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Guessing at McCain's Final Gambit
Something struck me when I was looking at the RCP tracking poll. Like other tracking polls, it shows that Obama has been consistently ahead since April, except for a one-week inversion due mainly to the Palin pick.
Now, if I'm John McCain or one of his top advisors, the tracking polls show one thing: McCain will lose on November 4 unless he gets a Palin-like poll bounce which coincides with election day. The daring gambit of picking Palin has been the only thing which has put McCain ahead, albeit just for a few days. Therefore, McCain needs to pull another daring gambit in the days just before the election, in hopes that he'll get another bounce at the right time.
It's a given, really, that McCain will try a final gambit. The only question is what form it will take. So, TPM readers, what do you think? Will it be some horrible and completely fabricated smear about Obama? A "Hillary moment" by McCain in which he tearfully renounces his lying campaign and promises to honorable going forward? The possibilities are endless.
My guess is a last-minute substitution in the VP slot. A bold, daring VP pick is what got McCain a poll bounce the first time, so he'll do it again. He'll keep Palin around until the weekend before the election, when she'll drop out to spend more time with her family, etc. Then McCain will pick another left-field candidate for his new VP -- probably someone with economic expertise, the better to take advantage of the public's #1 issue. Fiorina, maybe?
Now, if I'm John McCain or one of his top advisors, the tracking polls show one thing: McCain will lose on November 4 unless he gets a Palin-like poll bounce which coincides with election day. The daring gambit of picking Palin has been the only thing which has put McCain ahead, albeit just for a few days. Therefore, McCain needs to pull another daring gambit in the days just before the election, in hopes that he'll get another bounce at the right time.
It's a given, really, that McCain will try a final gambit. The only question is what form it will take. So, TPM readers, what do you think? Will it be some horrible and completely fabricated smear about Obama? A "Hillary moment" by McCain in which he tearfully renounces his lying campaign and promises to honorable going forward? The possibilities are endless.
My guess is a last-minute substitution in the VP slot. A bold, daring VP pick is what got McCain a poll bounce the first time, so he'll do it again. He'll keep Palin around until the weekend before the election, when she'll drop out to spend more time with her family, etc. Then McCain will pick another left-field candidate for his new VP -- probably someone with economic expertise, the better to take advantage of the public's #1 issue. Fiorina, maybe?
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His only hope is a Cheney-rigged terrorist attack that scares the bejesus out of the undecideds in battleground States.
September 28, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheney will manage to gag Condi and get Der Shrubenfuehrer to give Israel their coveted Green Light so that they can get their war on with Iran.
Our naval air forces will be required to attempt to finish the job (aint gonna' happen, btw).
Among plethora of malignant fallout scenarios, add the certainty the $700 billion everybody's creaming about won't amount to squat as opposed to what Cheney's Last Gasp will end up costing us.
And that's not even bothering to delve into the martial law nightmare possibilities we've all read & discussed endlessly...
September 28, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think a last-minute VP swap would be suicidal (especially if it's Fiorina!). To do something like that so close to the election would scare people off like few other things. (Plus all the ballots would still carry Palin's name, I believe.)
A death-bed conversion with respect to how he's run his campaign would be a concession of defeat, practically a self-administered eulogy. Some people might admire him, but they wouldn't elect him.
If McCain's still down significantly a week before the election, I don't think you'll see anything dramatic. But don't get me wrong: I'm sure we'll see a couple stabs at dramatic game-changing stunts/attacks over the next few weeks.
I think a lot of establishment Republicans are starting to resign themselves to a McCain loss this time around. The battle for them might end up being more about the Senate than anything else.
September 28, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I think a lot of establishment Republicans are starting to resign themselves to a McCain loss this time around"
Why so confident? McCain's on top in the bellweather state, Missouri. There's no way Obama's going to win Ohio. They're probably confident about Florida. Pennsylvania looks as though McCain will probably win it: no way those people who "cling to their guns and religion" are going to vote for Obama.
There are far too many undecideds in all the swing states and they'll do just as they did in the later primaries - vote for the `safe` choice - the devil they know.
September 28, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
"McCain's on top in the bellweather state, Missouri. There's no way Obama's going to win Ohio. They're probably confident about Florida. Pennsylvania looks as though McCain will probably win it: no way those people who "cling to their guns and religion" are going to vote for Obama."
Bad info. PA is probably in the bag for BO. Ohio is a battleground state, and thus, by definition, there is a way Obama can win it. FL is iffy. No idea on MO. But then again we have Iowa, Colorada and -- gasp -- VA!
September 28, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain is down significantly a week before the election, we will DEFINITELY see something dramatic. A stable old fellow like Bob Dole could go quietly into the good night, but McCain is very different from Bob Dole. McCain is a compulsive gambler. He has a terrible temper. And he can't abide the thought that a whippersnapper like Obama is standing in between himself and the presidency he so deeply deserves. He simply won't be able to help himself: he'll do something crazy.
It's the only play a gambler could make. If McCain is significantly behind, he'll have nothing to lose by making a crazy play, because not doing anything would lead to certain defeat.
September 28, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, there are two - maybe three - rather deranged men we have to worry about this coming month: McCain (and I agree he'll do something, probably several somethings), Cheney (who I'm convinced is behind the Palin pick and really wants HER in place), and Osama Bin Laden (and/or other extremist Islamic terrorists) .... who certainly wants the Republicans to stay in power since their wrong-headed actions are the basis of his/their power. There was a video last time -- it would be surprising (and deeply wonderful) if there isn't something this time.
Another post has a one-word description of Obama: resilient. He certainly has been; he certainly will need to be. And so will we, I'm afraid.
September 28, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
By then, what McCain does people will just say: damn that guy is desperate and can't manage his campaign, how can he manage the country?
A last minute VP pick is plausible, but so politically oriented and people will feel like this guy is just erratic and impulsive. Basically, he's a mess.
The tear thing is plausible as well. But can people swallow it and see it as sincere on the dawn of election day? I think not.
That being said, don't underestimate FOX News, the Republican attack machine, or Schmidt's Karl Rove tactics until the end. I'm sure Obama doesn't and his people are probably making up scenarios of possibilities and how to respond.
In this campaign though: get ready for anything. Republicans may even wish there will be another terrorist attack, that's how desperate they are.
September 28, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
CN - great post. I just posted on this as well with the Giuliani replacing Palin "Hail Mary" pass...
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/the-next-hail-mary-with-an-eco.php
September 28, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm new to TPM, and can't believe the confidence here. A recent study on NPR predicted Obama's race will impact 6 or 7%, that they'd tell others they were voting for Obama, but go with the "safe choice" in their minds once in the voting booth, as was said before.
Statistics are mostly bullshit, ("Fuck you, Frank Luntz") but I think the left can't count this one over till Obama's taking the oath...
September 28, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a difference between being realistic and attributing superhuman efficacy to the Republicans.
But like I said, I'm not saying there won't be antics over the next few weeks, I just think the week before the election would be a less effective time to try them. Although the "nothing to lose" argument is a fair one.
Of course, they'll still have their voter suppression schemes and who knows what other funny business at the ballot box . . .
Fran, your prognosis for Obama in the battleground states isn't consistent with current polling numbers. And I don't think Missouri can be called the bellwether this year, with states like Virginia and Colorado bucking that conventional wisdom and other battleground states leaning more democratic in both polling and voter ID.
And I don't think the Bradley Effect is going to drop Obama by six or seven points. See my post here:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/the-bradley-effect-under-the-b.php
September 29, 2008 2:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Take a look at www.fivethirtyeight.com...
September 29, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink