the reminder. You DID tell us and I remember not believing you.
September 8, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll admit it was one of my more predictive posts, hehe.
September 8, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
These stupid polls don't mean diddly. They are meant to generate money and attention for the people that payed to have them made. Nothing more, nothing less.
Obama is comfortably ahead in projected EV tallies, just like his campaign has said all along.
Once all the garbage comes out about Palin and she is exposed as the fraud she is, McBush's judgment will be exposed as well.
Obama will win this thing with about a 5-10% lead in popular vote. It ain't even gonna be close.
Think about it. These pollers are doing everything they can think of to juice the numbers up for McBush RIGHT AFTER he should be getting his convention "bounce."
What is the result of these purposely skewed results? A tie.
You people really think that means something bad for Obama? Get real, McBush is toast.
September 9, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
You called it! Good job.
When one owns investments and is not a trader, then one learns not to be constantly checking on security values...its just too stressful! I take a long term attitude on my investments and I do the same on my candidate, these day to day fluctuations are real, but not indicative of how the whole thing will work out.
Trust your judgement on investments and trust your candidate in elections.
September 8, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Nathan, Stiff upper lip and all that, hup hup, cheerio. If only we didn't have the press gunning for Mooseburger Mama. Hey, did I ever tell you I can pick 25-30 blue crabs in a single sitting? I bet Sarah couldn't do that.
I fear your post will sink like mine did because 3-4 people are swamping with multiple posts. If so, please repost. We need your message.
September 8, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Kate. I certainly will repost it if it doesn't make it up there this time around. I noticed how long it took to even get a couple recommends.
It also doesn't help with the press we thought we could at least partially trust with the truth fucks us over, like NBC has by dropping Olbermann on election anchoring.
And I didn't know about the blue crabs. That's pretty awesome. ;D
September 8, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Say WHAT? How long is that setting? And where are the crabs from? Crisfield, Vieanna, St. Micheals? Knife or hammer? And does that include claws? I need more information before I fall for this. This really smacks of some kind of "moosekilling mama" pack mentality!!!!
September 9, 2008 5:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lower Patuxent River. One sitting is when the pitcher of beer is empty (shared with others of course). Knife AND hammer. Just saying we all have our talents. If we had mooses in Maryland, I'm sure I could shoot one, although I wouldn't want to. I have been known to shoot a rat.
September 9, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was a little discouraged this A.M. when I saw Josh's post from the wee hours showing the really BIG gap in the polls. But after canvassing last weekend the determination to help Obama win this thing superseded any and all discouragement. This is doable, but it will be a fight to the finish. Thanks for the pep talk, Chrono.
September 8, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
No problem, and it's certainly doable. We just have to keep giving it all that we possibly can.
What are the real important numbers? State-by-state numbers.
Look at what Al Giordano has to say, basing off of Nate Silver's analysis of the most recent polls: http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/new-swing-state-numbers-and-what-we-can-see-in-them
Wow, McCain. An advantage of 0.1%? At the height of your "bounce"? Freaking brilliant.
September 8, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
-But take a look at today's events. One for McCain/Palin together in Missouri and a fundraiser in Chicago. Six for Barack: Two in Florida with Hillary, two for Barack in Michigan and two for Biden in Wisconsin and Iowa. Six communities with lots of local press amd outstanding crowds at all of them.
Three TV appearances: Michelle on Ellen, Barack on both O'Reilly and Countdown plus much footage of the interview on Rachel Maddow's show.
Tomorrow four events for Obama/Biden in Missouri, Ohio and Virginia. Two for McCain/Palin in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Plus TV again on O'Reilly and Countdown. And I think he will be on Letterman on Wednesday.
September 9, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Was anyone else disappointed in the Keith Olberman interview? Obama seemed tired and hesitant, and way too verbose as he talked around each question. Someone needs to coach him on short, pithy answers to simple questions that require only simple answers.
And what was Rachel Maddow thinking when she posed that "uppity" question through Keith? How the hell was he supposed to answer that? That kind of question should go to subordinates, if anyone. When I heard Obama talking about the "making stuff up" in his stump speech his voice was almost soprano, as he asked rhetorically, "I mean, what are they thinking?"
He has got to sit down and figure out how to deal with this sarcastic, lying, unwise babe in an effective way. I say:
Start out with a list of the previous days (or hours) lies, and then say, "This is my plan:"
...and spell it out SIMPLY and CONCISELY so that everyone who is just tuning in can get it. He needs to lose his screechy voice and sound authorative like he does when he gives a speech, and he needs to answer questions better; stop being so hesitant, and acting like he never thought of the question before. It is fine to have a canned answer as long as it is a GOOD and MEMORABLE canned answer; I mean that dope Palin is still saying, "I just said thanks but no thanks to that bridge to nowhere, etc" and despite the fact that it is a bald-faced lie people eat it up!
Just think how people might react to a smart turn of phrase that happened also to be TRUE!
September 9, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you give me one example of something Obama could say in an interview with Keith Olberman that wold get Mrs. Palin to stop saying "I just said no to that bridge to nowhere?"
September 9, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
He shouldn't stop her from saying it over and over again. He should just announce, "Every time you hear the republican VP nominee lying about her role in the bridge to nowhere, ask yourself, 'Is this deja vu all over again?' We are tired of lies and spin. The Straight Talk Express has made a U-Turn."
That's all he has to say. He doesn't need to Prove anything -- it's all out there. He doesn't need to say two paragraphs of evidence. He just needs to call it and say a few memorable things to keep it in peoples' minds when they hear it. she helps because she says the exact same words over & over!
September 9, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
He shouldn't stop her from saying it over and over again. He should just announce, "Every time you hear the republican VP nominee lying about her role in the bridge to nowhere, ask yourself, 'Is this deja vu all over again?' We are tired of lies and spin. The Straight Talk Express has made a U-Turn."
That's all he has to say. He doesn't need to Prove anything -- it's all out there. He doesn't need to say two paragraphs of evidence. He just needs to call it and say a few memorable things to keep it in peoples' minds when they hear it. she helps because she says the exact same words over & over!
September 9, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, third try. Normally I would give up, but I think this matters:
He shouldn't stop her from saying it over and over again. He should just announce, "Every time you hear the republican VP nominee lying about her role in the bridge to nowhere, ask yourself, 'Is this deja vu all over again?' We are tired of lies and spin. The Straight Talk Express has made a U-Turn."
That's all he has to say. He doesn't need to Prove anything -- it's all out there. He doesn't need to say two paragraphs of evidence. He just needs to call it and say a few memorable things to keep it in peoples' minds when they hear it. she helps because she says the exact same words over & over!
September 9, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with a lot you say. Obama just plains over talks some answers. Nice and sweet will win over a long versbose answer. I have been preaching this to some Obama supporters in my office.
September 9, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're still ahead where it counts, even in the midst of the big GOP bounce. We are still ahead on the electoral maps. I put a post here with more specific info:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/polls-upon-closer-examination.php
September 9, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd, thanks.
September 9, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Thanks for reminding us Chrono! This helps.
September 9, 2008 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Curse the search function at TPMCafe because, Nathan/Chrono, I DID remember your fine post of a few weeks ago where you predicted exactly what was bound to happen at some point in this campaign and that was likely to happen after McCain got "last licks" with his convention.
To be fair, McCain had to ask an unqualified neophyte to be his veep in order to pull it off.
But, yes, you predicted it and you told us, before it happened, not to freak out.
Folks, Natha/Chrono is right.
There's no point in freaking out about this unless for you freaking out means: blogging for Obama, blogging against McCain, pointing out that Palin is just pure trash in lipstick or, giving money to Obama. If those things mean freaking out to you, freak out.
And... I've been at TPM a long time. I've never seen a call as accurate and as well timed as this one from Nathan/Chrono (Nathan and Chrono are the same, right?)
September 9, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Aw, thanks, Destor. =) And yes, Nathan and Chrono are the same. You can call me whichever one you want.
Yeah, curse the search function. It's done me no good, either.
September 9, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was less anoying that there was none before when avitars were attached to all comments. Without them the comments section is much less easy to use.
September 9, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was less anoying that there was none before when avitars were attached to all comments. Without them the comments section is much less easy to use.
September 9, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Chrono...I remembered, and haven't freaked.
As much as we all logically think we should be up 15points, we all also know in our heart of hearts this is going to be a very close election...
Keep workin'!
September 9, 2008 2:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey KateO, I'm from Bawlmer, Merryland. (Also fairly new to this site, hi everyone!)
25-30 blue crabs at a sitting?? That boggles the mind. Way better than mooseburgers, too. : )
September 9, 2008 5:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
And a lot more work than skinning a moose, for a lot less meat.
September 9, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey KateO, I'm from Bawlmer, Merryland. (Also fairly new to this site, hi everyone!)
25-30 blue crabs at a sitting?? That boggles the mind. Way better than mooseburgers, too. : )
September 9, 2008 5:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey KateO, I'm from Bawlmer, Merryland. (Also fairly new to this site, hi everyone!)
25-30 blue crabs at a sitting?? That boggles the mind. Way better than mooseburgers, too. : )
September 9, 2008 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. So sorry for the triple post.
September 9, 2008 5:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great blog, as usual.
I warned TPM readers of this phenomenon just yesterday - The Chicken Little Syndrome - yet somehow I missed the wave, because it sank to the bottom with Loki lobbing torpedoes the whole way down.
There is another reason besides having the confidence of winners moving into the home stretch. That reason is what it does to your tone on the "winning" team. Any perception of weakness in either party and the initial response is fight or flight. Well, liberals are by God FIGHTING this year, so flight won't ever be the option selected.
That also tends to come across as shrill and unhinged by those folks to the right of the middle who are trying really hard to be convinced to throw in their lot with Obama and a rising wave of progressive thinking. Getting anxious and combative isn't necessarily the best face to put forward in the midst of a battle. Winning the war is only possible when each "battle" in the polls isn't treated like Waterloo and are instead given their proper weight.
Simple fact of the matter is Barack Obama is drawing republican votes and John McCain isn't bringing home democratic ones. The independents may split, but the democrats out-number the republicans right now by close to 10 percentage points nationally. That is a landslide given the turnout we saw in the primaries. There is absolutely no reason to panic, despite what the polls may say even up to election day.
Barack may not get his 50-state victory if McCain keeps his Rapture Right base tight, but he will win by 10 to 15 points in the popular vote just the same. The polls will never show that big of a gap.
That's my prediction, now I just to remember where to look for it in November. :O)
September 9, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some very good observations, especially:
Getting anxious and combative isn't necessarily the best face to put forward in the midst of a battle. Winning the war is only possible when each "battle" in the polls isn't treated like Waterloo and are instead given their proper weight.
I will dissent in terms of the popular vote totals. Though I think Obama will come out with a win of around or over 300 EVs come election day, I don't think he's going to win the popular vote by as wide a margin. I think he'll break 50%, but I think that the popular vote will be within 2-4%.
The reason why? McCain has shored up huge support in deep red states, making them even redder. Though it won't matter in terms of winning the election, if he can expand his win over Obama in states like Utah, he'll rack up more votes, and tighten the margin of the popular vote, even if it doesn't affect the Electoral College outcome. Bush won there 71-26. McCain could win 80% of the vote there, increase his popular vote count, yet not change the outcome of the election whatsoever.
September 9, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps you are right on the popular vote totals, but I anticipate a huge surprise there as well as the electoral college.
He has to have a large margin in the popular vote or a governing majority still isn't won. We can't be at each others throats after this election and expect to get anything done.
Barack's victory must be overwhelming for America to finally wake up and pay attention to what must be done.
September 9, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're quite right. I completely agree. We need Obama to win a clear, solid majority. But I have a hard time believing that he'll break anything higher than 51%. Still, breaking 51% of the popular vote would be considered huge by American Presidential Election Standards.
September 9, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the past 40 years of precedent hold sway, you could be right and I would have to be happy with a convincing electoral college victory.
Still, I have a gut feeling that the electoral map is shaping up in a way that hasn't been seen since 1932, numbers we need to push forward an entirely new way of doing things in this country.
50%+1 won't get it done.
September 9, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also have a hard time believing that 50%+1 won't get it done (nice rhyme on that, by the way). I don't think it's impossible for Obama to get higher than that, but just based on the enthusiasm the Republicans have for Palin, and, as a result, the McCain/Palin ticket, I think Obama winning a larger portion of the popular vote seems less likely.
One thing to take note of, though I don't know how reliably we can count on it, is the Barr factor. Do you think Barr could rack up 1-2%? Probably not, but I wouldn't count out the chance of it happening.
I certainly hope Obama can win a sweeping victory in both the EC and the Popular Vote. But, at least for now, I'm gonna stay conservative in my analysis and predictions.
September 9, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some very good observations, especially:
Getting anxious and combative isn't necessarily the best face to put forward in the midst of a battle. Winning the war is only possible when each "battle" in the polls isn't treated like Waterloo and are instead given their proper weight.
I will dissent in terms of the popular vote totals. Though I think Obama will come out with a win of around or over 300 EVs come election day, I don't think he's going to win the popular vote by as wide a margin. I think he'll break 50%, but I think that the popular vote will be within 2-4%.
The reason why? McCain has shored up huge support in deep red states, making them even redder. Though it won't matter in terms of winning the election, if he can expand his win over Obama in states like Utah, he'll rack up more votes, and tighten the margin of the popular vote, even if it doesn't affect the Electoral College outcome. Bush won there 71-26. McCain could win 80% of the vote there, increase his popular vote count, yet not change the outcome of the election whatsoever.
September 9, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another "Amen" -- and another recommend. Kelso above lists what Obama, Biden and Clinton (and I'm sure others) are doing. If THEY can still give it their all, so can we!!
And this whole Palin thing feels 'brittle' still. You know how a really hard rainstorm that comes on very quickly also ends very quickly? and how a light, steady misting rain can last for days and days? Palin is the sudden, rapid shower and Obama is the steady, subtle but LASTING rain.
And IF she goes down (either badly enough to be bumped off or just much less glittering), look where it will have left McCain. Someone with bad judgment who let himself get pushed to the side, right? That's not going to be good - every day Palin looks stronger, McCain is looking weaker. In the end, after the 3 debates, people will be choosing between the people at the top.
Nathan -- Thank you, thank you for saying it beforehand ...... and for admitting that it's a blow nonetheless.
For me the bottom line is this: If Obama is still willing to give it his all after 19 months, how can I do less? And even if the worst happens and he loses, do I want to have to face myself knowing that I (and millions others) slacked up at the end and that may have made the difference? That's the worst case view -- to pull out and slap myself with in those moments when I really *believe* it's not going to work.
When I get a little more rational, however, and think about how Obama's handled things so far (and about sudden rain showers), I can just as easily *believe* he's going to make it .... and start daydreaming about that moment some critical state is turned blue and it's happened!!! (My guess is that I'll burst into happy, relieved tears and cry for about a week).
YES WE CAN!!
September 9, 2008 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel the same exact way. Sometimes I imagine the future, watching that TV, and hearing the news anchors saying, "Barack Obama's done it, he's won, and become the first African-American President of the United States" -- it sends chills up my spine.
As usual, I'm overly impressed with your comments, Elizabeth. And you're so right-on, that after 19 months, Obama's still going strong. How can we not? How can we not give it everything we have as he's giving it everything he has? This is not simply about him. This is, as he says, about us. Let's never forget that.
September 9, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think I love you. :) Seriously, great post! I remember you saying this, so we should just be calm, but get to work: send money, door-knock, write letters to the editor (or help someone else do so).
September 9, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You flatter me. ;D Thank you.
September 9, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am getting pretty confident about Virginia. Northern VA is pretty much DEM; the Charlottesville area is too now. The good luck we've had with our Dem governors only helps, and even Virgil Goode (the boil on the butt of Central Virginia) may be going down.
September 9, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that. Really. I like hearing what Virginians have to say about Obama's chances there. If there's one state I'm banking on going blue this year, it's VA. I've always thought his chances there were much better than in places like IN and FL. Keep us updated.
And I don't know if you read his stuff, but Al Giordano is always looking for information on the ground game operations in swing states. If you have any significant information, I'd definitely pass it his way over at The Field: http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield
September 9, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nathan, what do you think of Ed Koch campaigning for Obama in Florida? He is still very popular with snowbirds from NYC, even though he campaigned for Bush. I see he has endorsed Obama, saying Palin pushed him over the edge.
September 9, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be honest, until you mentioned it, I didn't even know he was campaigning for Obama.
I think he might have some sway. In FL? Probably more than elsewhere in the country. He's a strange guy. He "flip-flops" a lot, though his "flip-flops" seem like actual educated reevaluations based on the circumstances. Still, I think his age, his popularity and celebrity could be quite appealing to those in FL. I'm sure there's a lot of people there that still remember him on The People's Court. ;D
September 9, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and I forgot to mention: his fight against anti-Semitism is another factor that really works in his favor.
In all honesty, I'm starting to think Obama has a very good chance in FL. Much better than I ever did in the Primary or throughout the summer.
September 9, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Biden is tremendously popular in the Mid Atlantic region. People from that area often retire in FL and they know Biden and relate to his blue collar style. I remember when his wife and daughter were killed, the entire Philadelphia/Jersey/Delaware region was in mourning with him. If Hillary, Joe, and Ed work it down there, I actually think FL will go blue.
September 9, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
He was always a blast to have around as mayor of my town. I remember one instance during the Reagan years when they were trying to stage some bogus "war on drugs" occasion at the White House that involved inviting a slew of big-city mayors to a panel. Koch held forth wildly, obviously off-script, and inveighed against Ed Meese's core pretext that we were "winning" the war on drugs. Koch went into an apoplectic slow burn rivalling the Ralph Kramden/blabbermouth episode. "We're not WINNING the war on drugs; we're LOSING the war on drugs." Sound bite for the news cycle. He completely hijacked the event. Ed Meese looked homicidal. Can't remember who was WH press sec at the time, but he said, after the event, "Ed Koch is a price we have to pay for the fact that New York City is the media capital of the country." And a great town!
September 9, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
People forget he was a member of Congress for 8 years. I lived in NYC when he first came into office. The city was a mess--dangerous and dirty. He was bombastic but he got things done. He can be a little loopy but in a smart on-target way. I hope Obama uses him in the right places. I'm glad to have him aboard. He's a formidable enemy.
September 9, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
CVille: I am in neighboring MD. Did you follow that story about the bogus mailing that went to VaTech students about voter registration issues and possibly losing their financial aid and dependency claims unless they voted absentee? What was that all about and has it been rectified? I like using that word, "rectified", when discussing an asshole move.
September 9, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The NY Times has a piece on it.
It's been "rectified", sort of, but it's clear that the information being given to students in VA is still a bit muddled.
September 9, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
And here's the link:
NY Times on student voter registration in VA
September 9, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weird. I posted a link, but it disappeared.
Here's the link to the Times piece:
NY Times on VA student registration f*ck-ups
And Chrono?
Great post! (As was the earlier one). I think you probably helped innoculate some of us against chicken little hysteria...
September 9, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just heard about it this morning on NPR. Evidently they are saying that students who register at college can't be claimed on their parents' taxes next year. I can tell you, with several years of college students under my belt, that is simply untrue. The test is how much you contribute to them; not if they are in school.
It is a scare tactic only, aimed at liberal voters. I have already sent away for absentee ballots for my two away children. That is what parents should do, rather than have their kids register where they are going to school anyway.
Voter suppression will be a huge factor this year. If we all believe this election is stolen Barack Obama better not concede! We need to get a fair election this time, even if it means having a protracted mess on our hands. Gore and Kerry caved way too soon. Bush should never have been president, and McCain will never be truly elected, so it's up to all of us! But mainly Obama has to stand tough.
I really think it won't come to that, because I believe that all those non-land-line voters who never got polled will show up and elect Obama by a fucking landslide!
September 9, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey everyone. Obama needs some change, so empty your pockets and drawers and send him some change for change. He will gladly pay you Tuesday November 4 for a mooseburger today.
I know, that doesn't make much sense, especially if you are too young to remember Popeye, but I liked the sound of it.
Send Obama your change for change!
September 9, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks! Actually, because of you and NCSteve, I haven't been freaking out...
September 9, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad I could help. =)
September 9, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
We all have a million policy reasons to hope (and work) for an Obama victory, of course. But when it comes to imagining the day, my thoughts are always of my young kids. They were all born under a Bush presidency, and I dream of the day when the President represents something they can both admire and aspire to.
September 9, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the Stock Market we call the McCain bounce a "Dead Cat Bounce"
Take heart in this and that polling is skewed Republican based on a methodology that does not correct for the baby boomlet and shifting demographics. How many young people have had to sell their homes and move to places like Georgia and North Carolina because their property taxes and cost of living was too high. Look at the growth of Raleigh Durham. Young people prefer Obama over McCain 2 to 1 and they are simply not being polled - they do not have landlines.
National Polling is Like Voter and is based on a 2004 election template. The convention just means that Palin energized people to actually answer the poll, where they had been demoralized before and were not answering as self-described Republicans. So now they've filled out a 2004 model to the T where they were undercounting self described Republicans because of lack of enthusiasm.
Well guess what? The template is WRONG. Demographics have shifted due to several factors, age of population, the boomlet, and inspirational democratic candidate, etc.
They are just not counting people with cellphones instead of land lines, people who stayed home last election because they were not excited by John Kerry, people who felt gov't did not matter, but now recognize a difference in their personal lives - and young people who for the first time have found a candidate that they like and admire.
September 9, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. It's funny; the other day I was explaining that term to my Dad and he gave me the weirdest look. Haha! Makes sense when you think about it... Live cats always land on their feet, but dead cats...? Hmm..
September 9, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, it was a good one Chrono. Well done. More important than the prediction was the advice to be prepared. That's the thing. To mentally PREPARE yourself for the fact that McCain/Rove are gonna do some wild things... and that, initially at least, they're gonna work. That way we don't waste as much time screeching or bemoaning polls, but go right to work on what Palin means, how their strategy has changed, where that means we retarget resources, how it changes our arguments, etc. In short, battlefield changed, now we adapt, move on, etc.
Anyway. Good one dude. ;-)
September 9, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, but it doesn't quite beat your prediction and analysis of McCain picking a woman. That was unreal, man. ;D
September 9, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spot on.
Polls shmolls, I look at the electoral map and cheer up. I have never been polled, don't know anyone here in my town that has been polled and frankly don't care.
I understand that close polling is in the interest of the MSM, (gotta keep people watching so the sponsors don't get nervous etc.) but I hate it. That said....
WHATEVER!
Cheer up folks, Palin is gonna crash hard in the debates if the blogosphere doesn't get her first and as for mcsenile, well... piss on that turd.
Keep posting, keep donating, spread the word, put up a sign and a bumper sticker and keep fighting back!
September 9, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chrono? I read your earlier post, though "damn, hope this doesn't happen, but it probably will"...and you were remarkably on the money with this prediction.
I actually think this is a pretty important test of Democratic supporters. Do we wail about the polls, or do we say "screw 'em", and work harder?
I don't visit Republican sites, but I would predict that there isn't, and wasn't, near the same degree of teeth-gnashing and garment rendering when McCain was behind that goes on around here when Obama is behind. I think your earlier post probably innoculated a lot of people for yesterday (and today, and probably tomorrow as well). Nice work.
September 9, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not even slightly worried. I'm looking at nothing but the electoral map. And from where I'm sitting, Obama looks great--multiple paths to victory--and McCain still looks to be in tough shape.
But to be on the safe side, I just donated another fifty bucks to Obama last night. We really have a great opportunity, if we're willing to open our wallets, to SWAMP McCain financially. Hey, let the Republicans accuse us of trying to buy the White House. Whatever it takes.
September 9, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
you just put the finger on the reason I don't ride roller coasters.
But thanks for the reminder!
September 9, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love applying the line from the I Ching to Barack Obama:
"In times of war it is desirable to have a cautious and humane general"
Something we have been missing for 8 years.
September 9, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's insulting for you to suggest that the rampant dissatisfaction with Obama right now is primarily because there's a temporary bump for McCain in the polls. "You must think we're stupid." No, we're unhappy because the Obama campaign has been letting us down for months, and we're sick of hearing the impossible-to-verify rationalization that they've been focused on the ground.
We are desperately looking for signs that they have started to get it. There are some encouraging signs since Monday: a new negative ad, and an attempt to pick a fight on foreign policy. But it could be too little too late.
Still, I agree that we should pay little attention to our misgivings at this point. We can't really change Obama's campaign if he's determined to run it his way. Our September fears will soon pass, and the debates and future events will change the landscape, and we'll find more reasons ahead to be optimistic.
But please, yes lots of people are hyperventilating. But it's not (just) because of a few bad polls.
September 9, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's insulting for you to suggest that the rampant dissatisfaction with Obama right now is primarily because there's a temporary bump for McCain in the polls. "You must think we're stupid." No, we're unhappy because the Obama campaign has been letting us down for months, and we're sick of hearing the impossible-to-verify rationalization that they've been focused on the ground.
We are desperately looking for signs that they have started to get it. There are some encouraging signs since Monday: a new negative ad, and an attempt to pick a fight on foreign policy. But it could be too little too late.
Still, I agree that we should pay little attention to our misgivings at this point. We can't really change Obama's campaign if he's determined to run it his way. Our September fears will soon pass, and the debates and future events will change the landscape, and we'll find more reasons ahead to be optimistic.
But please, yes lots of people are hyperventilating. But it's not (just) because of a few bad polls.
September 9, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you're actually "hyperventilating" over Obama's "weak performance", I feel kinda bad. You basically have no faith in Obama's ground game strategy, which is technically how he propelled himself to winning the nomination. But I guess it doesn't really matter, does it? Since we can't get an aggregate estimate of how well his ground game is going, you're gonna freak out about it. Great. Can't put it in a number, must mean it's not working. I highly, HIGHLY suggest you go out and do some canvassing and campaigning for Obama, especially in the big swing states. Then come back and tell me about his ground game. This might help: http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield
I agree that Obama has been more reactive, but I wouldn't put it as far as Josh Marshall went, especially in the context of today, with not only the ad calling out McCain/Palin as liars, but also with him outright calling out Palin for making stuff up.
Then we have the newly emerging narrative concerning education, which Obama initiated. It's a huge win for Obama whether McCain responds or not. Young voters (like me) care about the debate around education. We want answers and solutions. It's a debate Obama needs to be having, and it's a debate he'll win.
"Lackluster interviews"? If you're referring to the interview with Olbermann, that's one interview. Or.. do you consider every interview he has lackluster? And where, precisely, are McCain's interviews? And Palin's, for that matter? They're not even putting themselves out there. But no, no credit is given to Obama and Biden for doing them.
It's insulting that you even make such an insinuation. I wonder whether you actually read my post, or you simply skimmed it and came to that ignorant conclusion. The point of this post was NEVER about anything EXCEPT the dissatisfaction concerning the polls, and the "hyperventilation" that many face as a result SPECIFICALLY as a result of the polls. I challenge you to tell me where I ever said the only thing upsetting (some) people right now is Obama's performance in the polls (under McCain's Convention "bounce"). I'd truly love to know where I ever made such a suggestion.
You're obviously pissed off for your own personal reasons that deal with issues far outside the immediate subject of this thread. I hope you can come to terms with them.
September 9, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is hilarious. I came back to the thread to ask you, Nathan, to repost your ground game post of some time back, figuring it would help raise people's morale.
Then I see you mentioned it above.
Still, it would be nice if you could repost the original essay. People often ask me on what I am basing my faith in Obama's victory and I cite your post information.
September 9, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha, that's great! Maybe I will repost it. Or maybe just make a new essay concerning the ground game as it appears in the battleground states now that the Conventions are over. The game has, in a way, changed quite a lot. But we'll certainly see what happens. I am very glad, though, that I'm able to keep your faith and hope alive in the whole thing. That really makes me happy. =)
September 9, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would be great.
It'll go to the rec list and numero uno!
September 9, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. Since you never directly said that dissatisfaction with polls was the ONLY reason people are upset with the Obama campaign, I was too hard on you. Sorry.
I don't think it's unreasonable, however, to say that the thrust of your post is to tell the world to cheer up, calm down, and give the Obama campaign a break for the brilliant work their doing behind the scenes (i.e., ground game) where nobody can really quantify or measure its impact. Judging by how much your post is recommended, lots of people agree with you.
But I really think that's the wrong message right now. We should be more concerned with expressing our frustrations with how Obama is (mis-) managing aspects of his campaign, particularly the advertising, interviews (did you see his weak performance in the O'Reilly interview? OMG), etc. I think we're both concerned that Obama win this thing, but we want people to focus on different things: you want people to don't worry and be happy; I want people to shake the Obama tree until it wakes up ... before it's too late.
September 9, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate that, and I understand your concern.
My point is not "don't worry, be happy", it's "don't freak out, lose morale, kill your enthusiasm and end up losing. Instead, put frivolous things like polling (especially national) into perspective, take a deep breath, and get back to fighting the good fight."
I saw the first part of the O'Reilly interview, and you're right, it wasn't very good. But Obama asked for it by going on O'Reilly in the first place, something he NEVER should have done given O'Reilly's history of twisting the facts and fabricating the evidence.
I do not think Obama is MISmanaging his campaign. He's not managing it the way that a lot of (rightfully) angry liberals and progressives would have him manage it.
I do agree, however, that he needs to start shaping the narrative. We're in the home stretch, and he needs to stop pussy-footing his way around this whole thing. It is frustrating to see McCain start the fights. Usually the one who starts is the one who wins. But I am looking positively about the recent string of statements and the recent attacks on McCain/Palin from Obama and Biden. Bill Burton's statement responding to McCain's latest attack ad was nothing short of electrifying.
Obama started the education war. If that ad is all McCain has to offer in response, then he's already lost the debate. Obama needs to continue this strategy, and amplify it.
September 9, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love applying the line from the I Ching to Barack Obama:
"In times of war it is desirable to have a cautious and humane general"
Something we have been missing for 8 years.
September 9, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
My dear, it is like having surgery - you're never prepared. You might think you are, but you aren't.
September 9, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo on another great post.
OT: Great new vid from a Kos blogger: McCain promises "other wars". Be afraid, spread the word:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdJUCU1UH2w
September 9, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo on another great post.
OT: Great new vid from a Kos blogger: McCain promises "other wars". Be afraid, spread the word:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdJUCU1UH2w
September 9, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
FIRED UP!!!!
READY TO GO!!!!!
Just found out today that I'll be doing legal work on Voter Protection for a labor based effort in Ohio!
September 9, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
good for you! Thanks.
September 9, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good posts, Chrono, and CVille Dem. I am grateful for the pep talk from Chrono, but I agree with the words of CVille Dem.
No matter. This week I am going to get out there and start registering voters in Northern Virgina. I'm going to be fighting hard, and I expect Obama to do the same. I have been unemployed for one year, with the hardest times hitting me this summer, and yet I woke up the day after Palin's speech and donated my first $25 to Obama's Campaign. I had been volunteering beforehand, but I knew it was important for us to concretely express our disdain and support more than ever after her speech.
And that's where I'm at right now. I'm relieved by the points made here, but it is about leadership right now. I agree with both Josh and CVille Dem. I am an old-school organizer. I appreciate Obama's style of putting us front and center at his convention. Good organizers are always participatory, and act on the wishes of the people. But, when they do take the mic and speak, it is for the wishes of the people behind them.
In those 24 hours after Palin spoke at the convention and took a swipe at not only Obama, but all community organizers and disenfranchised people, he raised $10 million dollars. Those were the people speaking. It was a very clear message of action. It was NOT the message of deflecting on commentary in interviews. My $25 said, "it's on now; bring it". Obama is our chosen organizer, and leader. We have spoken, and given him our cue. The mic is in his hands now. He must speak not only for himself now, but for us. Don't let us down.
September 9, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I guess you were right.
I also guess you're the only one who cares about that.
September 9, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am? Why did this get so many positive responses and recommends (93 as of this comment)? Go troll somewhere else. We don't like your kind around these parts. =)
September 9, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't sound so kind to me.
But I shouldn't be surprised.
Most people don't come to message boards to actually talk about the subject of the forum.
They come to say "look, I was right".
September 9, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also predicted that McCain was going to choose a woman, but not in a blog, just in my head. It seemed to be the most rational thing for him to do. But, I think I gave him more credit than he deserved, because I was thinking: Dole, Whitman, Kay Bailey. Never in a million years did I think he would make a mockery of women or his own candidacy in this way. Can't wait for the debates.
September 9, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
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