The
New Yorker in DC awakens from his slumber due to the crisis in the
Caucasus, between Georgia and Russia, over the breakaway province of
South Ossetia. In this piece I will seek to analyze some of the
possible scenarios likely to develop in this rapidly progressing
crisis, as well as look at the many factors that have led us to this
point. Some no doubt will place most of the blame on Russia for this
conflagration, but that is too simple a view of a conflict that
involves many factors, not only historical, but also local, regional
and international. As a first step, I will seek to establish what we
know so far.

• It is clear
  from it's offensive against South Ossetia that Georgia, did not, as it
  claimed, merely respond to provocations from the region's separatists
  movement but had instead planned the offensive to coincide with the
  start of the Olympic games.


• It is also clear, that Russia
  was prepared for such an action, and had in fact been using its proxies
  in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to provoke a Georgian response.


• Russian
  provocations in Georgia intensified following two events: 1) Kosovo's
  declaration of Independence from Serbia (a Russian ally) and 2) NATO's
  promise to Georgia that it would eventually join the security
  organization.


• Although, initially successful, Georgia's "blitzkrieg" has been halted by Russia's counter-offensive, and is now desperately seeking a way out.


• Apart
  from Georgia and the West, the countries most affected by this crisis
  are the former Soviet republics who have recently joined NATO, or are
  awaiting an invitation for NATO membership.


• In many ways,
  Russia is seen to be using this conflict as a means of sending a
  message of displeasure to NATO and the United States regarding the
  expansion of NATO to Russia's border, and the US's move to establish a
  Missile Defense Shield in Eastern Europe.


• The BTC pipeline
  (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) is one of the few energy corridors not
  controlled by Moscow and providing a lifeline of Central Asian energy
  to Europe, which relies heavily on Russian energy exports.


• Although
  this crisis presented newly elected President Medvedev with the
  opportunity to showcase his power and independence from Prime Minister
  Putin, it has been Vladimir Putin who has been calling the shots from the get go, going so far as to meeting with generals on the front lines.

As noted above, the
Russo-Georgian conflict involves a myriad of factors, and cannot be
simply classified as Russian aggression. Georgia, thanks to the shaping
of borders during the Russian Empire, and more recently the Soviet
Union, has had to contend with various minority groupings within its
borders that have sought not only autonomy from Tbilisi, but also full
independence from the Georgian state. Among these regions are Abkhazia
in the western part of Georgia, and South Ossetia, on its northern
border with Russia. Both regions are very important to Georgia for
different reasons. Abkhazia,
due to its geographic location includes more than half of Georgia's
Black Sea Coast. Additionally, it is believed to contain substantial
oil reserves. For its part South Ossetia is important not only as a
source of national pride in maintaining Georgia's borders intact, but
also because ceding control of the province (which Georgia calls
Tskhinvali, as the capital is also known) would place Russian troops within 50 miles of Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.

To continue reading this post, <a href="http://nykrindc.blogspot.com/2008/08/on-conflict-between-russia-and-georgia.html">please click here.</a>