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The Bounce and Reality
Was just checking out the 3-day gallup poll for today, which has Obama up by +2 and McCain stuck at 44%. This is the last of their polls that will not include Biden announcement. So it will be interesting to see if Obama starts to get any bounce from Biden, although it will be mixed with the convention which starts Monday.
What caught my eye was the their data on the bounce that conventions get. The average bounce is 5%, but last election Kerry got a -1% bounce and Bush only got a 2% bounce. I didn't know that Kerry actually lost traction as result of the convention,. Gallup predict a less than average bounce this year as well.
Because of the Democratic primary being so long and contentious, most people from both parties have already made up their minds, as opposed to the days past with no world wide web, 24 hour news cycles, etc and the conventions were people's first take on each of the candidates.
With the Gallup poll showing consistently nearly half of the undecideds volunteering a "neither" response, I would expect that the Obama/Biden will get a 3-4% bounce, and McCain, getting branded with the Republican brand a 1% bounce at best.
I just think it's important that the meme about the realistic bounce from the Dem Convention gets out there in the media. It's not a game-breaker, but if Obama has +5% or +6% lead after the convention than he has been successful (and this would mean that he is getting 49% to 50% as compared to McCain's 44%).
Comments (2)
But the McCain campaign said Obama will get a 15-point convention bounce! Anything less than that and Obama has failed miserably.
August 23, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watching the MSM, they say it the Repubs trying to set expectation but they do nothing about setting realistic expectations. And I see pro-Obama people on message boards throwing out 8 and 10% bounces.
August 23, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
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