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The Electoral Map

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I am not in full-blown panic like more and more Obama supporters.  The last few weeks, though, have been less than stellar for Obama; there is no denying it.  His campaign feels like its on cruise control since the primaries, with the only glowing press being the Afghanistan-Iraq leg of his overseas trip.  And the timing (unintentionally) of his vacation couldn't have been any worse.

We've seen the result of the last few weeks emerge in the polls, as Obama is either losing ground against McCain, or treading water at best.  Of most concern to me is the influx of swing state polling in the last week or two.  A quick recap:

Colorado:  McCain, +1, McCain +3
Georgia:  McCain +7
Indiana:  McCain +6
Michigan:  Obama +4
Minnesota:  Obama +4
Missouri:  McCain +7, McCain +10
North Carolina:  McCain +4 McCain +6, McCain +6
Ohio:  McCain +5
Pennsylvania:  Obama +5, Obama +5

(Most of these polls are from Rasmussen, with a few from Quinnipiac, Survey USA, etc.)

That is certainly not all bad news for Obama.  He is holding steady in Michigan and Pennsylvania despite being outspent.  Frustrating for me, though, is the complete lack of progress in traditional red states, such as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.  Only in Missouri is McCain outspending Obama.  In the other states, Obama is stomping McCain in organizing and/or advertising.  (I know we won't see organizing effects until election day)  But like I said, there is little to show for it.

I admit that I know little about political campaigns compared to some of you here, but I have to ask:  is it time for the Obama campaign to pare down the states its targetting?  I know this will occur eventually as we get closer to November, but the sonner the better it seems.

Let's take Georgia for example.  Obama is advertising in the state and has opened 17 campaign offices.  McCain by comparison has zero with little to no advertising in the state (I think).  I knew when the Obama camp planned on contesting Georgia that McCain might call his bluff and let him spend away.  I have to think the McCain knew that if they were losing in Georgia they were going to be in serious trouble and decided to gamble somewhat by not matching Obama's resources. 

It's worth asking:  is there any scenario in which Obama loses a state like North Carolina or Virginia but wins in Georgia?

Just my two cents.


Comments (4)

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You forgot to mention Obama ahead in Iowa by +5

Also, if you look at the Indiana cross tabs: you will notice that it gives 20% of the black vote to McBushSame. Same for Florida.

If you look at North Carolina: you will notice that Obama gets only 70% of the democrates votes.

So most of this poll mean that they are not accurate!

Just some perspective, and no reason to panic.

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That will explain a few percentage points in some states, but not all - certainly not Indiana.

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well, my point is that I don't think the polls can not be trusted. when mcbushsame gets 20% of the black voters, it is really fishy...

I admit that I know little about political campaigns

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