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How Much Would It Have Cost To Bail Out Consumers Instead?
The recent bailouts of Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG led me to wondering how effective these bailouts will end up being compared to offering assistance to struggling homeowners instead.
McCain and the Republicans have resisted bailing out what they refer to as "speculators"--homeowners who got in over their heads with abusive mortgages and overpriced real estate. One point everyone seems to be ignoring is the fact that it's not a choice between buying a house you can't afford or living nowhere. It's a choice between buying a house you can't afford or renting an apartment you can't afford. It's not exactly cheap to rent an apartment these days. In many ways, the tax advantages of home ownership make taking a risk on an overpriced house far more economical than getting stuck in an overpriced lease.
As usual, the Republicans are talking out of both sides of their mouths. Do they favor bailing out speculators or not? It seems to me if those speculators are huge corporations, then they support it. But if you're a homeowner who's been swindled by one of these huge corporations, not only are you on your own, but you're going to be forced to pay for the bailouts of the very corporations that are ripping you off. The best part of this is that the Federal government is now in the mortgage business and the investment banking business and the insurance business. And now THEY will be in charge of ripping off consumers.
We're being screwed in every way possible, and the Republicans are behind it. The Obama campaign needs to get on this message, pronto.







Comments (27)
Read Robert Kuttner's Squandering of America. The book spells out in start and uncompromising detail of how risk was shifted to the individual over the last 40 years.
Confronting this challenge is one of those things resting squarely on the shoulders of a President Obama. He'll need to use the Bully Pulpit to put the New Deal controls back in place with a modern updating as well as set up new ones to make the financial markets a little less vulnerable to future manipulation.
Even then, they will always try to game the system, even if it takes decades to accomplish their goals. We just have a chance to get one of our own in there for a while and reset the clock a bit.
Great blog.
September 17, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other point: the Fed has now taken over millions of home home mortgages--many of them in the process of failing. Since it's already well-established that many of these mortgages were sold under false pretense, with phony teaser rates to draw buyers in and fine-print provisions to royally screw them after they'd signed the paper, the question becomes, will the Fed continue ripping these people off, or will these mortgages be restructured to offer relief to consumers who were taken advantage of? Whose side is the Fed on?
September 17, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with redoing loans is that unless you're willing to redo everyone's there's no way to make it equitable. For example, three years ago you took out a reverse amortization loan so you could keep your payments low. Stupid, but they were pushed hard and pushed by reputable firms. You understood the risks and took them, and now you're kind of screwed.
Someone else did the same thing but didn't understand that the principal balance would be going up and so would payments. They didn't understand the risks, and now are screwed.
Who should get bailed out? Both received the benefits of a low payment, so should only the one who was tricked get a hand? How would we know the difference?
The way govenment helps is to help get both homes sold. I don't think there is much they can do on the loan side.
September 17, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think a simple start would have been to cap the rates on ARMs and credit cards. That alone might have been enough to avert the current crisis. The thing is, there is no one in this situation more motivated than the home buyer. They don't want to lose their homes. But I've personally seen what happens in these situations. A couple of friends just lost their house because their mortgage payment went from $1100 a month to over two grand. Then they started missing utility bills and credit card payments. Next, all their credit cards went to the default rate. You know what happens next.
It's thievery, pure and simple, and the people who are doing the stealing know it.
September 17, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing I think would be effective is a $10,000 tax credit for anyone who buys a new primary residence in any given year. Assuming that people who are selling are buying something else, the credit might offset the pain of a short sale. You can use it once every three years. That would cost about $55 billion. But it would encourage people to move, and in doing so stabilize the housing industry. I beleive as housing goes, so does the rest of the economy.
There are new laws that help stimulate first-time buyers this year (HR3221 in case anyone cares) by giving them a $7500 interest free loan int he form of a tax credit, but that expires July 31, and honestly, I haven't seen a lot of traction from it. I'd like to give the people who want/need/can move up into a new home a good reason to do so.
September 17, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing I think would be effective is a system similar to Japan, where you're allowed to put a relatively large amount of money into a savings account each year, tax free. The Japanese don't take out mortgages to buy a house--they save to buy a house.
September 17, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know enough about Japanese culture to comment on that, but this is one thing I beleive strongly.
We think America is about a lot of things, and it is, but I firmly beleive the central theme of America is the abilty to stand out on a parcel and say "this land is mine." It's built into our collective subconcious. People came here for that reason, because there aren't too many places on the globe that make home ownership reasonable. We allow mortgage interest to be deducted from our income taxes -- I can't think of another country that does that -- all because we understand how important home ownership is to our collective mentality.
We aren't a nation of renters; even the most liberal of us wants things we can call our own.
Also, with home prices where they are -- the national median right now is, I think, about $250K, people could not save that much money in a timeframe that allowed them to actually buy.
And remember, if someone is renting, someone else is making money there, too, and when those markets start to get tight, they landlords can be every bit as ruthless as speculators.
September 17, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good post rabbit and jason for the follow up. I think we can all agree that things have gone awry. When you force people into mortgages that they have no ability to afford this is the result. If we would have gone back to the days of 135 houses and giving people an actual leg-up then we would all be better off.
I have to say though, simply offering tax credits is too little too late. Those are republican "type" programs that are no real help to the consumer.
Sometimes it is hard to recognize this country as the one I grew up in.
September 17, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why don't you think a tax credit -- a refundable one -- would be a benefit to consumers? It's money in their pocket.
Also, no one was ever forced into a mortgage. They may have been tricked, but not forced. Unless the lender was amazingly unscrupulous and was willing to violate RESPA laws, everything was disclosed. The buyer may not have understood, but somewhere in the loan docs they were told, and signed anyway.
I don't understand the 135 houses reference. What does it mean?
September 17, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Also, no one was ever forced into a mortgage. They may have been tricked, but not forced."
Either way, they're in a mortgage they can't afford. So far, it's cost us billions of dollars, several of our biggest corporations and a few hundred points on the American stock market. And the world markets are suffering as well. All because there's no reason NOT to tell consumers the truth when they apply for a mortgage.
September 17, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
That last sentence, of course, should read: All because there's no reason NOT to hide the truth from consumers when they apply for a mortgage.
September 17, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I heard something other than New Democrat bipartisan b.s. coming out of the Obama campaign. He doesn't like the worn out ideas of the left. Well, some of those "worn out" ideas included the financial regulation that kept us on an even keel after the Depression. We could use a little more FDR and Truman and little less triangulation.
September 17, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true Bluebell!
September 18, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
You automatically assume to ideas Barack speaks of have to do with New Deal controls on markets and capital. He has never advocated anything but bringing those back and strengthening them.
Those ideas you gush about actually started on the right before FDR picked them up, so perhaps you might take a look at your own prejudices before projecting them on Obama.
The entire Left/Right construct in this country is beginning to crack and all you guys do is try to patch that motherfucker back together again.
Let it crumble.
September 18, 2008 6:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks HR - I've been asking that question myself - it's the trickle down bailout philosophy that the Fed is implementing.
As a former community bank executive, there are a few things here worth pointing out, but the theme here is dominoes. In a nutshell, money moved from stocks to mortgages after 1999, rates fell after 9/11, and a full housing boom was underway. The Bush admin and congress removed regulatory barriers directly or indirectly, and lenders themselves borrowed more money to do more deals. Lenders took on more and more risk - lending to borrowers in the sub-prime category. On paper, many of these borrowers either barely met or were just beneath their lender's policies, but the deals were done anyway. And those borrowers had no financial ability to miss a single paycheck.
So when the worm turned, this whole chain of dominoes fell, starting with the sub-prime borrowers, and then leading to the largest lenders in the land. Crash!
Keep in mind that the majority of borrowers out there can still afford their mortgages. But what hurts everyone, and I do mean everyone, is the drop in home values. Because of the number of foreclosures and glut of homes built, home prices are falling very quickly. Even more stable or conservative areas are seeing a 5-10% drop. The bottom line is millions of people effectively can't sell their homes or they'll take a loss. That means they can't move to take on a new job. And with gas prices rising...
Normally, the American consumer has spent us out of recessions. But now, what do you think will happen with consumer spending?
Bluebell is right on. The "new deal" regulatory caps as well as increased domestic government spending increases (health care, infrastructure, energy) can help the economy. Which candidate is proposing this? I think the other one left us on our own.
September 17, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except it was Bill Clinton repealing the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 that started the flood, not Bush who wouldn't come in for a few more years. Not saying Bush did anything but exploit the existing deregulated atmosphere, but much of it started under a "democratic" president.
September 18, 2008 6:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps, in light of recent acquisitions, we should be taking another look at universal healthcare. After all, we the taxpayers now essentially own an insurance company.
September 17, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks bunnycat. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one on this board that sees this situation from a marginal homeowners POV. It's nice to have a bit of back up.
What I want to know is, why aren't some of these jerks in jail yet?
Usary and bending the rules are obvious. Why aren't these petty common thieves in jail? That's where they belong. Orange jumpsuits and cellmates named Bubba.
September 17, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fact that the Treasury and the Fed is wrongfully bailing out bond holders (they're not bailing out corporations -- the shareholders of Bear Stearns? Lehman? Fannie and Freddie? AIG?) is no argument for bailing out mortgagors who put nothing down (and sometimes received DAP) and thereby, got the right to occupy houses they "owned" only on paper.
Time to move on.
September 17, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you realize this is the Democrats fault for forcing the banks and mortgage brokers out to lend money to people who can't afford the loans (i.e. minorities)?
At least, that's what the local right-wing radio nut job tells me, as well as the local sports radio talk show hosts who feel compelled to share their political opinions (while simultaneously bitching and moaning if some Hollywood celebrity ever remarks about politics).
Of course, the Fair Housing Act has only been around for 40 years, and we're only just now bailing out Freddie, Fannie and AIG. That's some delayed reaction.
But hey, $85 billion for AIG is a bargain. According to this site, the we've spent $555 billion on the Iraq war to date. So AIG is just 0.153 Iraq Wars.
September 17, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that instead of bailing out the charlatans and criminals who have bilked regular people to the tune of billions we should instead make mortgage rates more affordable for the average people of the country. After all, they (we) are the ones bearing all the risk and paying for it all. It's just a damn shame Obama doesn't seem to think Democratic solutons are particularly helpful. He never condemns the crooks who got us in this mess and doesn't suggest supporting any solutions that would provide relief to the average American. I'm not sure he actually understands what has happened out here in the real world. And in fairness to him, I'm not sure there are many Democrats in Congress who understand the catastrophe that has and is taking place right now.
September 18, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
We could have afforded Health Care for Everyone.
Hey, maybe that's the way to get Universal Health Care. First, you create an enormous private corporation, call it AHH (American Health & Hospitals), then have it lose LOTS of money, (MRIs for everyone! Woo-Hooo!), then declare a crisis, and have AHH be taken over by the Government using taxpayer dollars to ...
Nahhh, they'd never fall for that.
September 18, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stepping back from the current Presidential race, the issues raised by the economic crisis were well-articulated a couple of months ago in Bill Moyer's interview with Andrew Bacevich:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08152008/profile.html
My take on Bacevich's thinking is that the real "third rail" of American politics is something that can't even be discussed by a major party politician: the "American Way of Life" is slipping away, and efforts to hang onto it drives foreign policy, military policy, environmental policy (or lack thereof) and many other aspects of US and global politics at the dawn of the 21st Century.
September 18, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
[talking to myself again...]
The single best explanation of the home mortgage crisis I've found, "The Giant Pool of Money" audio program on "This American Life:"
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242
September 18, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
This radio show really does provide a well thought out, very informative overview of the "mortgage crisis" -- especially clear if you follow along reading the transcript.
Well worth the time invested.
Thanks for the link, h0db.
September 18, 2008 6:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
How Much Would It Have Cost To Bail Out Consumers Instead?
That question is priceles. Excluding the the capital necessary for a bail out of our neighbors, who got caught up with the frenzy for financial gain.
Many were afraid of being left behind in the race for financial security, many of our friends were relying on their ability to cash out in the later years by downsizing.
Out of fear that our government was bankrupting the Social compact of Social Security.
Think of the costs to the cities now dealing with blight, or the costs now being redistributed by homeowners who have seen their values depreciated.
There should be a higher cost placed upon the party whose ideolgy, has given us the Hoover depression, and now has perpetrated another attempt to purchase our American dream (Home ownership) at ten cents on the dollar.
Eventually someone will own the assets, the question is how cheap can they get it for.
September 18, 2008 5:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
While this Congress was passing laws making it TOUGHER for Americans to declare bankruptcy, they completely ignored the warning signs in the financial meltdown. Now the gov't is using tax payer dollars to bail out and prevent these companies from going bankrupt.
They punish the American worker by making bankruptcy more punitive, yet enable these financial institutions to continue with their risky behavior by offering a bail out.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
Obama '08
September 18, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
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