Change we can believe in is, apparently, a choice to back a conservative Democratic incumbent over a liberal challenger, because the former's political IOU will be worth more in a rookie President's first term than the latter's. 

It is reneging on a pledge to do everything in one's power to oppose a dreadful FISA bill.  It is making a safe, solid, stolidly moderate pick for VP, instead of a daring, controversially progressive one. 

It is constantly signaling to the middle of the road and conservative voters that they can trust you to do nothing that will upset, annoy or alienate them, while simultaneously blowing a great big juicy razzberry to everyone on the left. 

John McCain and his political handlers know right down in their bones that the only way McCain wins the Presidency in November is if he manages to get more Americans out there to pull a lever against Obama than for him.

Obama, unfortunately, has chosen to adopt exactly the same strategy -- try to appeal to those he hasn't convinced yet, sure, but, for the most part, play it safe with moderates and do his level best to get a majority of voters to decide that, no matter what else may happen, they simply cannot under any circumstances vote for McCain.

This is Obama's message to liberals, progressives, and everyone else out here on the political left -- sure, I may piss you off when I stab you in the back, but what the hell, it's not like any of you people are going to vote for McCain, right?

Obama's great strength is not that he's Not-McCain.  Being Not-McCain isn't enough.  Any and/or all of the other possible Democratic candidates were also Not-McCain.  Obama won the nomination not by being someone else's negative reflection, but by being his own positive image.  He was someone to vote for. He could persuade people.   He could stand up for principle and make a difference.  He could reach the undecideds and bring in new voters.  He was charismatic, articulate, brilliant.  He could change the numbers,  shake up the political equation, start a genuine revolution. 

He could make a difference.

Now, he's just being the same old-same old.  He's being That Guy.  You know, the Adult.  The politician who tells you Yes You Can... Probably.   The one who tempers his idealistic vision of genuine progress with Well, You Have To Understand That In The Real World We Have To Make Hard Choices.    The one who looks at you disapprovingly when you mention expectations and higher standards, who tells you scornfully to Grow Up. 

I find myself feeling disappointed almost constantly now.  I find myself feeling tricked, deceived, betrayed, and trapped.  I mean, what am I going to do? 

It's not like I'm going to vote for McCain.

The problem is, Obama can lose this election, and this is how he can do it.  The Democrats were guaranteed a win this November, a great big win, as long as they played it safe.  Had the Democrats run any charismatic white man  they had for President, they were a lock for the White House and huge Democratic gains in both Houses.  All they had to do was stick to the script, don't shake things up, go for the sure thing, and, well, they were a sure thing.

Yet they -- we -- chose not to do that.  We had the audacity to hope.  We went outside the box.  We decided to roll the big dice, to go double or nothing -- to not simply settle for taking over the government again, but to really try for something historical.  The only thin desperate shred of hope the Republicans had was that the Democrats would try to elect either a non-white or a woman to the Presidency, and like suckers in Vegas down to our last borrowed nickel, we went for it. 

Having dared to dare, our daring nominee now dares nothing further... and that's a losing strategy.  If we were going to play it safe we'd have nominated John Edwards... and if we'd nominated John Edwards, he'd have gone off in our faces like some rusty piece of left over WWII ordinance we stumbled over in the dark on our way to the polling places in November.  We didn't play it safe.  We chose the big risk.

Yet now, our big risk has decided to ease back on the throttle, to pump down the volume, to be inoffensive, to keep it real.   Instead of playing to win, he's doing his best not to lose.   Like it's in the bag.  Like we can't possibly blow this one, as long as we're careful and don't make any errors.

Can we lose this election.

Yes, we can.

Oh my, yes we can.