With less than two months to go, Barack Obama is poised to lose one of the most winnable elections in American history.  The Republicans are saddled with an  unpopular war, a working class recession, corruption, torture, perversion of the Constitution  and a president who at this point couldn't get elected to the School Board in Crawford, Texas.  The Congressional elections will be a bloodbath.
And yet Obama is probably going to lose.  There will be a lot of post mortems about what happened and how the most gifted politician of this generation lost an election that was his to win.  Here are a few reasons:
He Stopped Being Obama - Three or four months ago, someone decided that Obama had the grassroots locked up and should tack to the center.  Mr. Transformation become Mr. Triangulation.  The cave on telephone company immunity dumped a bucket of water on some of his most fervent supporters.  If we wanted a DLC Democrat, we would have gone for Hillary.
He Didn't Pick Hillary - Sure, the Clintons are high maintenance and ruthless and the White House would have been a daily re-run of Macbeth.  They are incredibly popular with traditional liberals and the most formidable fund-raising team in American politics.  One of the most depressing things about an Obama loss is that Bill and Hil will be able to say, "See, we told you so."
He Picked Joe Biden, Nice Guy But Garden Variety Pol - Had he picked Chet Edwards, the most qualified person his team vetted, he would have been praised for thinking outside the box and the press would have spent weeks explaining who this mystery man is (the Palin effect without the trailer part narrative) and found out what an extraordinarily accomplished congressman he's been.  By picking Biden, he left the door open for McCain to re-package himself as the agent of change.  
He's Too Damned Cool for His Own Good - Americans like nice guys.  But, they like winners better, even if they lie and cheat.  Sad, yes, but true.  Somebody needs to cut back on Obama's meds.  
Racism - This is the one that will get the most press although if Obama had played his other cards right he could have overcome it.  A lot of Wal-Mart moms--older white women--have a problem with black men.  Many of them would have voted for Obama anyway because they are fed up with the way the country is going.  Palin gives them the excuse they need not to.
Obama is young.  Twelve years from now--after McCain has had his four and Hillary her eight--Obama  can try again.  Maybe by then he, and the country, will be ready.
Still, it was a lovely fairytale.