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What about cell phones?
Here's a point that has been mentioned numerous times throughout this campaign: many of Obama's strongest supporters, and those who came out in droves to support him are younger people. And many of those younger people own cells phones. Many of those younger people also do not have land lines.
This is a very key point. Polling is done (for the most part) through land line phones. The entire demographic of people who do not have a land line are being extremely undercut in polling done. Nationally, this is not a huge deal, but in the state-by-state polling done, it is a huge one.
This was brought back to my attention when I was listening to NPR's All Things Considered today. They brought on Brian Melendez, Chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, Minnesota's chapter of the Democratic Party.
On it, he stressed that, though there we see a tightening race in Minnesota, the polls being released are significantly undercutting a huge portion of Obama's base: those young voters who rely on cell phones, text messaging and emails for communication, and don't own land lines.
It's not a long, drawn-out point like many of the ones I post here. But it's something to think about for those worrying about tightening poll numbers, especially on the state level (I personally think national polls are completely useless - we don't practice direct elections, so national polling is a sham).
There's a tightening race, it's true. But like Melendez said, "We all expected it" -- those who didn't were kidding themselves long ago. But those who are truly afraid and getting down and out, or outright depressed, I ask that you think from all angles and put things in perspective before giving up. It ain't over 'til it's over.
And if that doesn't help to allay your worries, then this might.
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Yes, it was meant for a laugh. =)
Comments (13)
I read somewhere that you add two percentage points to Obama if the poll doesn't take into account cell phone usage.
However there is still an elephant in the room and it's name is Rev. Wright. I think when this issue is finally played it will cost Obama 3-4% points.
August 20, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting about the 2%.
I don't agree that Wright will cost Obama 3-4%, and I've seen nothing to suggest that it will. By that estimation Obama will have a hard time winning practically any swing state.
I'm not suggesting that Wright won't have an effect, but 3-4%? A little high, I think.
August 20, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then there is Hagee, and the draft ( McWar has already agreed to reinstate the draft) , and the wars, so how much would that cost to McBushsame or McWar???
August 20, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hagee and Parsley can only work if Obama plays it right. They are not the same as Wright because McCain didn't sit in their churches for 20 years. Where Obama needs to "use" Hagee and Parsley is to somehow make McCain's attacks on Wright akin to attacking Parsley and Hagee. Make note of McCain cherry picking quotes out of context to demonize Wright and Obama, and how you could do the same with Parsley, Hagee etc.
Also he needs to show McCain used religion for purely political reasons. He condemned Hagee and Parsley years earlier, but when he politically needed them he reached out for an endorsement, however when the stuff hit the fan with them, he quickly dropped them.
August 20, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is that, whereas McCain's core older voters turn out reliably, the youth vote can't be counted on to walk the talk.
August 20, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which is why Obama has to peak at the right time - early November. He needs to get the youth vote impassioned and out to vote.
Also why the ground game is so important.
August 20, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not only young people who no longer have land lines. I am a retired person who, for reasons of convenience and economy, has only a cell phone. Also, the vast majority of my friends and relations do not have land lines either. Some have Skype or Vonage phones but most have cell phones only.
August 20, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on! I'm almost 60 and I rely completely on my cell phone and using VOIP (Skype) to make outgoing calls. So I would certainly be completely invisible to the pollsters and I am a HUGE Obama/Democrat supporter.
August 20, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And do you think looking for Hagee endorsement showed good judgement? I don't think so.
And the tell the youth that McWas is reinstating the draft or will once he is president, then I can assure Wright will no longer be an issue...
McWar is a dangerous schizophrenic who is not fitted to be president pure and simple.
August 20, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish you were right, but you are reminding me of my first vote back in 1972. I knew the polls were wrong because all my friends and fellow students were going to vote like me and they did. We elected George McGovern President of Johnson County. Nixon won the other 98 counties.
I have no doubt you will elect Obama President of Hennepin County.
August 20, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reliable as always with your constant inability to see anything but negativity in relation to Obama. Thank you, bluebell. As usual, you heighten the conversation above the rest. =)
August 20, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Robert Arena:
`Now some have raised the question of whether mobile-phone only households - generally younger and possibly new voters - are being missed by the polls. Sorry to burst the bubble folks, but the good polling firms have already addressed this question and resolved it. Polling panels are now comprised of phone interviews (including mobile phones) as well as online polling. The Pew poll specifically addresses this issue on page 11 of this PDF file - page 10 of the report. A well executed registered voter poll at this point in the race is a relevant barometer of where the country is today.`
http://www.americablog.com/2008/08/why-people-should-be-worried-about.html
August 20, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Nathan,
Point taken. Good idea then to get access to them via text message.
I came up with a ground game to take action with all of the young people I am connected with. My 22 yr old daughter and I go dancing together and there are many places where she is well known in various 21-30 crowds. We are looking into passing out Obama buttons attached to a business card size note on how to register and to verify registration/voting location. I thought of maybe having a message that said 'the nation believes that you won't vote, we dare you to prove them wrong'.
August 21, 2008 3:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
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