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Why are Obama and McCain so close nationally
I am posting (for the first time) to find out why Obama isn't farther ahead of McCain in the national polls. Nearly everyone I talk to, even McCain voters, admit that Obama is a better candidate. His ideas are more sensible, his oratory is miles ahead, his strategy is stronger and his organization has no peer. So why is it so close. The popular answer is that a sizeable fraction of voters will not support him because he is black and that keeps the race close. I'm not so sure.
I think Obama's problem is that he is too cold.
He is a poster child for American yuppie success. Double Ivy educated, president of the Harvard Law Review, became a community organizer instead of souless corporate lawyer, ran for office in Illinois, impressed everyone and became a U.S. senator only to aim higher. He beat the unbeatable Clinton machine and now has been out-fundraising, out-speech-giving, out-policy making and out-promoting his far more experienced oponent.
More than that he is ferociously disciplined. He works out everyday, has (and actually seems to love) a thin, pretty professional wife and two healthy daughters. He has a little money from two books he wrote himself. Nobody left him anythng in a will and he married into no money at all.
He eats healthy and is polite to people even when they are impolite to him. Other than youthful drug use, he seems to have no vices. On top of that, the fact that he was abandoned by his black father at age 2 and raised by his white mother and grandparents seems to have no effect on his self confidence and ego. It's intact and supported by a winning smile.
And this, I think, is his problem.
Many, many people admire him, but I wonder how many actually like him or feel that he is human like they are. I think that to the bulk of us with our 20 extra pouds, dull jobs, occasional Big Mac, inconsistent gym attendence, career disappointments and mediocre marriges, Obama just doesn't seem like a guy we can understand. We wonder if he ever fights with Michelle or gets really mad and throws something.
I think that when most people sift through the choices for President, they don't think too much about policy. I think they settle on the guy who seems most like themselves and go with him. I wonder if Obama should show a few flaws or admit a few missteps. It might warm him up a bit.
Comments (11)
He's a smoker. And actually polls show that people like Obama better, by a wide margin actually.
As to why it's so close - because the country is pretty split evenly down GOP and Dem lines. Generic GOP Candidate will get 45% of the vote and Generic Dem will get 45% of the vote. It's the 10% that's up for grabs. And you can't really seperate out and poll that 10%.
I think people want to vote for Obama, but they don't know him or can trust him. And if people go into the voting both still nervous it will be easy to vote McCain and then rationalize it saying he's the safer bet/known entity.
I think Wright really stung Obama and made his job a lot harder, and to be sure we haven't heard the last of him yet this election cycle.
And I hate going back to this point, but tall of this is precisely why I think Obama needs to choose a known national entity as his running mate.
August 7, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, yes, and yes -- to Jonze. (Though I'd say 44% and 46%, but who's counting?)
Matt Yglesias had a really good argument to this effect on bloggingheads.
It's possible that the days of landslide pres. elections are over. The last two were very close; the ones in the nineties were close as well -- and would have been closer without Perot. The landslides in the eighties happened largely because we were losing the South -- a major geographical shift. Nothing like that is happening now.
Also, let me agree with Orlando downthread. Obama may seem many things -- but he doesn't seem cold.
Not to rag on your first post, eamseneca. It's written well, even though I disagree! ;-)
August 7, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Edward, please forgive me for what I'm about to tell you.
I believe you may be out of your mind.
Have you caught that smile? Have you listened to him speak to people at a town hall meeting? He's the warmest politician since Bill Clinton. And what's more, he feels more geniune.
As for the being smart, keeping in shape and loving his family, if you think that's going to keep people from voting for him, see above.
The national polls are close for one of two reasons: 1) they really are close; or 2) pollsters are way off the mark because they are asking the wrong questions of the wrong sample or their projections of election demographics are off.
Either way, I'm not too worried. When Obama speaks, he sounds presidential (and empathetic).When McCain speaks, he sounds petulant. We've had eight years of petulant. The votes are gonna break for change.
August 7, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Jonze is closer to being accurate on this than you are Edward...I for one want a President that is waaaaaay more together than I am. I don't want to pound shots w/ him, I want him to be lots smarter than I am, much more diplomatic, more articulate and much less emotional. I want him to have a great home life so he isn't worrying about whether his wife is cheating on him instead of paying attention to the nation's problems. I want him to be exceptionally confident, but open to listening to a lot of different points of view before making a decision. I want him to charm the pants off of foreign leaders, not insult them w/ tasteless jokes. I don't want him to be going off on rants. I certainly don't want him throwing things. I want him to be deliberate, thoughtful, calm, highly educated....hmmmm all this sounds like Barack Obama...and you know what? I even like him.
August 7, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto to all that. This is a really likeable, centered, humble guy. It is astounding that he gets accused of being elitist.People hear what they want to hear. Everytime I get worried, I hear Obama speak, and I stop worrying. You cannot hear too much of this guy. Compared to Bush, Cheney, and McCain he makes more sense than I can believe, and he's the real deal. Yeah, there are some clever white males who are threatened by him, and feel they have to take him down a few notches or quibble with his words. Let them. In the end, they'll vote for him.
August 7, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We all have to remember that Bush's approval rating didn't drop below 40%, where McCain is stalled at, until early 2006.
If someone in 2006 thought Bush was doing a heck of a job, they would lean to McCain, or any conservative candidate.
Just looking quickly at Pollster in December 2007, 33% were still approving the job Bush was doing. These people will never vote for Obama, Clinton, Biden, or any other Democrat.
August 7, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the media may be part of the problem.
Now that Hillary is out of the picture, the media needed a punching bag. Someone to hate. And that person is, of course, Barack Obama.
Bad coverage may be preventing him from having the margin he should have had in the absence a mainstream media: Huge.
August 7, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its very interesting, how the co-called "liberal" media does this to Democratic presidential candidates. They MSM seem to take every opporunity to help manufacture and then apply ridicule. Gore, Kerry, and now, Obama. How much like ridicule did we see applied to Bush in 2000 or 2004, or, so far, to McCain in 2008?
August 8, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's black.
That's why Obama and McCain are so close nationally. Had Obama been a white southerner, McCain would hardly show up on the political radar.
August 7, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you. I want the leader of the Free World to have it together mentally, physically, emotionally and psychologically. Which is one reason why I did not vote for Bush (he is an idiot) and why I will NOT be voting for McCain (he is a head case).
However, many people feel that they need to cut their leaders down to size. They are indeed BITTER about their miserable existence and instead of choosing someone who inspires them to move beyond, they would rather choose someone who commiserates in their misery.
August 8, 2008 6:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you've made a very good point. There are a lot of bitter people who resent being where they are, yet will never admit it. They don't want someone who has pushed to succeed making them feel worse about themselves. For some, Bush makes you feel better about yourself because he's such a worthless ass. For me, Obama inspires. I want a leader who inspires us to do better instead of encouraging our worst.
August 8, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
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