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Well, who started it?
Josh asks whether it should be our policy to restrict Russia's sphere of influence.
But whether it is or isn't, this incident was a failure of US policy.
It was , after all, Georgia which took the first step.
The US media and at least the neo cons characterize the Russian action as an example of its policy of expanding it sphere of influence.And in particular of discouraging democracy among its neighbors..
Perhaps.
But in plain words who did what to whom? Georgian troops crossed into Ossettia, bombed some buildings, killed some Ossettians (if that's how they are described) and -the Russian claim-some of the Russian "peace keepers". Any dispute about that ?
Robert Kagan for example sees this as a turning point in history , like Munich in 38. Unless we do something dramatic he expects Russia to continue invading or at least intimidating its democratic neighbors.
Like Prague in 68 ,he thinks, altho in this case he approves of sending tanks over the border . At least the first set of tanks..
Well yes. Putin has certainly intimidated any of its neighbors -democratic or not- who decide to violate a truce and invade a majority ethnic Russian locality creating substantial casualties.
.One way those neighbors can avoid Russian intimidation is to ensure that if they enter into a truce with an ethnic Russian population, they keep it, and don't send in their tanks..That doesn't actually seem like a terrible restriction on their sovereignty.
If it's our policy to restrict Russia's sphere , then the corresponding tactic was to avoid giving a pretext to expand it. We failed..Who was our representative to Shali? April Glaspie?
If it's not then we've singularly failed to make that clear with such an "unbalanced" ( as John Bolton might say ) condemnation of only one of the two erring parties as to suggest that's our hidden agenda.
Let's face if guys. We knew Shali intended this. We hoped he'd sneak this fast ball past Putin.Now we're involved in operation CYA: pious declarations about humanitarian assistance and port calls from our Black Sea fleet.
Comments (4)
If the Georgian dude admits he got encouraged by McCain's pal, or even Dubya; do you think the MSM will carry it?
August 14, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
No
August 14, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't be so sure that Georgia "started this". Russia has been undermining Georgian autonomy since at least 1800. using the same tactics - covert support to ethnic groups within Georgia while claiming Georgian aggression. Ossetia would not exist as a separatist enclave if the Soviets hadn't given it to them as a reward for aiding and abetting the Bolsheviks in the Russian revolution.
Since April, Russian fighters have constantly made incursions into Georgian airspace, they've supported Ossetian and Abkhasian separatists monetarily and militarily and encouraging Ossetian black marketing and sabotage of Georgian markets by controlling the flow of exports from Georgia.
So who is the real aggressor here?
August 14, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say , Georgia. Their tanks crossed the border.
As for all the rest, I don't know. In yesterday's FT Anatol Lieven described Shaaskavili in unflattering terms. Election fraud, etc.My dim memory is that I've disagreed with his recommendatioms on other matters but I trust his factual descriptions.
There are several facts here which point in various directions.
Putin is a nasty piece of work. What you see is what you get and there's no need to look into his soul.
The Ossetians don't want to be part of Georgia.
Geogia doesn't want to be part of Russia.
Neither territorial integrity not self determination are so obviously "right" that it's end of story.
In that part of the world, as in most parts of the world , ethnic identity trumps other forms of association. I'm found of saying that when I lived in Brussels white , socialist, catholic ,flammand farmers rioted and killed white socialist catholic,walloon farmers.
At least they didn't fight about which end of the boiled egg they should tap with their spoons.
Since nobody gets along with anybody I oppose tanks crossing borders.Whatever the reason.
August 15, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
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