Reader Posts

« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »

See What Happens When You Panic?

Go and look at the official campaign picture of Barack and Joe Biden at the top of their web page.  Here's my no-so official caption for that picture: "Sarah Palin?  Seriously?"

We had our initial reaction.  We reacted to her looks.  We reacted to our reaction to our looks.  We reacted to the reaction to the reaction to her looks.  We reacted to the scandals.  We reacted to the rumors and reacted to the reaction to those.  Some have moved on to a new level where it is okay to talk about her looks because she so clearly trades on them herself and some responded that it is nonetheless wrong for us to do so.  We dug into her history and her fitness.  We laughed.  We castigated ourselves for laughing.  We rightly enjoined outselves not to set expectations so low that she can easily meet them. 

Typical Democrats. We are overanalyzing.  Afraid, as always, that the Republicans are so much more diabolically clever than we are, and that there's some hidden trap, we are missing the point.  It's right there in front of us, plain as the noses on our faces and we're reluctant to fully embrace the obvious.  

This was a catastrophic mistake for McPow. He tossed his best and only real argument against Obama, the only one with a chance of working, over the side. Now, all he's got left is the lies (one of which he replayed in a commercial as I typed this--"hey poor people, Obama will raise your taxes and the Wall Street Journal Op-Ed team says it will lead to an economic disaster!!!!" ) 

Further, besides tossing the experience argument over the side, this ridiculous decision casts a gazillion candle power spotlight on our best (and most urgent) argument against McPow: that he's impulsive to the point of being crazed, dangerously injudicious, a reckless gambler whose delight is craps--a fool's game, like all casino games other than poker, rigged in favor of the house.  The tire-swingers have thus far managed to  avoid discussing McPow's dangerous recklessness, but it is going to be somewhat harder to ignore now.  Further, this choice casts an even starker light on McPow's age and the likelihood he could die or become incapicated and leave her holding the football--the one with the nuclear launch codes in it, another heretofore taboo topic among the tire-swingers.  Finally, this decision creates an opportunity for our side to show, not tell,  show, why "qualified" is not synonymous with "experienced." 

See?  This is why I keep telling everyone not to panic everytime the polls fluctuate within the MOE.  

Sarah Palin's selection as McPow's vice-presidential candidate is clearly a panic-driven decision.  Either McPow watched our convention and made a panic-stricken instant gut call that he had to do something really extreme, or else he reviewed the results of their post-convention polling and focus grouping and made a panic-stricken instant gut call that he had to do something really extreme

And here's the problem with that.  Our panic response evolved over hundreds of thousands of years during which we and our ancestors' species were not at, and often not even near, the top of the food chain.  As a result, a panic attack is really only capable of generating correct decisions  in response to a very limited set of circumstances.  If one of the large carnivores with whom we co-evolved on the African savannah is closing fast or actually on top of you and chomping down on some important body part, there is at least a chance that panic will generate a correct solution to the problem, assuming one exists. 

Other than that one limited set of circumstances, panic will almost always result in suboptimal solutions. 

We have not seen the last trying time for our side in this campaign.  It's not impossible that Pretend President McPow could boost his numbers by going to the Gustav stricken areas this week and posing for some really keen photo ops that get Mark Halperin rolling over and exposing his belly to the dominant male again.  If she acts spunky and plucky enough, Palin could end up becoming some kind of a media darling for a week or two.  Jerimiah Wright is out of his cave again and he has full time coverage, just aching for a four word phrase that can be pulled out of context. 

McPow could, in fact, pulll ahead in the Gallup Daily or some other poll.  When that happens, the panic reflex will start to kick in--I know, it happens to me too.  But next time it happens to you, next time something bad has happened and you're trying fight the urge to jump onto TPM Cafe and fire off some panic-stricken advice to the campaign, I suggest you jsut say two little words to yourself:  "Sarah Palin."  Panic leads to Sarah Palin quality decisions. 

I, for one, thank Senator McPow for this important object lesson on the importance of succumbing to panic in your decision-making process.  I hope all of you do as well. 


Comments (91)

Lucky for us Obama has gathered the DNC around himself and his campaign which has so far not done panic responses. We might on the blogs but Obama and his staff have not. So yeah i agree we all need to take a deep breath and think things through and not pull a McCain.

avatar

Forget the strategic planning. Forget the background searches, Forget putting her down for being inexperienced. People are going to vote for Governor Palin because they see themselves in the Governor. She is a working woman, a mother to 5 kids, a wife, a business owner, a hunter, fisherman, ex cheerleader or basketball player, she can shoot a gun and seems like a REAL person. In the American world (our world) there is no City Park, Broadway, Taxi Cab or uppity eating establishments. We have diners, high school football, the great outdoors and we call it America. We cheer for our teams to win and don't pull our stars off the field when we are winning. When we lose, we lose with grace. We come together for a prayers on Sunday and wave at our neighbors. You don't know us but you think you know everything. You can continue to be as smart as you think you are and we will vote like we always do. We don't like those that just talk it. That's why we also walk it. See you at the polls.

Damn, that's hysterical. And not in the funny sense of the word.

Most of us do all those things. I don't live in good hunting ground, so don't get around to it, but I'd gladly join you for a target shooting contest, with open sights or scope, pistol or rifle.

You think you have some kind of monopoly on normal life? I participate in small business, collective bargaining, child-rearing, and trying to line up college loans for the kids. What does Palin have that I don't, besides youth and good looks? Oh that's right, she lives in a nanny-state that pays everyone unearned income from a state-owned business. Guess those folks are content with the freedom to keep 4 ounces of reefer at home (nice!)

She's not so special, just bouncy and lacking decent competition. Middling fish in a small pond. Let her try and make it in New York.

Awesome comment. I think "OldSarg" and "TheCleverBulldog" are the same person.

Why did you bother to write all those vacuous words? Just asking. You have way too much time on your hands. Maybe you should try a different form of fiction.

avatar

Damn, do you just copy this in every thread on every blog you can find?

Their trolling is really going downhill.

Meanwhile, "Deep in the Heart of Texas" I've seen *two*, yes thats right folks, TWO McCain bumberstickers. No yard signs...

deuce, snake eyes

avatar

I live 20 minutes north of Portland. I saw a McCain sticker last week. It was like a Sasquatch siting. I briefly considered calling KGW news...

avatar

damn I wish we could edit our posts. Was supposed to say "sighting."

avatar

I live in North Denver.
I haven't seen a single McCain anything here.
No bumper stickers, no yard signs, not anything. Obama is The Man in this hood.

I guess it's true what they say about self-segregation, because if public displays of affection are any indication of voting trends, then we could wrap this up with a voice vote.

Saw my first and only McCain bumper sticker in Los Angeles two weeks ago. Judging from the phone-ins to KPCC (covering the Republican convention) this morning, I don't think there'll be too many more ...

Saw my first and only McCain bumper sticker in Los Angeles two weeks ago. Judging from the phone-ins to KPCC (covering the Republican convention) this morning, I don't think there'll be too many more ...

avatar

If I see myself in her, it's the biggest reason NOT to vote for her. Are you kidding? I am a lawyer and a mother of three. I have a better education than she, and have been paying closer attention to Iraq than she. The thought of me being VP (with an 18 month old son) is laughable. NCSteve is right.

avatar

So, what your saying, oldsarg, is she's someone with whom real Americans would like to change diapers. Great! Give her her own afternoon cable show, crown her Mrs. Real America, put her on the cover of Redbook, (hell, giver her her own magazine. she could be the hockey mom Oprah), but keep her away from a job that she's not, by any reasonable estimation, qualified to hold.

Nice comment, OldSarg. Sorta like John Cougar Mellencamp, but completely drenched in sugary sap.

Listen, OldSarg: anyone who votes for Sarah Palin is an idiot. She's not running for president--John McCain is. Sarah Palin is John McCain's running mate. Remember John McCain? The hot-headed old man who wears 500 dollar shoes, flies around the country in his heiress wife's 12 million dollar private jet and can't remember how many houses he owns? Yeah, that John McCain. If you don't like those who only talk it, you're gonna hate John McCain.

John McCain knows nothing about the world you live in, and he doesn't care. And by the time the press gets done with Sarah Palin, her story is gonna sound like just more Republican bullshit.

John McCain said yesterday that now was the time for Republicans to put America first and the Republican Party second. Wouldn't it be nice if Republicans did that ALL the time?

avatar

OldSarge, you've had your helmet on too tight, for too long, and have taken too many shots to the head.

And, just passing on the best comment I've seen about the Palin:

"We are in a war in Iraq, Islamic fundamentalists are determined to destroy us, Iran is rushing to build a nuclear weapon, Russia is once again becoming a tyrannical regime threatening it's neighbors, our economy is tanking, and John McCain, a seventy-two-year-old man who has had four cancer operations choses as his running mate and the person who will be a heartbeat away from the Presidency a woman with zero experience in foreign relations and who was elected governor of Alaska by winning the votes of 130,000 people, about fifty thousand more than attended Obama's acceptance speech at Invesco field. The American people should be horrified and deeply frightened.

If this choice was a snide attempt to lure the Hillary Clinton supporters over to McCain, it will backfire, as Ms. Palin's positions on choice, universal healthcare, and the minimum wage are the complete antithesis of what Hillary Clinton has cared deeply about her entire life. If this was an attempt to get the evangelicals on McCain's side that will work somewhat as most were not going to vote for an African American Democrat anyway.

The pro-life movement in America has hijacked the Republican party and has caused it to lose the presidency, numerous governorships, and several senatorial races. Their single issue monopoly over the choice of who gets to run under the Republican banner is that of no choice whatsoever. You can be the most inexperienced candidate for vice president since Dan Quayle at a time our nation needs experience more than any time in our history since the second world war, but according to the Republicans, as long as you are pro-life on issues life, then terrorism,
the economy, healthcare, the environment, and the war in Iraq all come a distant second.

The left wing feminists in the Democratic party who are whining about the fact that Barack Obama fairly, legitimately, and in every way possible defeated Hillary Clinton in caucuses and primaries nationwide and earned the nomination, and are threatening to vote for McCain to show their displeasure, are people who do not care one iota about the issues Hillary Clinton devoted her life to, issues that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in agreement with almost one hundred percent. Any Clinton supporter who votes for McCain clearly cared more about Ms. Clinton's celebrity status and persona than about anything Ms. Clinton fought for all her life.

I hope that the American people will not allow a person to become Vice President at this most dangerous time in our history who has the lack of experience Ms. Palin has and that the American voter will not vote for McCain solely because he chose a pro-life running mate. I also hope that the women that supported Ms. Clinton who are threatening to vote for McCain will think twice before voting for someone who disagrees with 98% of the positions Ms.Clinton ran for President on.

Barack Obama brings a needed change to the White House.

— Mark Jeffery Koch, Cherry Hill, New Jersey"

We have diners, high school football, the great outdoors and we call it America. We cheer for our teams to win and don't pull our stars off the field when we are winning. When we lose, we lose with grace. We come together for a prayers on Sunday and wave at our neighbors.

Sounds exactly like my life -- and the lives of all my family, friends and neighbors, Democrats and Republicans, independents, and apoliticals.

You're not different from us, not more patriotic, not nobler.

You prove that you're just as guilty of arrogant, holier-than-thou (elitist???) thinking as others, liberal and conservative.

Unless you begin to recognize your own pretensions, your criticisms of other will only sound like hypocritical nonsense.

You're thinking of all those brie-nibblers and wine drinkers in New York City (New York City!?!).

All I have to add is, I got me a hockey wife (Go Red Wings! Stanley Cup Winners!) who just hates the idea of Palin being a means to attract women to McCain. Real people see through the bullshit, OldSarg. NOW DROP AND GIVE ME 50 FOR BEING A DUMBASS!!!

People will see themselves in Palin? As a male, I have to say the typical behavior by females when presented with an example of another female who is pretty, accomplished, and lucky in life is to hate her. The support for Hillary? Well, Hillary has never been a threat to the beauty contestants. Nor has Hillary, on her own, become overly accomplished. That last was supposed to be a reason to oppose her, but could it have been how so many women were so comfortable with her run? As for Hillary's luck, with Bill it's been mixed at best.

We could argue that Palin's child with Down's syndrome is a bit of bad luck - except she presents it as a precious gift from God. She got where she is largely by her lucks and blind luck. There's no way she's more deserving of her position - aside from looks and luck - than most other women in Alaska. She even calls herself "Valley trash." Now, I could be wrong on this instance, but there's a likelihood many women will just plain hate her for her success. The thought will be, "She's got what I would have gotten if I'd been born more beautiful." There's a sort of identification there, to be sure, but it plays against Palin.

I have been taken aback by the number of women, from different backgrounds, ages, classes and political views, whose first comments about her to me have been to disparage her fashion sense. I get a vague feeling there is some additional unspoken communication I'm supposed to be receiving through those comments, but I'm too dumb a male to pick it up.

avatar

As you say, many people will see themselves in Palin but, contrary to your belief, most people do not see themselves as VP and know themselves to be unequal to the task..

So you admit you hate America?

You nailed it OldSarg. That's Palin's attraction and that is exactly what the republicans were aiming for. The first picture I saw of the family looked like they had just stepped out of church with their Sunday duds on like thousands of middle class small town families.

They will have drilled enough talking points into her head by the time she goes live for real. I mean how long does it take to memorize "I've been to Iraq and the surge is working", "I can shoot a gun and the surge is working","POW hero", and finally "the surge is working, POW hero". She might add "Obama lacks judgment because the surge is working and he was against the surge."

This was a very canny choice on the repub part and is a very dangerous one for the Obama campaign. I think all the talk I've seen here about her dropping out before she's nominated is just whistling in the dark. As for troopergate, the republicans own Alaska don't they? And, if necessary, they will fix the troopergate story is my assessment of the situation. In summary, I am still panicked.

avatar

Fortunately McCain has shown a very good propensity for stepping on his own dick.

But picking Palin sure showed everyone the quality of McBush's judgement, doesn't it?

Heck, those secret service agents just stand around all the time doing nothing anyway. They can change diapers, can't they?

Anyone who dares suggest that a VP just might be a hair too busy to take care of TWO newborn babies, why, they're just chauvinistic pigs, ain't they? Rotten dirty little liberal bloggers, too, I bet.

Heck, we wimin have beeen doing all the work all along, haven't we? and all the child care. Nothing to it, really. Piece of cake.

CFMA!!

Rec'd. Steady as she goes.

It seems clear that McCain selected Palin to shore up his evangelical/social conservative base. Which, in and of itslef, seems like a desperation move.

Lots of posters here are making the mistake of walking right into the McCain trap and attacking Palin.

Obama, Axelrod et al seems to understand and are laying off Palin.

Yes, they are. And Leno, Letterman, O'Brian and SNL will foolishly walk into his diabolical trap as well, for week after week. Then you'll really start seeing Gramp McPow's numbers shoot through the roof.

avatar

You're right. The Evangelicals live off of a sense of persecution and victimology, even while attacking other groups for playing the victim card. The more they're ridiculed, the more they see that as proof of the depravity of popular culture and the elites that have left them behind.

Making fun of the cultural traits that they hold to proudly as proof that they are the only Americans who are really American, the only ones who protect and defend, just makes them more stubborn.

In fact, there's some truth to the feeling that, at least, white working-class Americans HAVE been left behind by corporations and finance, who've taken their jobs and gone chasing after cheap labor over seas. And they think the nation's elites don't care about them. And to some extent, they're right.

So we need to knock off the cheap jokes and realize that there's a reason to care about these, "the least of our brothers," because they've been suffering from a loss of hope for a couple of decades now. Oddly enough, that roughly parallels the rise of teh Rovian/Nixonian GOP.

Let's not blow this, people. Palin's not the issue, but fixing the problems of the white working-class is very much our problem, too.

Umm, I was being sarcastic. Once Leno, et. al. start making fun of you, you're done. If it drives the rather diminished evangelical theocrat vote further into the batcave, well, what the hell else is new? Its not like we were ever getting that vote to start with.

Umm, I was being sarcastic. Once Leno, et. al. start making fun of you, you're done. If it drives the rather diminished evangelical theocrat vote further into the batcave, well, what the hell else is new? Its not like we were ever getting that vote to start with.

Umm, I was being sarcastic. Once Leno, et. al. start making fun of you, you're done. If it drives the rather diminished evangelical theocrat vote further into the batcave, well, what the hell else is new? Its not like we were ever getting that vote to start with.

McCain chose Sarah Palin out of desperation. She's a sock puppet. A trophy running mate. Nothing more. He picked her because he's prone to making rash decisions and because the far right forced him to choose her. McCain caved. The people he once charged were "agents of intolerance" are now in charge of his campaign. Barack Obama has spent nearly two years introducing himself to America. We know him, we know what he stands for, and we have a fairly clear idea of where he wants to take this country. Before John McCain chose Sarah Palin, we were starting to think we knew him as well. That's all out the window. John McCain just pushed his campaign back to square one. Now we're all wondering who this Sarah Palin is and what she stands for. But more important: we're wondering the same things about John McCain. McCain blew it. He took a risk, rolled the dice and came up snake eyes.

avatar

No handwringing from me. I've been genuinely pleased with this pick. Actually laughing about it for a few days.

My view is that McCain lost his nerve, panicked, and basically undermined his whole campaign. This is possibly the coup de grace.

What's remarkable is that Obama's calm has caused two far older and more experienced opponents to self-destruct. Bill and Hillary lost their cool in South Carolina. They cracked under the pressure and in frustration. I think McCain essentially did the same thing. The DNC convention was such a hit, Obama achieved his goals, and came charging and hitting back hard. All of the GOP-MSM hopes for dissent and chaos failed. McCain must have been furious over the mockery of his houses, has never respected Sen. Obama, and just couldn't stand falling behind to him.

I don't know how he does it, but Obama stays calm under insane amounts of pressure and makes it look easy. And this infuriates his opponents, and then loose their cool.

I'm enjoying the show, Quaylin included. I can't wait for McCain's speech later this week. Probably the only one I'll watch. I'm hoping for a repeat of the Green Screen Challenge from Blinky Magoo. This trainwreck of a ticket is a lot of fun.

I guarantee you that the Obama camp had a similar strategic discussion as some of us presented here. But a strategic discussion does not a panic make.

You figure the probably tactics of the opposition and target and neutralize.

Only problem here is that some aren't able to understand that understanding the tactics of the opposition is not the same as promoting the opposition!

To assume McCain made a crazy decisison is foolhardy as I pointed out on Friday. A more likely scenario is posited by the VOTEMASTER here:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Aug30.html

You may have a better read on the personality of McCain than I, dear clearthinker. But I view him as very capable of seizing control of a decision and stubbornly sticking to his guns. Possibly your assessment is right about the strategic reasons why some may actually have urged this choice. Nonetheless, if this was such a careful strategic and tactical decision, can you explain the lack of vetting? Is there a strategic and/or tactical reason for that? Or might we not consider that this decision was made in haste and thus neglected certain crucial steps?

The analysis of what "should" have happened (which you're giving) has the same end point as a hastily thrown together offer. Consider that. So, given that we only know the end result, we can do no more than conjecture what led to it. And the more problems that crop up with this "Pick of Palin," the more messy the decision looks to me. And the more it seems to fit with other rash and hasty decisions this man admits to.

I don't necessarily disagree with you per se. My point is never underestimate the opposition and to that effect dismissing someone as rash or making a bad decision exposes you if you are wrong.

As Obama said tonight on 60 MINUTES, the GOP don't govern well, but they sure do know how to campaign.

If I am wrong -- and McCain made an inane mistake -- well, we lost some energy. But if I am right... can we afford the consequences?

I'll stick with the idea that they know what they are doing for now -- much as I stuck with the idea that the Clinton campaign wasn't stupid either, even when they didn't take 11 or so primary contests seriously after SuperDuperTuesday.

I will be very happy to be pointed out wrong as this plays out. ;-)

avatar

That fictional dialog was purty funny actually... "Ma Ferguson" LOL!!!!

Hey, I didn't say we were panicking over this. On the contrary, the fact that (almost) none of us were panicking over is what made it such a useful teaching aid for a lesson about the dangers of panicky decision-making.

O you bet I do my dear.

This was a suicidal mistake. It will be discussed forever in presidential politics.

Gramps 'n Gidget just handed us the election (well, I think we won it last Thursday night, but this was the icing.)

"Gramps and Gidget." ROFLMAO!

Oh, you are a very, very wicked person. I really don't think I'm ever gong to be able to call them anything else now.

Tena,

Obama doesn't feel like this is locked up. Why do you?

Hubris, hubris, hubris.

Or are you going to call me a GOP troll again because I say "it ain't over 'til it's over"?

I think what she means--or, at least what I mean--is that McCain's ability to win through his own efforts and on his own merits have slipped away. It's a race between Obama's train and McCain's. Obama's is faster and McCain's can't beat it in a straight-up race. The only way he can win it now is by derailing Obama's train.

If it's Gramps and Gidget is that de facto sexual harassment?

avatar

I am more than a little concerned that the evil bastard Rove is calling for people to give more money to the 527s to run smears against Obama. I think we're going to see viciousness on a level that we can't imagine, primarily because no one has more reason to fear Obama's election than Karl Rove, who would be stripped of the protection against prosecution that he is currently being afforded by BushCo.

I'm wondering if the McCain camp's quick decamping from the twin cities to a venue near the hurricane is another knee-jerk reaction by the McCain campaign. If he simply doesn't hold much of a convention, then there can be no comparison of the tv audiences for the two conventions. Given the likelihood that the Republicans would never draw such a high rating as the Dems did, it seems like a smart way to avoid that comparison.

If he doesn't make an acceptance speech, the whole aborted convention will be seen for the ruse not to suck by comparison that it is and he'll be branded a big yellow chicken for not wanting to be compared to Obama. (Chicken, incidentally, was one of the many foods he couldn't enjoy while he was a POW.)

I, for one, am still hoping that he can get all of the old white guys he had on stage with him after the Virginia primary and the legendary green background all together at once for the big event.

ROTFLMAO!

McCain can have that crowd of white men with that green screen. I wish McCain would rid VA of those people on stage and take them with him to perdition. You are so funny NCSteve. ;-)

Have you noticed that when McCain/Palin had their rally in PA, the camera never panned out on to the audience. We viewers on tv never got to see how large the crowd was. Also, she claps into the mic! No grace.

For the Obama/Biden rally on the same day, the camera panned out and the tv viewer got an idea of how big the crowd was, and it was big.

Nevertheless, I wonder how she will play w/the good ole'boys clubs further down state. I very much doubt her abilities in NoVA.

McPow could, in fact, pulll ahead in the Gallup Daily or some other poll.
The Democratic convention bounce seems like it's evaporating very, very fast. On Drudgereport:
CNN Poll: Obama 49, McCain 48...

ZOGBY:

McCain/Palin 47%
Obama/Biden 45%...

Not to worry. It's still early...

Remember, the election will be won in the swing states. Not by a national poll.

True, which is a bummer if you live in CA -- it's pretty clearly going to be written off by both candidates.

I wanna be courted too! Whah! ;-)

Tell me about it. I live in Illinois.

Maybe so, but both Gallup and Rasmussen show their bumps holding steady over the same days as these "polls" were taken. You can't compare these apples to Gallup's oranges and Rasmussen's, er, kumquats.

The CNN numbers are facially ridiculous. No way have 97% (CNN) made up their minds before Labor Day. That in itself is a patently absurd result. Then, the totals from their last one totalled 96%. The more the methodology squeezes people who haven't really made up their minds into pretending they have, the less movement you're going to get because there's no room. Not coincidentally, this is just the result CNN would like to support its preferred breathless narrative of a razor thin margin.

As to Zogby, well Zogby is to polling as astrology is to astronomy and as alchemy is to chemistry.

=D

Thanks for this. I for one, am tired of the hysteria.

avatar

Are people really swayed at this point? The narratives for both candidates are out there.

The latest batch of republicans have a habit of shooting from the hip whether it's "bring them on!" or WNDs or Sarah Palin. Americans like the "balls", for want of a better word, republicans have.

Democrats are more cerebral. It's worth nothing the post above that says "you don't understand us". That person is right. Not because we don't understand them; but that were not TALKING to them. We are cerebral; they are base. It's OK, just different.

That's why Palin doesn't bother me....it's the hurricane. It gives republicans an opportunity to show they know what they're doing. And gives them a chance to talk about everything but Katrina; WNDs and all the other shitty things they've done the past 8 years.

Yes, people are really being swayed at this point. Not the people who seek information, but the ones swayed by a narrative and emotions. And that is what they have tried to do with Palin- the Trophy Running Mate - whom they have cast as a saint: She's a saint, they imply. So who needs experience? That's what this is about!

It will be interesting to see what the Vetting team McSame just dispatched to AK dig up in their work... don't expect it to be made public but do think the national media will be asking questions next week...

Most are still on "break".

BTW... Great Post Steve

avatar

@ TheraP (That's really cute BTW).

I don't really think they will. She's a beauty queen for goodness sakes. That's not a bad thing, but when people really get over the shock and start talking about who she is...what she believe is...it's going to be fine.

Most guys will love to think she's a beer drinkin' broad. But who really wants to put their trust in a beauty queen? Not many I suggest.

I'm not being mean; and lord knows we all love women. But ask yourselves, are Republican men THAT progressive to work for a woman?

In Rasmussen's 3-day rolling average tracker, Obama was up by 3 in the 3-day period right before the convention began and is now still up by 3 in the 3-day period after the convention, so Rasmussen shows Obama got no bounce.

CNN says Obama was tied last weekend and is now ahead by 1 point, no bounce.

The dubious Zogby online interactive, which normally tilts heavily to Obama, now has McCain up by 2.

After Palin's and McCain's speeches, the fall campaign will begin with McCain slightly ahead, probably. And that's not taking the Bradley effect into account.

Also keep in mind that in October Jeremiah Wright releases his tell-all memoir that will dominate the news for a few days.

If Obama performs in the debates like he did at Saddleback and in the Philly debate against Hillary, he will be foreclosed from winning.

You know, I really can't recall anyone who strained so hard to find reasons to be pessimistic before you showed up. I often saw Hillary supporters straining this hard for reasons to be optimistic, but that's different. (It is different, right? You're being pessimistic, not optimistic, right?) You really just seem to be emotionally invested in an Obama loss.

Whatever,

Rasmussen uses a likely voter filter that weights for party id. Polls using that methodology inherently depress any convention bounce that may have occurred.

Yes, CNN said he was tied last weekend and shows the same this weekend. And that's patently absurd. CNN claims that almost no one is undecided as of Labor Day. I simply cannot believe that it's a coincidence that CNN, the news network with the most breathless coverage of this "tight, tight" race uses a pollster that consistently finds this to be a much closer race than anyone else who's not using a likely voter filter. Even if they hadn't been polling over Labor Day weekend, which is staggeringly stupid in itself if your goal was to get an accurate picture of where things stand, as opposed to generating backfill for the network's favored narrative.

And Zogby Interactive? Are you kidding me? Self-selected respondents over Labor Day weekend? It's the opposite of information.

"If Obama performs like he did at Saddleback?" Jeriahmiah Wright? Philly? Did you fail to notice that, among the target audience, Saddleback, Obama actually improved his performance among a basically hostile group? You think the problem at Philly was Obama's performance and not the Chuck and Stevie show? Who, not surprisingly, were shut out of doing any of the general election debates? You think McCain is Hillary?

Yes, Gramps and Gidget could pull ahead in some poll if the stars align perfectly for them. I specifically noted that. But geez, that's a far cry from your thesis, which seems to be Obama faces nearly insurmountable barriers to victory. To get there, you're really going to have to stop acting like national polls mean anything and tell me specifically how McCain hold's on to almost every single state that's in play and pulls some out of our bag without a ground game in any of them other than Virginia and Florida, because that's what its going to take.

avatar

The dubious Zogby online interactive, which normally tilts heavily to Obama, now has McCain up by 2.

You didn't believe it when it had a huge Obama lead, but now you believe it when it shows a McCain lead.

Here's a clue - what makes it dubious isn't the result it shows, it's the methodology.

There will definitely be a tendency to come to the defense of Palin because of who she is and how she looks. It's an ingrained response to threats against a fertile woman, seen as the source of the human race's future success.

avatar

Seems a chink has developed in the Palin armor already. That didn't take long. We may not be talking about "values" soon in addition to experience.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13050.html

@ DrZalus

Jeremiah Wright is not coming out with any tell-all memoir - at least any time soon - despite the apoplectic poking of the coals by many on the right (and some on the left).

http://essence.typepad.com/news/2008/08/daughter-rev-wr.html

Oh, and oops, the six point bump his holding steady in the Gallup Daily.

McPow is up two points from yesterday and so is Obama. While many will rush to proclaim it a Palin bounce,there is, in fact, no mathematical basis to reject the null hypothesis that it's just statistical noise.

And CBS/Times now says 48-40.

Gallup/USA Today, 50 - 43.

But I'm sure all the EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR SARAH!!!! today will set that to rights in no time flat, because otherwise, polling showing Obama cracking the 50 barrier and seven points ahead would tend to indicate that McPow's in a spot of trouble.

Palin gets the base fired up for McCain. That's it.

He got a little bitty bump. Don't panic.

What is there to add to this masterful post? Only this: blackjack also has pretty decent odds against the house.

What is there to add to this masterful post? Only this: blackjack also has pretty decent odds against the house.

What is there to add to this masterful post? Only this: blackjack also has pretty decent odds against the house.

What is there to add to this masterful post? Only this: blackjack also has pretty decent odds against the house.

Unless you can count cards, the house still has an edge. Granted it's (correct me if I'm wrong) the lowest edge in the house and the bottom line is probably better than the low stakes poker tables once you factor in the rake.

Saw my first and only McCain bumper sticker in Los Angeles two weeks ago. Judging from the phone-ins to KPCC (covering the Republican convention) this morning, I don't think there'll be too many more ...

No panic here, but an attempt at a sober assessment of the changed dynamics such as CT suggests.

Alaska websites, notably Andrew Halcro's show that Palin, whatever her qualifications, is a vote-getter and can handle herself in debates (albeit using a transparent device). She polls well with moderate women despite her strong positions and is a thoroughly orthodox modern Republican in terms of her mix of pro-business and social issues stances. She is not some kind of odd-duck in the Republican pool of rising stars.

She can talk reformist talk, actually cut budgets, and has some record in her short stint that she will be able to "point with pride" to.

From study of her past public appearances, it looks as if she is addicted to the "sunny optimism" school of GOP rhetoric-for-the-masses and will use that and a gift for generalities to blunt Biden. I don't doubt she will bring up her governing experience also in that regard.

In my own opinion she is a reasonable choice for running mate, not outstanding but not poor also. She reminds me a bit of Romney in her positions, but doesn't have that defect Romney had that the old Kennedy commercials spotlighted. We won't be able to point out a whole lot negative.

I hold to my original assessment that this was in essence a damage minimizing, conservative, choice on the part of the McCain campaign.

avatar

Laura,
Won't do any good because he's nothing but his pretensions, and everything he says will always be hypocritical nonsense.

avatar

Laura,
Won't do any good because he's nothing but his pretensions, and everything he says will always be hypocritical nonsense.

Ugh, what the hell is going on with TPM? I got a server error when posting, and trying to avoid repeated posts, reloaded the original page. Since my post wasn't there, I reentered my post with the same result. And again... and again...

Sorry about the repeats!

I finally figured out that "Internal Server Error" = "Your comment posted and will appear shortly." Quite the intuitive interface.

Ummm, but not, apparently, today.

avatar

Maybe this is a good way to put it:

John McCain's first big decision was to pick someone who he was certain would make an effective president in the case of his own demise, and he chose Sarah Palin.

You know 8 years ago we were presented with a gamble- a leap of faith, if you will, that a newish governor of a state with a fairly minimal state governent, (the Texas governement only convenes for two months out of the year or something), who seemed fairly average, a guy you'd like to have a beer with, but not TOO smart, which was good we were told, would make a darn good president if we just gave him a chance. Well we took that leap. And look what happened.

So what do you say we do it again!?

avatar

I'd say Obama is likely pursuing a strategy of respectful (adult) opposition, watching her rope spooling out, the one she'll hang the ticket with.

Look at what's come out during the "honeymoon" since she was announced. Piling on while they implode won't do any good. It'd energize their base, much like Hillary and New Hampshire.

The debate will be key. Biden will have one shot at finding the right balance and tone. He'll have much more maneuver room if he debates (virtual) McCain instead of going directly at her.

The question in the voters mind should be "if something terrible (heaven forbid) happened to McCain prior to Election Day, would I vote for her for President?"

avatar

Since Friday an old scandal gets new life, a new scandal complete with investigation and an out of wedlock baby.

Good Lord!

As for the gambler aspect of this post. Do YOU want to gamble with the Presidency?

Great post but I wouldn't say he threw his argument over the side, I'd say he brought it front and center. "Yes, fine, she's inexperienced. Wanna have a discussion with me about experience Mr. Obama? Please, let's."

I think dems need to stfu about the experience thing.

avatar

I mean, if we all work to get Obama elected, we are going to win this thing. I am glad that we have calls for calm becuase we really can win this thing.

avatar

I mean, if we all work to get Obama elected, we are going to win this thing. I am glad that we have calls for calm becuase we really can win this thing.

I saw a McCain bumper sticker the other day - McCain's Heating & Air Conditioning. They were hawking winter heater tune-ups. Maybe I'll give them a call.

I saw a McCain bumper sticker the other day - McCain's Heating & Air Conditioning. They were hawking winter heater tune-ups. Maybe I'll give them a call.

avatar

Damn that was funny... How many McPoints did you get?

Forget the bold faced lie at the press conference. Forget the teen pregnancy.
Forget the ongoing corruption investigation and upcoming deposition under oath.
Forget the fact that no republican official has come out on the airwaves in front of her.
Forget the fact that she was the member of a political party that wanted to secede from the United States.
Forget that she wants to teach creationism in schools.

What did I forget?

avatar

Damn that was funny... How many McPoints did you get?

Forget the bold faced lie at the press conference. Forget the teen pregnancy.
Forget the ongoing corruption investigation and upcoming deposition under oath.
Forget the fact that no republican official has come out on the airwaves in front of her.
Forget the fact that she was the member of a political party that wanted to secede from the United States.
Forget that she wants to teach creationism in schools.
Forget that she thinks the founding fathers wrote the pledge of allegiance.

What did I forget?

Great post but I wouldn't say he threw his argument over the side, I'd say he brought it front and center. "Yes, fine, she's inexperienced. Wanna have a discussion with me about experience Mr. Obama? Please, let's."

I think dems need to stfu about the experience thing.

avatar

Formerly, I think I really like you !

(platonically of course)

Post a Comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Book Club Calendar

Coming Soon



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »





Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address