McCain lives and breathes for crises. For a "3 AM" moment. Well, it happened.

We have had a real 3 AM moment - the Obama text message arrived on my iPhone at 3:09 AM EST. It is McCain's worst nightmare - other than his house gaffe. Oh by the way Joe has one house.

My guess is that the Rovians - in keeping with their disdain for "the One" - thought Barack would make a weak pick. Probably totally convinced themselves since they hate him so much that this newbie, lightweight would screw this up. I guess they missed the facts that "the One" beat Billary and he learned his politics in Chicago... and unlike McCain is really smart.

Instead he made the absolutely right pick - a strong, tough guy who is eminently qualified to be President with loads of positives and now the Republican "message" is trying to push the message that this shows Obama's weaknesses, "not ready to lead", not ready to be "Commander in Chief",  and he had to choose someone to shore up his campaign...blah, blah. McCain's press secretary even threw the plagiarism and law school standing out as well this AM. Oh boy! lets get that can of worms open....

Attacks so hard and fast tell me they are really, really afraid. Why ?

• First with all the things working against him he is stuck below 45 or 46% in all the polls and that is with his base support in the high 80's already. This is not a glass half full problem as the Republicans are spinning, it is half empty as they head into Minneapolis.

• Second, they needed a mistake from Obama and did not get one. Obama made a great pick showing his self confidence and the Chicago political savvy that took the Clintons down. This story line will sell - ie a President's job is to get the best people to work with him. He is in this to win.

• Third, if this was chess we would have a "check" situation. McCain the POW has created - to use a POW phrase - "tiger cage" for his own VP. Based on their own criteria and rules they need to be ready to lead, have foreign affairs creds and be commander in chief material - i.e. "ready on day one" to quote Hillary. If the VP choice lacks anything here how do you criticize Obama on these same terms?

McCain's 3 main picks lack all all or some of these criteria:

• Choose the bland and inexperienced Pawlenty and the "ready to lead" issue is moot - might even support a bad judgement riff on McCain. The age gap visually would also reinforce his 72 years.

• Choose the smarmy Democrat Lieberman and you'll have a war internally on your hands on his abortion and liberal views. The maverick off the reservation riff lights up. The base stays home and more than offsets the independents he attracts or some Jewish vote.

• Choose Mitt and Mormons and evangelicals don't mix, esp. in the south. Two rich out of  touch white guys and one is "different". This is the most damaging electorally. In the really close states this could tip the balance. It might get Nevada, but won't pull Michigan. Also Romney's attacks on McCain make the one video of Biden on Obama look like a Bugs Bunny cartoon.

So does this let some others back in like Christ? or Portman? or Kantor? None of them seem ready to lead to me other than maybe Christ who is still just a first term governor. Are there others out there?

Meg Whitman? Great entrepreneur and leader but no relevant experience. Carly Fiorina? Her failure at HP is legendary and public and while she talks a good game she is a really poor choice.

Ridge is the only choice that makes sense but his pro choice views supposedly have already disqualified him.

If I were McCain I would choose Huckabee, but he will not. They dislike each other, Huckabee would shore up the base and evangelicals and protect him in VA, NC and GA . He is also a superb campaigner and communicator. Also would help in lots of other places due to the religious right.

A dozen states or more are going to be decided by a few points so every move carries major risk/rewards and McCain's choices are all bad at this point unless he really has something up his sleeve...and with a little luck the maverick might even make things worse.