« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Scooped: Obama's VP Choice Solved!
Hmmmm. Well, it seems Obama is putting the press through the ringer on his VP decision. Recently, there was an excellent post by Al Giordano over at the Field on the subject of the vice presidency.
Essentially, his point in the blog was to point out that Obama is baiting the press, faking them out, saying "PSYCHE!" The point of the fake-outs: to keep the story going, to promote other politicians who deserve a spotlight, and to build up the excitement for the inevitable choice. I would also argue- to throw off the McCain campaign. Or as Giordano concludes (using basketball terminology as he did throughout this blog post):
I could be wrong (and if I am, there's no shortage of asshats who will shout "Gotcha!" and proclaim it as proof that I'm overrated as a predictor of future events; well, who isn't?), but the hype around Bayh this week feels - to me - like the prelude to something else, to somebody else, as Obama's running mate: a pump fake to put the rival on his heels and set up the real shot, from outside the three point line.
The "pump fake" of Bayh is also echoed by the earlier press frenzy over Kaine, according to Giordano. Giordano says he has no idea who the choice will be, but maintains they will chose an "outsider" to reinforce Obama's "change" meme. He says that a non-endorsement of Obama could even be a good thing. Giordano hints severely at Sebelius or Schweitzer (through reader's comments) getting the nod. Al Gore is also mentioned by his astute reader's.
I had a different take, the same take I've maintained for quite some time.
I have thought for over a year now that Senator Russ Feingold will be Obama's VP.
I have thought this ever since the this Democratic Senate Press Conference on January 8, 2007.
I didn't know Obama was going to get the nomination, but I sure thought his was an effort to gain the Democrats and Obama some publicity.
During the press conference Feingold and Obama unveiled Ethics legislation part of which Bush signed into law. The Good Government Act, I believe. The bill put rules on bundlers (bundling being a hot topic now- see Hess Corporation and Harry Sergeant), lobbyists and corporate jets, etc. A minor victory. In any case this gives Obama and Feingold a record of having already changed Washington.
I thought the press conference seemed odd, a bunch of hubaloo for nothing, considering the legislation hadn't even passed yet. Basically, it was a big Democratic preamble for the election, I think. Getting the brand out there with lobbyist reform and cleaning up Washington. (Funny thing is Lieberman was there. If they only new...) However, the press conference offers great proof, with great photos, that Obama and Feingold have been changing Washington together for some time. It's a record the press can go back to. The fact there are great photos to go with it just adds to media saviness of it all.
Second, Caroline Kennedy is the VP vetter. Russ Feingold, along with John McCain were recipients of the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage award for their work on McCain-Feingold. Caroline Kennedy was part of that decision and clearly she has a high regard for Feingold. I'm sure he is very much on her radar.
Kennedy could have even been placed on the committee to help legitimize the decision. Obama knowing he wanted Feingold, knowing Kennedy would draw the parallels of Obama, Feingold, and her father. Just as she had drawn the parallels of her father and Feingold, and her father and Obama previously.
Third, the issues. Feingold has co-sponsored numerous bills that would help Senator Obama. He voted against the war, Patriot Act, FISA (bring in libertarians, independents), immigration bill. He has recently introduced the Use It or Lose It Oil Bill. The list goes on.
Also, Feingold is a great public speaker. He is very intelligent and thoughtful when speaking. He explains complicated issues in a simple, easy to understand manner, as seen here. However, he speaks his mind and can speak forcefully, but I've never heard a gaffe. He'd be a great outspoken attack dog. Also, he has a plain and folksy delivery and loves to reference Wisconsin. He travels to each WI county (all 72) at least once a year.
Clearly, he is popular with libertarians and Independents in Wisconsin. (2004 exit poll results here). Oh, and even Republicans admire his tenacity and his principles. Of course, he also reminds them of the McCain-Feingold bill, which they hate McCain for. Also, important is the possibility of campaign finance violations by the McCain campaign gaining tranction in the traditional media. Feingold would be great to have on hand in that event. Finally, he managed to grab some Bush voters in the 2004 election (5 to 6%).
He is also a budget hawk, sits on the Select-Intelligence Committee (which is HUGE--privileged information), the Judiciary Comm, Budget Comm, and the Foreign Relations Comm, among others.
The Select Comm. on Intelligence is really a big one. These Senators have had access to some of the knowledge that has been stinking up politics for the last 7 plus years (see FISA, scandals, etc).
Finally, if you want an outsider, you've got one in Feingold.
I admit Schweitzer is a great choice as well for similar reasons. However, given some of the circumstantial evidence I have noticed over the last year and a half, all seems to point to Feingold.
However, if Giordano and/or my commentary doesn't strike you as accurate, and you prefer the front-runners, you may enjoy this article.
Comments (84)
I was incorrect the "Good Gov't Act" I sited above should be S. 1: the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3521320
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s110-1
August 7, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, "PSYCHE" should be "PSYCH". A good shout out to the Greek mother of Cupid though.
August 7, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Psyche was Cupid's lover. The goddess Aphrodite was Cupid's mother.
This concludes entirely irrelevant tangent thread, we now return you to your regularly scheduled program.
August 8, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
you're so right, my bad. thanks!
August 8, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can only hope you're right. But I just don't think you are.
August 7, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sebelius would be the best, then we could focus on "Don't drop the soap" for another month and maybe have a chance...
August 7, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
In reference to her sons "prison sex board game" I presume?
August 7, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you are looking for an outsider with terrific qualifications, then you are looking at the wrong Wisconsin political leader.
Here is the Wisconsin Democrat with the strongest resume, by far.
http://www.wisgov.state.wi.us/section.asp?linkid=87&locid=19
He also endorsed Obama and campaigned for him very early on, unlike you guy, who sat it out.
August 7, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes, but is an endorsement necessary?
August 7, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bayh and Kaine for VP stampedes were not "head" nor "pump" fakes by the Obama campaign, they were just that - stampedes of our echo chamber, herd mentality media, comprised largely of folks who have yet to have an original thought. The echoes, I might add, were also propagated here by a number of equally thoughtless amateur pundits.
To wit, that Bayh's selection would be announced yesterday and that Obama's running behind where he should be in the polls.
August 7, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Giordano suggests, the hints to the media on the VPS may have been subtle, but intentional. I think Obama knew they (and we non- or amateur pundits) would freak out over news of Kaine and Bayh- the herd mentality, as you suggest.
August 7, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
First, I'm glad to see you mention Schweitzer. He's my number one pick, so any mention of him makes me happy.
I agree completely with you and Giordano about the "FAKE OUT!" method, which I was pretty sure was the case with Bayh when people were spreading the rumors about him getting VP.
I don't, however, agree about it being Russ Feingold. Or rather, I'm not convinced that it will be Feingold. I would, however, concede that Feingold is likely being vetted by the Obama camp.
I like Feingold. I think there are more reasons that simply those you mention that would make him a good pick for VP. My issue comes from a couple of places:
a) He's a Senator. I personally think Obama should NOT pick a Senator, especially one such as Feingold who's doing so much good in the Senate. Feingold is a fighter for the left, and I would be quite disappointed if his voice was no longer on the Senate floor.
b) Feingold is extremely liberal. Despite what McCain says about Obama, Feingold is more of a leftist liberal than Obama is. While I would love to have such a voice in the White House and with Obama, I feel that perhaps there could be a backlash in the long run. I know some people would chew me out for even mentioning it, but it has to be taken into account. I'm not even saying I want a complete centrist to avoid that. I'm saying it's the image that counts here, and Feingold is directly associated with the far left.
Feingold is not my first choice, but if Obama chose him would I be happy? You bet I would. I have a ton of respect for the guy, and I agree that he would probably be a brilliant attack dog for Obama.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?
August 7, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
a.) That is a common charge and with good reason, I think. Feingold of course, isn't your typical Senator. Iwould argue he is the exception to the no Senator rule. He is principled and consistent in his voting. As I argue in the thread- some of his votes and bills could indeed help. As VP, he would be the President of the Senate- which is important to consider. However, I agree it would be sad to lose his voice and his vote in the Senate.
b.) Feingold is very liberal. However, many of his most liberal votes are also echoed by Obama. I think this would be a line of attack, I agree- however, who wouldn't be labelled as too liberal? We even saw arguments of how Bayh is the most liberal senator in a red state, after all. Of course, his association with "activists" (shall we say) would also fire up the grassroots efforts in this campaign if he was announced.
Good points, I can't really refute them, but I don't think they exactly disqualify him.
I think Feingold is such a lock, in part, because Schweitzer is running for reelection.
August 7, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, they're not disqualifying. They're just nitpicking on my part. =)
He's running for reelection? I didn't know that. That blows. ...I will still have hope! Haha!
August 7, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too, would love, LOVE Schweitzer. Possibly more than Feingold b/c then we wouldn't lose him from the Senate.
August 7, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's precisely my point. I really just don't wanna lose any Dems. in the Senate right now. It's not the right time to be giving up those seats, in my opinion. Still, if Obama does pick a Senator, and certainly one like Feingold, I will be perfectly content.
August 7, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be fine with whoever it is, even Bayh. Obama's the one setting the message, the policies, etc. in motion. It's his platform. Clearly, he knows what he is doing.
However, the VP could certainly ADD excitement depending on who it is.
August 7, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely in agreement with you there.
August 7, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feingold would rally the right only slightly less than Sen Clinton being on the ticket.
Also this -
August 7, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know Jonze, I've seen quite a few Repubs sing his praises. They don't agree with his positions, but they respect the man. Not quite the same as with Hillary. Were it is a visceral hatred on a personal level.
Regarding the divorce, McCain wouldn't touch them. Feingold is still friends with both of his ex-wives. McCain? Not so much. His ex-wife hates him and for good reason.
August 7, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
A good point on the divorce. Sen. Feingold couldn't run before because he'd likely be up against candidates who could throw stones. The McCain Campaign wouldn't go there.
Russ isn't married right now though is he? That would probably count against him as well. And could even lead to rumors...
August 7, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, his single status could very well do that. Not very common in a Presidential election (if ever- anyone?)
However, it could also fire up the ladies. As a gay man, I think Russ is quite handsome (without being a pretty boy like Bayh). :)
August 7, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
August 7, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
(----- This ticket looks good. Just saying!
Perhaps the fact the my first attempt at this comment got swallowed up by the internets does not bode well for the Unity Ticket, but I am still keeping hope alive! :)
August 7, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, thanks dijamo! Keep the hope, you just never know!
Your comment getting eaten was probably the Obama campaign. They're on to me and my scoop! :)
August 7, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, you sucked me into reading your post. Glad you did.
As much as I think daily poll-results watching is For Entertainment Only™, veep speculation is even more so. That said, your post was detailed, eminently plausible, and, for those reasons, very Entertaining. Thanks!
Feingold is indeed on my short list, along with Chris Dodd and Wes Clark. My picks are based solely on who I think would best serve the country, not on any horserace considerations. (I allow myself this indulgence because I'm convinced McSame is unsalvageably toast, so the veep pick won't make any difference.)
Now I think I'll go read the Giordano reference in pursuit of some more Entertainment. Rec'd.
P.S. Just plunked another few bucks down for Al Franken.
August 7, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad you liked it, jzap! I would recommend the Giordano article and definitely read the comments section. Good stuff.
I get paid tomorrow- then they'll be more money for Al from me too. Thanks for helping support our future Senator Franken!!
August 7, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there was some leakage about Kaine or B-ayh from the very few people around Obama who know anything about this, it would not be to fake, but rather a test.
Kaine is the most likely choice. I think it is obvious given his life history, including the religious faith and the Spanish fluency as well as the VA and MO connections, and his close rapport with Obama. Bayh could very well be the safe fall back alternative if a problem is identified with Kaine.
This is real politics, not some liberal fantasy world. Forget Feingold. He is not a possibility. Obama doesn't need to motivate or excite the liberal base. He needs swing independent voters in swing states. He needs a non-controversial supporter without skeletons and with a nice looking family who is smart enough and controlled enough not to become the issue. Obama provides the excitement. The VP is to reinforce a message that appeals to independent voters.
August 7, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
i disagree. Look at the humbers for Dem support for Obama- they need to be bolstered. Furthermore, Feingold very much appeals to Independents. He will also appeal to new voters as he is every bit the change candidate Obama is.
Liberal fantasy world? Perhaps, however, I find the circumstances surrounding Feingold, Kennedy, the 2007 press conference, and Obama to be intriguing. The kind of long term, political "strategery" I would expect from Obama.
Bayh and Kaine are out there- to announce one of them would not build excitement. Al Giordano is spot on with his assessment, in my view. I like Kaine fine (even being a liberal lefty) and he was one of my, along with Giordano's early favorites for the spot. But recent events seem to indicate otherwise. I do not agree that Bayh and Kaine were balloons to be floated, but rather, "pump fakes" as Giordano asserts.
Time will tell.
August 7, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, as Giordano argues the "pump fakes" were also partly to promote Bayh and Kaine, as a thank you, and certainly to help in IN and VA.
August 7, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mickey is right. Won't be Feingold. Married three times, too liberal.
I'd like Tim Kaine, too. As far as who Barack will pick, all we have are his Tom Brokaw comments that he's looking for a good partner for governing. I don't think Bayh adds much to governing--he certainly not the type to disagree with higher-ups. Kaine is a complex and interesting person--I hope he gets the VP nod.
Biden--not a change candidate, plus, is running for reelection this year.
I disagree with the premise that Barack will pull a surprise. I think it will be Bayh, Biden, or Kaine.
August 7, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Married twice. FYI.
August 7, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama-Biden- NO. Sounds to much like Osama bin Laden. Not to rip on Biden- b/c I like the guy. But, seriously, say it out loud....
August 7, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure about Biden. I've said it before and I'll said it again: the guy has a mouth on him. It's a good thing to have for debates (where he did very well in the primary), but it's horrible for the campaign trail. I just find him to be too gaffe-prone... I really like him myself, but as a VP? For Obama? No thanks. Put him in the cabinet.
August 7, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Barack Obama-Dodd sounds like Ahmadinejad so I guess the Senator from Connecticut is out as well...
August 7, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL- hadn't thought of that, but, you're right! I think Dodd is probably out for other reasons- namely, Countrywide. Too bad, also. Dodd is right up there with Feingold, as far as quality Senators go.
August 7, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems the blog is attracting some centrist input. To them, I say, the liberal lefties of the Democratic party are also the most motivated and activist part of the party.
Fire up the grassroots (and the netroots, liberal libertarians, LGBT, etc that like Feingold) and you will gain in voter turnout.
Voter turn-out/voter registration will be key to getting the vote out this year.
August 7, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
er, to win, that is!
Anyways, I appreciate any and all comments. I hope the above statement doesn't sound like I'm talking down to anyone- not the intent.
August 7, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama-Hilton '08. She has the looks, the money, the name recognition, and her ads have more substance than McCain's.
August 7, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
that's hawt!
August 7, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hilton was also a head fake (no pun intended). Meanwhile, Britney has the surprise factor. And talk about vetted!
August 7, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
josephcast -- I don't feel that you are talking down to anyone. We just disagree about Feingold, even though I consider myself a liberal lefty as well.
I do agree with you that it definitely will not and should not be Biden, though for reasons beyond the name. He is too unpredictable, and too beltway establishment. He dilutes the message. IMO, the man is not all that bright, and Obama will pick someone he respects intellectually. I think if Obama picks anyone older from inside the beltway, other than the ex-governor, bland Bayh, it will be because the internal polls show that Hillary makes a big positive difference, which I doubt very much.
I think the stealth choice would be Schweitzer, not Feingold. I just don't think he brings as much to the table as Kaine and I have heard nothing to suggest a rapport with Obama.
August 7, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yay Schweitzer!
August 7, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, glad I didn't put you off. I thought I would cover my bases. In any case, agree that Schweitzer is a great choice. Indeed, this blog would probably be about him if he were not running for reelection. So, in a very simple sense, out with Schweitzer and input Feingold- they have many of the same things going for them, though in different ways (which could be a blog in and of itself).
August 7, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I personally think Schweitzer beats Feingold purely on the basis that he's fluent in Arabic. I find that to be just brilliant. ...But that's just me. ;D
August 7, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love love love Feingold. But in the senate. For me it's still Clark. He isn't being pulled from the senate, he's got the foreign policy cred, military, wicked smaht, telegenic, what he said about McCain was dead on accurate and as McCain continues to make himself look foolish it won't be necessary to go there again... it's a win, win, win pick.
August 7, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clark is good and would be great for the role in all the ways you list. However, does he meet the "change" meme? Important this year, at least IMO. So many good choices for the Dems this year. One good thing about endless talk of VPs is the promotion of other Dem candidates. For example, I'd never heard of Schweitzer before this year. Now come 2012 (and depending on the VP) I would love it if he ran for POTUS.
August 7, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I hear what your saying.
However, though Clark does seemed tied to the Clintons, he is still relatively new to the scene. He doesn't have a vast career in politics and I think his experience is a good balance for the "inexperienced" man at the top of the ticket.
But I realize I'm in the minority here and that it's probably a pipe dream at this point. Ah well, one can dream still... right?
August 7, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clark was "thrown under the bus" by the Obama Camp and surrogates so suffice to say he's not in the running.
I really don't think losing a senate seat is an issue if it gave Obama the best chance to win the White House. Obama is supposed to be post-partisan anyways and a consensus builder, and besides if you got your filibuster-proof 60 senators you still have the blue dogs to worry about.
August 7, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would love Feingold! Should he need a spouse to get this gig, I humbly and wholeheartedly offer, as my most patriotic duty, myself to one of the finest members of our government. Feingold is the only reason I am against term limits.
Being from IL, he has always been on my speed dial (I am a mere 10 miles from WI) and his staffers are incredibly informed. I always wrap up my calls to his offices begging him to run for POTUS.
From your keyboard to the Flying Spaghetti Monster's, uhm, ears (?)!
August 7, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't be too far from my old stomping grounds, then.
I lived in Waukegan for 2.5 years (early entry for college), then I lived in Rockford for 2+ years before moving to PA.
August 7, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
--Should he need a spouse to get this gig, I humbly and wholeheartedly offer, as my most patriotic duty, myself to one of the finest members of our government. --
LOL! Great line. Thanks Ms. Joanne.
August 8, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would be interested in your psycho-analysis of Hillary Clinton...Russ Feingold is Jewish, so he could help garner the 4% of the U.S. Jewish population but my prediction is still with Evan Bayh....see Gov Bayh step out from the Convention door #3, with confetti to follow....
August 7, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dodd has said that he isn't interested, and Dems would lose a Senate seat - the governor of Conn. is Repub.
Feingold would be great, but he's very liberal. Also, geographically that's an unbalanced ticket - from neighboring states. Same with Bayh. Although either would be a heartland ticket!
I think it will be either Clark or Sebelius.
August 7, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've got a great idea: Obama-Spielberg '08!
Think about it. Spielberg has lots of foreign policy experience (Saving Private Ryan, Schindler's List, all the Indiana Jones movies), he's very comfortable with technology, he's wildly popular with mainstream America, and he could finance the entire campaign himself!
August 7, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way... isn't "pump fake" a football term? I'm not a basketball fan so wouldn't know if they use it.
August 7, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it's used more in basketball than football (refers to a shooter "pumping" the ball to fake a defender off his/her feet). It would only apply in football to a quarterback faking a forward pass.
August 7, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and another "by the away"-- I don't think he's ever been talked about, ever been considered, but I really like Rahm Emanuel! Just sayin'.
August 7, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL...I love Rahm's style, but just imagine the audio clips that the GOP could drag out on him. :-)
August 7, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I given up on things like that. "Think about what the GOP could come up with with this guy, or that woman." It's never-ending!
I say throw caution to the wind. Pick the fellow who dared to say John McCain shouldn't be thought a great foreign policy expert due to his being shot down and held prisoner. Pick the fellow Illini with the other funny name! Go for it.
August 7, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to see Schweitzer's name getting tossed around--he's my favorite. Speaks Arabic, strong business background, can be the point man on energy policy (he's right with Obama on this too--clean coal as a transition to long-term renewables, and he knows the numbers inside and out, Al Gore style), executive experience, bipartisan, very popular across the West, strong on civil liberties, etc....
All that said, this post on Feingold was fun and persuasive, and I'd be happy with Russ too.
August 7, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feingold would make a great pick but the fact that he is twice divorced seems to me to be a scary prospect. One benefit you did not mention is that he is Jewish which could help in New Jersey and florida especially which could b key.
August 7, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feingold-Shweingold! He's a great Senator I am with him a trillion percent, but.....
It was Debbie Wasserman Schultz who was asked by Senator Obama to speak for him at this year's Hadassah conference. He could have asked Feingold but he didn't...care to speculate why?
Now that's trust you can believe in!
It was DWS who bought a bobble-head elephant to the House floor and delivered the now famous speech accusing the House Republicans of lacking a joint in their necks that would allow them to say no to the administration, their own leadership, or big Oil!
Now that's chutzpah you can believe in!
It will be DWS who will bring the great state of Florida to the democratic column in November!
Now that's Victory you can believe in!
DWS...BHO Unbeatable in November!!
August 7, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with the analysis above that Obama and his staff/surrogates continue to float potential VP candidates, viable or otherwise, to maintain press interest and have an additional story line for the MSM to cover. It's also a preliminary vetting opportunity if they are already acting as Obama surrogates.
There are many good senators that would make good running mates for Obama. In my opinion, however, it will not be a senator - it will likely be a high-profile governor for two primary reasons:
1. 60 votes. The democrats need 60 votes in the senate to accomplish the changes they desire in the fall. Based on the senate electoral maps at www.electoral-vote.com, it doesn't look likely, but they'll need all hands in the senate. Seniority also matters, so longer standing members are unlikely to be chosen either.
2. Carry key swing states. There are several key states that would, if won by Obama, likely lead to electoral victory - such as Ohio, Virginia, etc. A high profile governor of these states may help Obama win one of them. The corollary here is this governor must already have their own strong political organization that can compliment Obamas.
The counterargument to the above points is if a senator is chosen, they'd come from a strong democratic state with a good backup candidate (that's probably not Wisconsin, folks - NY is much more likely), and that the VP selection doesn't always bring votes (Edwards, etc...) - see the prior TPM polling on a Sebelius VP. Senators are also more likely to have substantive foreign policy experience.
We'll see, but my list is currently Kaine (VA, 13EV), Strickland (OH, 20EV, even though he's said no), and Richardson with a longshot candidate of Janet Napolitano. There are some other democratic governors such as Granholm (who is term limited, but unlikely due to the Michigan delegate debacle) and Ritter shouldn't be overlooked - MI has 17 EV, and Colorado is a blue trending state with 9 EV. And I wonder, if Easley of NC (15EV) would tip that state blue.
August 8, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to completely disagree with your analysis of purporting VPs so heavily with the EVs their states carry. I doubt the decision is going to come down to the issue of how much weight their state carries with EVs. If you can name me a time where a VP actually delivered a state for a Presidential Candidate, and effectively won the Presidency for him, then I'll look more favorably on the analysis. As far as I know, the only time such a thing has even been plausible was LBJ delivering Texas for JFK. But there's really no empirical evidence to suggest that a VP can actually deliver a state for a Presidential Candidate. At least none that I've seen in all my searching.
That said, I think the rest of your analysis is pretty good, especially disqualifying Senators. I'm right there with you. I think a Governor would be a much better choice, for all the reasons you mentioned and then some.
August 8, 2008 3:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Granholm isn't an option -- she was born in Canada.
August 8, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I really can't argue with that. If that is the case, I hope the governor is Schweitzer. In any case, great analysis! I think you get commment of the day.
August 8, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
From what I've read, Schweitzer wouldn't be bad - just wonder how he'd be on a national stage. And Montana only has 3EV.
I have no data to back this up. TPM previously published head to head polling with Obama and various VP candidates in several states (OH, IN) versus McCain (still haven't found the link) and other republican VP possibilities, including Pawlenty, etc. I'd bet that is one of the tools the campaigns are using. The rest of us just get to guess...
Watch out for the curveball from the McCain camp - wouldn't surprise me if they nominate a high profile female leader such as Hutchison of TX (there's your senator) or a bulldog such as Palin of AK, who could pull women voters.
I've also spoken with several republican voters, who have privately noted that McCain's age is a legitimate concern for them - it won't stop them from voting for him, but the VP candidate must have gravitas and a clear ability to step in.
August 8, 2008 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your concern about EV's is misplaced. No VP is going to swing a state this year, but we might hope for a general regional or demographic bump. On that score Schweitzer looks pretty good-- he campaigned for Governor Ritter in Colorado and is popular across the West. He's Catholic and his energy policy, support for gun rights, and independent streak might play well in places like WV, PA, and OH. As far as performance on the national stage, you might have something. He's an engaging speaker, but I haven't heard him field questions across the board or speak in a prime-time situation.
August 8, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really buy the whole VP "buys" a state arguments. I think you would need a very popular politician in a given state to even really think it would work. Namely some one in the high 60's in approval ratings for their state, I would think. One's that come to mind, without looking at math, in this season may be Richardson in NM, Warner in VA, and Schweitzer in MT.
There is always the possibility of that back-firing as well. Say, the residents of MT saying "No, we want Schweitzer, I'm not voting for you."
August 8, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I usually argue against arguing by analogy, but it's late here and....
Obama-Clinton = Kennedy-Johnson
Except that she doesn't bring any states, though she might bring more women and white men and except Johnson
They are rivals; intellectually very different with different goals and ambitions for government.
Kennedy could have used Johnson, but the cultural differences were too great -- they really couldn't stand each other. And neither will a President Obama and VP Clinton.
Adding a very liberal Jew to the ticket adds, I think, 1-2 too many wild cards. Obama being black is quite enough, thank you.
August 8, 2008 2:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would definitely be Kennedy-Johnson all over again.
But I'd like to think that after the fact that a black man named Barack Hussein Obama became the nominee for President for the Democratic Party, that putting a Jew on the ticket really wouldn't stir up much trouble at all. And considering the power that Jews hold in certain areas, it would most likely be more of a positive than anything else for Obama.
August 8, 2008 3:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. If we must talk about race, as we always seem to have to in this election season, how about the fact that Feingold is Jewish crushing all those rumors about Obama being a Muslim. The people who buy into that falacy would probably also buy into another falacy and stereotype, namely, that Muslims hate all Jews and vice versa.
August 8, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe the maturbatory idiocy about Feingold continues.
If you wan to be absolutely certain to lose in what should be a winner year, definitely pick the liberal darling Feingold. Great plan. Now if only Obama were that stupid; that does remain an obstacle for you.
August 8, 2008 3:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Maturbatory idiocy" about Obama's VP would perhaps be a more accurate description. Ever since Clinton conceded we have been caught in one large "circle jerk" over our picks, who's getting vetted, who's gonna be where and when, etc. The biggest idiocy I have seen has been coming from the media (Bayh, Kaine, Clinton et al).
Feingold is no more, or less likely than many of the other choices out there.
In any case, thanks for joining the circle.
Just remember, in the words of Green Day, when masterbation's lost it's fun, you're f$%@!ing breaking... which is of course the reason for the thread- talking about and speculating on VP's is fun. Political chess, if you will.
August 8, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like Clark, too!
August 8, 2008 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kathleen Sebelius had this in the bag long before anybody.
Obama Sebelius '08
Just look at them
August 8, 2008 7:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
They do look great together, I must admit. I'd be very happy with Sebelius, mainly because I would like our federal government do more things like this:
--A commission that Sebelius appointed to find government waste discovered that the state owned hundreds of cars it didn't use. So she sold 700 of them and forbade state agencies to buy more. The money earned from the car sale was small, but it showed that the new Governor was determined to find savings anywhere she could, from having all state agencies join together to bid for computers to asking state housekeeping workers to wear their own pants instead of government-issued ones. Through spending cuts, fee increases and some borrowing, Sebelius was able to balance Kansas' budget in her first year in office without raising taxes or cutting funding for education.--
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1129537,00.html
We need to balance our budget, cut spending, and put more money where it is needed. That's the kind of no-nonsense budget cutting I'd like to see. Get rid of some of that fat on the pork!
August 8, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
My #1 is still Al Gore.
Were it not for his "personally pro-life" stance, Kaine would be my #2.
Schweitzer would be interesting, but would he leave MT state politics so soon - just when Dems are gaining ground?
August 8, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
UPDATE: I will be seeing Senator Russ Feingold at one of his listening sessions in Wisconsin. I am pumped. I'm going to sit back and enjoy, since I am a resident of MN, but I may pop him the VP question if there is time.
I'll let you know what I find. Check back on Sunday!
August 8, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bayh is Mr. Boring. Obama needs a VP candidate that can hit the campaign trail running with forceful rhetoric to hit back against the McCain tactics. Bayh is whimpy. Biden is too Northeast. He would be painted as elite and the duo would be thus labeled as the elitist team. Biden is also too career DC. Kaine, I'm not sure of-don't know that much about him except he is a pretty conservative DEM which wouldn't make the progressives very happy. Sweitzer is very likeable and can talk energy very articulately. No one knows who he will pick, but I can't wait to find out.
August 8, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's VP is already on the campaign trail.
In fact earlier today he sent me a YouTube of him on the trail meeting folks and asking for their votes.
http://www.markwarner2008.com/pages/mark-warner-in-southwest-virginia
August 8, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always find it hilarious when you pop up to give your routine "Warner will get VP". Get ready for some heavy disappointment when Obama finally does announce his VP. ...And it's not Warner.
Hey, I think Warner would potentially be the best VP candidate Obama could choose. But he's not gonna choose him. Warner won't do it. It's kinda that simple.
August 8, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I got to meet Senator Feingold this weekend. In short, what a great guy! Super nice, great speaker, funny, charming, the local candidates had tons of praise for him- for helping them out when they needed it. Feingold is just great at grassroots organizing, he gets it, its important to him. I really took that away from meeting him. Really concerned about making the counties of Wisconsin, the state, the country more blue. All levels of government. More and better Democrats! He gets it.
Great to have someone who is so great at organizing and mobilizing Democrats. We'd be very lucky to have him as VP, to say nothing of Prez.
Anyways, I was at one of his listening sessions (kudos to him for doing them) and I did get the opportunity to ask a quesion. However, in the spirit of the listening session I decided to ask about jobs since more than a few of my friends have been laid off this year. Asking about the VP seemed disingenuous. So the mystery will remain.
Quite frankly, I'm sure he wouldn't be able to say much of anything anyways. So it surely wouldn't have answered anything. Until we find out- I'm content in waiting and speculating.
Cheers!
August 10, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment