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Economic Data Needed

Well, I wonder if I could use this as a topic for an Industrial Organization field paper?  (I'm a grad student in Economics at the moment)

I'm very curious as to the composition of the foreclosure "market" - who are the people being foreclosed on?

From what I can tell, Democrats think it's "hardworking Americans" and Republicans think it's "minorities (i.e. Blacks)".

I'll use "foreclosure" below, but figure the same question should be asked of distressed properties in general.

I'd like to know:

1.  How much of the real estate that has entered foreclosure is investment property?

- I bet this is a pretty high percentage.  Who buys high hoping to sell higher with no money down?  And if you had a good track record before getting caught in the bust, you probably walk away from not one, but multiple properties.

2.  (related) How many of the foreclosed properties were not the sole house (or condo, or whatever) owned?

3.  How many of these properites were jumbo loans?  (let's use $417,000 as the benchmark, disregarding the 2008 stimulus deal that raised the ceiling.)

4.  What percentage are minority-owned, and how does that compare to home ownership in general?

- I'd guess that the minority-owned homes are going to be less likely, not more, to be in bankruptcy, but even if there's some correlation, having the data should still easily prove the fallacy of the "it's all the minorities' fault!" argument.

5.  What percentage of distressed houses are first-time homebuyers?

6.  What percentage are refinanced mortgages?

7.  What percentage are ARMs that have had their initial locked-in rate expire?

- I suspect this is a lot less of a problem than most assume (though clearly it can be an issue).  Mortgage rates remain pretty low, and the properties most likely to be in trouble are the ones purchased or refinanced within the past 5 years, when the market was peaking.

8.  How much of the bad debt relates to 2nd or 3rd (or higher) leins on a house, instead of the initial primary mortgage?  (related to the refi question above)

9.  How many of the loans are "conforming"?

- If conforming loans aren't an issue now, and the economy deteriorates, well, just wait.

10.  How many are FHA loans (if any)?

11.  How many have PMI?  And does this have any positive effect?  And, if not, can we abolish it?


Comments (1)

All simply excellent questions and ones that I hope will be answered, just as I hope this bailout will be more of a rolling response to the crisis that does not reward the bad actors in the crisis at the expense of the fiscally responsible.

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