« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Obama's New Energy Plan (A+.) But The Energy Ads? (D-)
Obama’s new Energy Plan is an Ace – Joe Romm & T-Boone are already on-board. It took awhile, but I’d say it’s about 3 giant steps forward – with a political brain installed while the plan was in the shop. Easiest perhaps just to compare this Plan to the one in June. There are substantive upgrades – but also, it’s reordered smartly, the examples are better, the timelines more immediate. For example, the June Plan led with “Implement A 100% Cap & Trade Program To Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Which I happen to agree is needed - but ouch, definitely not too sexy for prime-time. The new one leads with “Short-Term Solutions: Immediate Relief From Pain At The Pumps.” Better, eh?
What’s the Short-Term Plan? Well, not perfect – but it’s not like there’s the $500 billion extra in the Federal coffers we’d need to take pump prices back to 1990’s levels. Anyway, Obama’s now offering: 1) $1000 rebates for families, paid for from excess oilco profits; 2) A crackdown on oil speculators (which is probably worth doing); and, 3) Releasing light/sweet oil from the Strategic Reserve. In sum, Obama’s got something to offer people NOW – and those somethings aren’t shared with McCain. Most useful, over time it’s going to become clear there ISN’T short-term relief from offshore drilling – while his $1,000 is gonna help a lot of families at the edge. Also interesting is that Obama’s tax on excess oilco profits to be spent on low income families is so similar to Blair’s New Deal jobs for Inner City youth, funded by excess profits from the privatized utilities.
What’s Obama’s big target now - the National Goal? To replace our need for Middle Eastern (and Venezuelan) oil within 10 years. This is one hell of a lot politically sharper than reducing our oil usage by 35% by 2030 (the former plan.) He even talks about increasing new domestic sources of oil. Most amusing to to those of you who have heard me rant on this is that the 1st site Obama now mentions is… the Bakken Field in Montana & North Dakota. Offshore’s not played up, but by naming the states where he supports more drilling, politically he can now customize & target his pitch.
I gotta say, I had a 2nd big smile on cars. He made the speech in Michigan, targeted 5 million Green Jobs (Michigan has 50,000 already), and then pumped up the volume on those 150 MPG Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV’s) you may have already seen on the roads (we’ve got 2 here in town.) Obama wants 1 million plug-in’s on the road by 2015, supports $4 billion investment for the automakers to retool, has $7,000 incentives for buyers who want them, and highlights GM/Chevy’s own Volt Plug-In. Also useful for Obama (he of “little legislation), he actually put forward serious legislation on plug-in’s early last year. On electricity, the target improved from 25% new renewables by 2025 to 10% by 2012. He’s set a good target of 15% energy efficiency by 2020, and tucked in a very practical, positive move (3rd big smile), to weatherize 1 million low-income homes a year – while nukes & clean coal got downplayed.
Winners? Autoworkers in Michigan, everyone in North Dakota & Montana, low-income homes & families on tight budgets, farmers with oil beneath or wind above their land, GM and all those Danish/German/Spanish wind turbine manufacturers setting up shop. Enemies list? Exxon and co., McCain and OPEC – put together in a nice mash-up.
His speech moved the same way. T-Boone was quoted & his $700 billion annual cost figure cited, then both thrown straight at McCain’s “drill our way to freedom” pitch. Long-term, the right issue – rising demand from China & India – was named. The new tools we need were no longer relegated to R&D status, or referred to as “alternatives” – rather, they’re here, the jobs are now, let’s get with it.
Now, all that remains is for his PR staff to find their way over to that Media Curves site, www.mediacurves.com, and compare T-Boone's ad (see under Advertising section) versus the last 2 ads Obama’s campaign have put out on energy (in the Politics section.) T-Boone’s ad shoots off the charts in terms of support (82% and up), with Democrats liking them best of all (92%) - while Obama's barely break-even. So…. A+ for the ad…. A for the Speech…. And D- for the Ads. It’s a start.








Comments (29)
Fine, then. Upstage me with a well written, thoughtful post. See what that gets 'ya.
August 4, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting post and link. Not so sure Obama should listen to the "hurry up and go negative" crowd.
Oh, and no more ties in front of the ladies for me:
http://www.mediacurves.com/Culture/J6513/
August 5, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I left my tie behind back in '89. Life's been good to me ever since. 'Course, that was the same year I gave up Fop & started using Dapper Dan hair treatment. So... the causation's a little unclear.
August 5, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is important: "The new tools we need were no longer relegated to R&D status, or referred to as “alternatives” – rather, they’re here, the jobs are now, let’s get with it." Part of the ad campaign has to be communicating this sentiment to Joe&Jane. It's no longer fringe - but it is fresh.
You make a quick mention of the Enemies List, but it seems to me O and Co. are going to have to spend some time anticipating the Enemies arguments and also deconstructing them in the ad campaigns. Too complicated? Mebbe. But Joe & Jane should know WHY the O plan may be rejected and WHO stands to lose. Put Big Corp in the frame as the dinosaur who can't live without the middle east teat.
August 5, 2008 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just like sandwiching McCain between Big Oil & OPEC. I'd be happy to hammer that theme all day, everyday. The reality is, that's where he belongs - more power to OPEC will be the objective outcome of his policy. It functions as a nice merger of McCain with Bush. But more important, there's not much support left for Big Oil profits (much less OPEC.) Let them make whatever responses they like - i) windfall profits will reduce drilling, ii) oil speculators aren't that important, iii) the batteries won't work. In each case, the answers back let you hammer McCain some more. e.g. i) Then let's support the smaller, independent, AMERICAN drilling/oilco's more; ii) If speculators aren't important, then what about ENRON? iii) Tell Toyota batteries don't work, and by the way, GM's betting the farm that they will, MIT developed the best batteries in the world, and what do you want McCain, to just tell Michigan to go die?
The right move here for Obama is to get INTO the oil debate, and drag McCain screaming after him. McCain found one little place he could "drill" for votes & win - which, natch, was offshore. All Obama has to do is stick his shovel in the ground anywhere else in energy, and he's gonna strike political black goo - for McCain. Oilco campaign funds is just the first hit. And again & again he can ask - higher oil prices help WHO? The oilco's. And WHICH politicians are the oilmen? Yeah. Repeat.
August 5, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
And today, Obama did a good JOB of just this - dragging McCain deeper into the oil quagmire. Best part for me wasn't making an attempt to tie him to Bush, but tying him to the serious Mean Monster in there, CHENEY. He also got a supportive quote from T-Boone out there on the record... pitched Big Oil up against the average Ohio worker.... and mocked back on the tire gauge stunt.
Not bad. Let's see if John wants to hang in on the energy debate now. I'll bet he heads for cover before this one takes him deeper into Cheney-land.
August 5, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who thinks the methodology of this test was faulty? These patients were aware that the point of the test was to judge whether the ads were effective. Nobody is going to admit being swayed by a negative ad.
A much more effective way to have done this would have been to utilized a memory test. How much of the ad stuck with the patients over an extended period of time.
I think this study is basically bunk. This is barely even negative, but negative is what put Bush into the White House twice, and what any Political Scientist will tell you are the most effective ads.
August 5, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
The question is not whether to go negative but when.
Too soon and you undermine your all-inclusive, all-American message. Too late and you appear desperate.
So when?
August 5, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mid-November?
August 5, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like it!
Your friend,
Karl
August 5, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry. Meant Mid-November, 1980. Yeah, that woulda been a good time. Oh well. Maybe tomorrow then.... la la la.... unless I'm too busy reading a good blog about Racism vs Sexism in your last ad. Don't mistake me though, I'm outraged. Either way.
August 5, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
A few thoughts.
For many years, IBM successfully pursued a marketing strategy that let other players create a market which IBM then moved in to sell to. Others create the market, we sell it.
Even with physical commodities, it's almost impossible to maintain a competitive advantage over competitors and imitators very long. In the world of ideas, time to close on a leader is almost zero.
By moving to the middle, Obama has, as some hoped, stayed close to McCain on the issues. Unfortunately, that cuts both ways. He's made it easier for McCain to stay close to him. That means the race is now going to be about character, not real solutions to important problems.
The Republicans, led by Rove, are already out in front of the windfall profits tax issue. Their argument will be to go after every company, google for example, whose rate of return exceeds that of the oil companies. In other words, they'll make the issue across the board socialization. And they already have Obama set up as a socialist.
August 5, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
The campaign strategy of "shadowing" your opponents moves means you have to leave a few gaps where people can clearly differentiate. Energy, according to Obama, was one of his Big 3 issues. Obama can get this one back if he reaches out into almost any other aspect of energy - and this is where years of legwork done by local/state pols, engineers, greens & new/old corps have done his work for him. Look at wind. Even 5 years ago, it felt "flaky." Now? McCain's guys may be behind the curve. But T-Boone isn't. Nor is GE (#1 US maker of wind turbines.) Nor is Warren Buffett (owns huge wind-farms in Iowa.) So on the positive side, Obama can run with the positive tools America now has to resolve this problem - and the polls are with him.
On the negatives, the key is to get the hell out of the offshore debate - neutralize IT - and then get into the rest of energy. e.g. How much good did War in the Middle East do for gas prices? Where do those windfall profits come from anyway (your pocket) & where do you want them to go? Back into American pockets & drilling in America & new technologies - or off to Canada's oilsands or the Middle East? Anywhere you turn in oil/energy, McCain gets stuck to Bush & the oilmen - and you get a batch of surprising new allies. e.g. LET McCain mention Google. Funny thing, Google's EXPANDING their output - the oilco's are shrinking it. And WHO'S the one pouring $100 Million of their money into plug-in hybrids? Not Exxon... it's Google and their friends.
I'd be thrilled to get into the world of oil vs McCain. I bet you'd win that debate 70/30 - and have half the US military establishment on-board with you, such as in Set America Free.
Forget a 100% "character" debate. No matter what a great guy Obama is, the idea of forgetting the last 8 years completely, the Bush legacy, would be nuts. Obama needs to beat the tar out of McCain on a few issues - energy, health care, taxes maybe, paying the bills stuff. McCain & Rove are the ones who'd love to erase all that and just go "character/personality."
August 5, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think they already have. Bottom line. The electorate may trust McCain to realize Obama's good ideas more than they trust Obama to. For example, should we end the occupation and bring the troops home? Hell, yes. Who do you trust to do that? McCain. They just don't trust Obama. All the good ideas in the world won't overcome that fact. The only question facing Obama is how does he establish or restore trust?
August 5, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I'll swing off the road for a trust debate. Obama's told his story. Nice story. But for Middle America, it's not gonna be enough. I don't blame them. Nor will his record, right? Too thin. So what do candidates do in this situation? They speak the local lingo, show up at the bar for a whiskey & the ballfield to watch the kids. But above all, you hang-out with & highlight your friends & allies who are "regular folks." Then, once there, you have a bit of a brawl - with McCain & Bush. Just you & Warren Buffett & Bruce Springsteen & about 15 North Dakota farmers & oil-drillers (the little guys) against McCain & Bush & the oilcos (fat cats.) Show up with T-Boone & you win. But above all, show people which TEAM you're on. Not who "you" are, as an individual - but that you're on the VOTERS' team.
The other side is you chew the ass out of McCain's credibility & trustworthiness. Can't attack his POW years. Flip-flopping won't do it. Instead, you get him the same way - who are HIS friends, which team is HE on? Foreground that - because McCain really doesn't want that to happen. Put him & Bush or Cheney or various oil tycoons in every ad. Show him having birthday cake during Katrina. Sniffing W's armpit. But - without saying too much about his back-story - just keep showing which uniform he's wearing.
People in America LIKE team sports. Easiest way into a community. 100 years ago, used to be church maybe. Not now. But you gotta show up at the game, wear the sweater & argue.
August 5, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
One last thought. Rove is now helping McCain clarify his drilling message to tie to increased production at US refineries and increased employment. Will probably also play that one against the windfall profits tax. Good American jobs in the oil and gas industry, etc.
August 5, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say - judging from McCain's new ad today & Obama's speech, that they're beginning to lock horns. And lo & behold, the question of who's owned by the oil co's is front & center:
Obama's speech this aft: "So to sum up, under Senator McCain's plan, the oil companies get billions more & we don't pay any less at the pump... The oil companies have placed their bet on Senator McCain, and if he wins, they will continue to cash in while our families and our economy suffer... That's the choice we face in this election... 4 years more of oil companies calling the shots while hard working families are struggling. That's what Senator McCain is offering."
McCain/Rove's New Ad: "Washington's broken. John McCain knows it. We're worse off than we were 4 years ago. Only McCain has taken on big tobacco, drug companies, fought corruption in both parties. He'll reform Wall Street, battle Big Oil, make America prosper again. He's the original maverick."
So McCain's gonna try & say he can not only stand apart from the last 4 years, but that he's gonna battle Big Oil. Let's see if Obama can stick this one to McCain. A good test.
August 5, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
He takes a page from republicans. Hide your own weaknesses by emphasizing those of your opponent. And do it in such a way that you're taking their greatest strength, and ripping to nothing. McCain is seen as experienced and trustworthy. So... subtly, yet relentlessly and intelligently play the age card. Not with words so much as with actual footage that McCain seems to be volunteering almost daily. The truth is, everybody at some point or another, plays the age card and we don't feel too bad about it when we do. And no one trusts old people with complex issues.
And as quinn says, keep showing the armpit and Katrina/Birthday photos. Again and again and again.
August 5, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's 3 of W's armpits, dude. I donno where it's located, but if you find that 3rd one & have a photo - I'm pretty sure we've won.
August 5, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, from an ageist point of view, the video of McCain and GHW Bush tottering across the tarmac in Houston the day GHW Bush endorsed McCain is even more lethal than the armpit.
August 5, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's just it, right? There's soooo much to use. Somebody just needs to tell Obama.
August 5, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or Paris.
Nice response ad from her.
August 5, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. She earned a couple of cool points for that one.
August 6, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's really starting to bother me seeing people thinking the age thing is going to help at this point, I think it will hurt if they keep doing it. It's not looking correctly at the problems he has with people he hasn't won over yet.
Before Obama can play the "McCain is too old card," he's got to stop looking "young and inexperienced." He does it before that, he hurts himself! He's actually not that young, but his image so far is with too many of the voters that he needs, a new face that came out of nowhere, rock star, all that stuff along with his youthful fan base, has made him look "younger" than he is.
I was just looking on the Election Central thread on the Florida poll with McCain ahead:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/poll_mccain_ahead_in_florida.php
where it says
Age seems to be a factor here, with the internals showing Obama ahead 48%-46% among votes under the age of 50, but McCain ahead 53%-41% among voters over 50.
Then I saw several comments on that thread pressing the argument I've seen a lot around blogs, "don't old people know best how you need a young person to be president, how worn out senior citizens are?" And that just hits me as so clueless, as in: yeah, right, sure they do, but a lot of them also know how stupid they were about lots of things when they were "young" and inexperienced and thought they knew everything but hadn't gone through a lot of living. You know, that old gaining wisdom with age thing? The learning not to do stupid risky stuff thing? The "if I knew then what I know now" thing?
The young bright virile youthful guy with new ideas image does not get him anywhere he wants to go as far as beyond his base. Obama has to look older than he's been doing so far to get a lot of swings and undecideds.
By bringing up McCain's age, he reaffirms the youth and inexperience thing. It's a perfect illustration Of the Ronald Reagan joke about Mondale, that he refused to take advantage of his youth and inexperience, but better than Mondale. Mondale didn't have a rep of youth and inexperience, but Obama is already struggling with that as one of his main problems! It's one of the main things that hurts him. It brings up the 3AM advertisement issues, for example. He has to work much harder at looking presidential and wise, and get across that he has lead a long full life of experience, before he can bring up the age thing without hurting himself.
I'm willing to bet all middle aged and above who like the idea of giving youth a chance, who are dismissive of the "age brings wisdom" thing, are already sold on Obama. They are not who he needs to win over. With low information voters, they aren't going to be studying Obama's record in the Illinois legislature or his law school teaching work. They are going to see McCain's age and lengthy time in the Senate, his POW story, in comparison and see someone with the kind of general life experience that gives you the wisdom to do the job.
Obama simply has to start working on looking older before attacking McCain's age will do him any good.
August 5, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure if that's going to happen at this point. In all honesty, his resume is just too thin comparatively. And from now til the end of this election he'll be seen as the young guy that has tens of thousands of younger people following him wherever he goes. That's that.
Nevertheless, I hear what you're saying. But... using your example, the fundamental difference between Reagan and McCain is that McCain actually comes off as old. Reagan didn't (at the time). Remember Reagan's nickname, "The Great Communicator". He was seen as intelligent, eloquent, and fairly quick on his feet (mentally). McCain has graciously provided footage of his forgetful ways, total unawarness of his own positions, and an uncanny ability to look marvelously boring in front of green screens. Use that. Because [piggybacking off what Billy points out] being right on the issues isn't enough for the voters you speak of. They trust McCain right or wrong. That image needs to be damaged.
August 5, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
A video of Obama's ad released Monday is listed on top of the list of most popular articles in the Detroit Free Press today.
August 5, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd love to see an energy policy advocation ad featuring Warren Buffet, Jack Welch and T. Boone (economic guru father, corporate CEO son and 527/oilman unholy ghost) -- one that ends with Obama saying he approves this message, or the trinity saying they approve Obama.
August 5, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was an ok speech. Contained a lot of pandering but they all do that so I don't fault Obama for it any more than I fault McCain or Clinton. 1000 dollar energy rebate financed by a windfall profit tax coupled with his 1000 dollar rebate from letting the Bush tax cuts expire causes me to wonder where he's going to get the money to finance this big change he's proposing. Releasing oil from the strategic reserves won't lower prices significantly. Also I don't want to see the SPR used except in a real emergency.
Obama loves the hyperbolic rhetoric and this energy speech was no exception. Ending our use of oil from the middle east and Venezuela in 10 years is pretty ambitious and I have my doubts. Especially when his proposals outlined don't seem to anywhere near reach that goal. Raising CAFE 4% a year doesn't do it. 1 million hybrid cars on the road in 6 years doesn't do it. Especially when one considers that there are 251 million registered cars in the US. Getting 10% of our energy from alternative sources in 4 years doesn't do it. Especially when one considers that he's not talking about a 10% increase but simply rising it to 10% from the 5% that we currently get from alternative sources. We're not going to replace oil with biofuels not even cellulosic ethanol.
But finally Obama has turned "change" from some amorphous thing to something real. And quite an ambitious real. We can't drill our way out of this problem. We do need to remake the economy and rebuild the infrastructure based on a non petroleum based 21st century energy. What remains to be seen is whether it was just a speech, just words, or whether he has actually taken a stand he's willing to commit to and stick with. Its just a sketch, will he flesh in the details and campaign on it. Does he believe in it enough to attempt to sell it to the American people and can he convince them its the "change we can believe in" and that he's the one to lead us through that change?
August 5, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Appreciated being able to read your view on this.
August 5, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment