I think this is an excellent analysis of Obama's overall strategy at this point, Chrono. It's not flashy and it's not visible, but I expect that it will pay huge dividends in the end. I imagine that he and the people leading his campaign due. It's a long-term strategy and I believe that it will work.

It's nice to read an optimistic post for a change. I've firmly believed the Obama campaign has a long-term strategy that will prevail in the end.

It's like the tortoise and the hare, and it is, indeed, gut-wrenchingly suspenseful as it plays out.

Nonetheless, Obama's meme is "overarching strategy." Many people have trouble with that concept. He's a macro thinker which is what our country needs right now. This attribute, along with his knowledge and talent of course, will likely win the election for him. Thanks, Chrono for the positive outlook.

CindyMax

Outstanding. And yes, I've been irritated (not with yours) with the piling on of negativity and cheap shots taken at Obama.

Positive begets positive. If I could, would send you 'sweetness and light' from Alaska.

Yours is always the voice of reason and based on facts as well as finely researched.

Strongly Rec'd. Greatly appreciated.

Thanks for the post. I haven't seen this said so well anywhere else. Rec'd and bookmarked.

Nathan,

Great post... have been following your comments for some time now and the fivethirtyeight website has been a favorite of mine. During the mid-point of the dem primary I used the site to convince my rep friends of the sheer genius of the Obama campaign. It's great to see your post follow that same logic. Bid Rec'd.

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I've been traveling and couldn't respond earlier, but yes. There is a lot going on in this election cycle that will not be obvious to the casual observer and the MSM zombies, not the least of which is Obama's real commitment to the whole country. That alone speaks volumes.

It's definitely going to be a long, arduous campaign season, and we haven't seen the end of the cesspool of idiocy from McCain and his surrogates, but - really - they have nothing at all to run on. Bush was able to pull out the fear card over and over again and managed to cheat his way to another stolen term, but this time it's not Bush, but a doddering old deceitful and pitiful man whose raw ambition just drives him to do anything to win. Bush never looked desperate. McCain already does.

Of course, it has to be a definitive win, because there's on doubt that the Republicans will do what they do best - try to fool, lie, distort, manipulate and cheat their way back into power.

This time, I don't think it will work.

No joke. Thanks for the insight, Chrono, and the deeper perspective.

I'm not so sure.
Obama's ground game is superior. His financing is excellent (I gave him another $500.00 today) but McCain's ads suggesting Obama is arrogant and self promoting are effective. They are especially effective at persuading middle and working class white males to vote Republican again despite their anger with GWB. Fox, ABC and CNN are giving McCain a free media boost. This is very powerful and the race is much closer than it should be.

I think Obama needs to go at least a little negative and focus on McCain's character. I hope you are right.

Qwerty,
Respectfully - this is not at all like Kerry in 2004. You are citing certain polls that suggest the McCain attacks ads are working. Other polls can be cited that shows Obama still has a commanding lead.
I also remember Kerry not responding to the swift boaters -Obama is responding and quickly to Britney et al . Most importantly Obama is building a ground game that dwarfs what Kerry did in 2004.
But Qwerty you are spot on about how we bests not take anything for granted . We will win - we just need to work hard , smart & yes keep the faith ..

ChronoSpark, Maritza

I truly and sincerely hope that Obama's organization beats McCain's mud slinging. If that is true than the Rove era might be on the eclipse. Democrats might finally have found a way to counter the Republican hate machine or maybe the Gore/Kerry losses will be explained by poor organizing. Either way, this would be a welcome development for all sorts of reasons.

Maritza, I agree that the debates will count for a lot. Obama is a better debater than McCain, but that only helps so much. Recall the last ABC news Democratic primary debate. Stephanopolous and Gibson tipped the tone ferociously.

Obama has always refused to go negative. It worked against HRC, but it might also have kept her in the race longer than necessary. I would favor at least doing an ad that directly counters the arrogance/messiah idea. Obama has humble roots. The world should know.

As always, thanks for really smart posts and comments. We shall see how this develops.

Ha Ha Ha...

actually... Grant County... Marion Indiana

Chrono, your post -- and NCSteve's immediately below it -- are a much-needed antidote to MJ Rosenberg's "sky-is-falling" routine.
By next month, Obama's ground-up organization will have kicked into operation, as will a skillful, well-funded national and state-by-state advertising campaign.
Not to mention an absolutely unprecedented voter registration and get-out-the-vote effort.
McCain and his partisan dead-enders won't know what hit them.
The only fly in the ointment will be seeing how discordant Hillary's "Look at me, Mommy" moment will be at the convention.
Aside from that, the juggernaut is in gear.

While I agree with your assessment of Obama's superior ground game, it's this paragraph's implicit complacency that scares me:

But the point is: who cares? McCain's strategy is for the short term: ad-onslaught. With it, his poll numbers take a slight boost. Things look worse than they actually are for Obama, and people start to hold doubts and fears about the future of the election, whereas before there was confidence and strength. Gotta hand it to McCain: it seems to have had an effect. But is it really that great? He still can't edge out Obama in the national polls.

When Kerry was swiftboated, all it took was 10 days of his dithering with taking the 'high road' for the whole story to take a life of its own, and that by the time he responded it was too late.

So you can't blame anyone at all for being afraid of the Obama camp's timidity. I like Elizabeth's input to the situation, and I hope it is as accurate this time around, that Obama will come roaring back. But to allow McCain's smear tactics to drive the campaign narrative without a forceful response and ad buy to match fills me with a certain cynical resignation of what's 'in the cards'. Of my two best friends, one has moved to another country, with the other preparing to based on the outcome of Nov 2nd. The country I have my sights on has a lot of red tape, so I've started the process early, if push comes to shove.

Thanks to all of the above for an interesting and thoughtful discussion of this topic. I will be spending more time on TPM because this level of interest and insight is exciting!

Your post caught my attention. I don't have time right now to read through all the comments, but I'll give you mine.

You bring up great points about the importance of Obama's ground game. It is PART of the whole package to win. I don't think McCain is completely oblivious to this, though the polls show there is less enthusiasm for him (which is very important).

I would argue that polls do matter. At any point in an election, they reflect the current feeling in the electorate about a candidate. This is why campaigns do internals to get a take on where the electorate is at that moment (or is trending) and to respond by shaping the narrative.

I would also argue that as of the end of June (latest numbers) McCain combined with the RNC had slightly MORE money than Obama and the DNC. I think McCain/RNC and Obama/DNC is the more accurate way to compare numbers. That's what the Obama camp is doing in their emails. Doing that, we are about equal.

Enough about the facts since those seem to play less of a role in winning elections because of the way we're built. If it was about things like issues (facts), the Democrats would win most elections. But we know they don't. They've won only 2 of the last 7 presidential elections.

Things like blogging are heavily left brain/rational. McCain and Steve Schmidt (of Bush alum) are trying to make people FEEL that Obama is the unsafe and risky choice (to feel safe is a core human need). This also helps shore the base by trying to create some enthusiasm with them to not let this scary Obama guy win (FEELING). They know people need to FEEL good and safe about their choice (especially "Undecided/Independents). They are working on the subconscious where elections are won. In '92 when Clinton won, he made people FEEL that he felt their pain. It then FELT ok to take that chance on him.

Being inspirational as Obama is (feeling is a part of his support...see!) is not mutually exclusive from being tough (makes people FEEL safe) and making people FEEL he cares about them.

FEELINGS (subconscious) are a major part of how we make important choices especially regarding people whether it's picking our next president or the people in our own life (look at your own life for examples). It's interesting that many Dems can teach stuff like this in academia, but when it comes to putting it into practice in elections they're either not making that connection or are slowly catching on. Republicans have been better at it: you won't hear them saying Obama's dull (feeling), but they're hitting on safety/scary (feeling).

We ignore how the human condition weighs into voting at our own peril (see winning 2 of the last 7 elections). If the candidate can make the voter FEEL he's the right choice to handle all the FACTS (issues), he's in. It's that simple.

See The Political Brain by Drew Westen or any books about "The Emotional Brain" on Amazon.

I don't think the Republicans are "oblivious", they're just less enthused (feeling). How will the Democrats capitalize on that and make voters FEEL that they are the right choice? Will they make them FEEL safe (by being tough), cared for (empathy), that they like them (by not feeling they're arrogant) and inspired (Obama's got this)? The candidate bears more than half the responsibility in how we feel about him.

We'll see how we FEEL in the next few weeks.