Just like clockwork. Every four years.  August rolls around, the pollsters likely voter models temporarily go to shit because only the old people are paying attention, things tighten up a bit and, just like clockwork, half the members of the damn party loses bladder control or start acting like sullen teenagers.  

Cue the panic stricken handwringing drama queens.  Bring on the oh so sad doomsaying sages of "I told you so" who supported another candidate in the primaries.  Cue the angry young men with the angry recrimination born of their two elections worth of experience as political beings.  Oh, and bring conspiracy theorists up out of cryo-storage. 

Oh, and throw in a couple of Republicans pretending to be us seeking to spread fear and doubt. 

I have seen it in every election since 1976, regardless of whether we won them or lost them.  Dukakis was buried by it, Bill Clinton weathered it twice.  The wave of dispair and disorder when things got a little tough was fatal to Kerry in 2004.  I vividly remember (but cannot seem to find) a verbal smacking around that Michael Moore tried to give the handwringers at HuffPo in '04 in which he called Democrats out for their perpetual crying, whining, angst-fests. 

And.  We.  Never.  Learn. 

It's always the candidate's fault.  He didn't do this, he didn't do that, he didn't do that other thing.  Its never us.  Noooooo.  The pissing and moaning and crying and dejection of ten million Democrats who are peeing  their pants because their candidate isn't winning by enough for their piece of mind has no effect whatsoever on their undecided neighbors and co-workers and family members. 
Nope.  It's all the candidate's fault. 

Look, I'm past trying to counsel you weak-kneed smelling-salt sniffing Aunt Gerdies through the bad times.  I get that many of you have been traumatized and hurt and suffer terrible PTSD flashbacks whenever the Big Bad Omnipotent Republicans start running their shit, and frankly, I'm done trying to talk you through it. 

Republicans don't win because they're better, or smarter, or meaner, or because all the other voters are dumber than us Democrats. 

Republicans win because they get enough of us quaking in our birkenstocks to give off the stench of defeat to the undecideds.  All of you know undecideds.  Many of you know weak Republican leaners.  How do you think talking and acting like you think your party is a bunch of losers affects them?  "Wow, they're a bunch of weak-kneed whiney losers who lack confidence in their candidate!  That's totally the party I want  to get on board with!" 

And for the last eight years, they've won precisely because, no matter how mind-searingly stupid, how personally corrupt, how downright loathesome their candidate and his campaign were, they acted like they thought his his farts were perfume and his worst banalities were pearls of wisdom for the ages.  No matter how bad the polls look, they show up and vote and they don't piss and moan about it where their enemies can overhear them and take comfort and gain courage.     Or, at least, not unless they're in Congress and off the record. 

So yeah, Obama's off the high point he hit after Hillary pulled out, after months and months of coverage of only our race, months when McCain was just a voice mumbling an occaisional line from off stage while he waited for our act to end.  Well, duh, of course he is!  McCain has recovered some of what he lost during the time when he didn't know who he was running against now that he's actually in the race?  Well, duh!  Whodathunkit?  The MSM grades McGoo on a curve and  comes down hard on the guy who was starting to run away with it?  Damn, unprecedented!  Who knew that would happen? 

None of you guys puporting to give the campaign advice, apparently. 

I'm past trying to reason you out of your funk by drawing your attention to the fact that if you <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php"> really look at the data,</a> its clear that McCain has a ceiling and Obama has a floor.  I'm tired of trying to cheer you up by pointing out that the persistant pattern since Hillary lost has been that McCain hits his ceiling and bounces down and Obama hits his floor and bounces up and, so far, that hasn't changed.   

Instead, I'm going to posit the most horrible possibility of all and ask you a question.  

It is entirely possible that, after the Republican convention, McCain could actually overtake Obama in a poll, perhaps several.  Maybe it'll be one of the Republican pollsters who have a few points of bias built into their models--Rasmussen or Fox/Opinion Dynamics  or the truly egregious Insider Advantage.  Maybe it'll be one of the supposedly reputable polls that lights off a spectacular outlier.  Post=convention bounce, variance from the mean, hell, possibly even a real spike.  In September, it is not outside the realm of possibility that McCain could be on top and the din from the MSM will be enormous, worse, even than when he manages to come within the margin of error for a day or two. 

So here's my question: if that terrible, thus far unprecedented, thing happens, when that happens, what are you going to do? 

Yes, you.  You people out there, right now, cracking out the smelling salts because you only had the heart for a blowout.  Are you going to go around rending your garments and throwing ashes in the air, crying the cry of doom and defeatism to everyone you know?  Are you going to say "I'd rather be thought cool and prescient in predicting doom than risk looking foolish by continuing to support a winner?"

Well before you go there, let me suggest an alternative approach to try out that dire event (with apologies to whoever wrote the original): "act as if ye had a pair, and a pair shall be given unto thee."  Seriously, it works.  That's what courage really is. "Bravery" is not feeling fear.  Some people have it, most don't.  It's kind of a mutation.  "Courage" is <i>acting</i> unafraid even when you're scared to death.  We prize bravery, but we honor courage. 
So for Christ's sake, even when you think things look irredeemably awful, shake it off, keep your head, act as if you were confident in our ultimate and inevitable victory and cover your mouth when you do the fear cough because the shit's contagious as hell.

And when things look darkest, remember one simple truth of live that is guarenteed to help you keep some perspective on events that have yet to unfold:

IF YOU REALLY COULD PREDICT THE FUTURE, YOU'D FUCKING BE RICH, NOW, WOULDN'T YOU?