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Let's Do The Numbers
I think maybe I'm on a bit of a mission. After getting my worries and fears off my chest, I've gotten back into the swing of researching the actual numbers, and I have to say, there are some positive surprises. And some not-so-positive results.
Now, I know people say "don't trust the polls" and "ignore the polls" and the like. But it is difficult to ignore polling trends. It has been two months since Obama clinched the nomination, and so polling trends can certainly show indications of the way in which things are going.
Some recent polling has shown a tightening race. True. A couple of national polls have. I must stress this. Only a couple have. One Rasmussen and one Gallup. According to FiveThirtyEight, Rasmussen has been very accurate, where as Gallup has only been average. But again, it's just one Rasmussen and one Gallup poll that show a very close race.
In fact, if we look at the trend line at Pollster.com, we can see that Obama had taken more of a dip in the polls a few weeks ago than he has in the past couple weeks themselves. Obama is still averaging around 4 points ahead of McCain. This is not the best he's ever done, but the best he did was, I believe, attributable mainly to his finally clinching the nomination and riding on that.
Now, the real surprises happen at the state level. Whereas a month ago Obama was averaging behind McCain in Florida, he is currently averaging ahead of McCain. Many people had counted Florida out for Obama, if memory serves correctly.
In Virginia, Obama has had a consistent positive trend, whereas with McCain, it is the exact opposite.
A real gem is Arizona, McCain's home state, which has now been placed into the swing-state category at Pollster, and shows a sharp decline for McCain, and a steady rise for Obama. This can't spell anything but disaster. McCain might actually have to defend his home state. Ouch!
In Indiana, we can see real "swing-state trends" going on, but the thing to notice is that, for all the movement Obama's taken, McCain has shown a steady decline. That can't be good for McCain in such a deep red state.
We can see in Montana that Obama has now overtaken McCain, and done it with a sharp increase, where as McCain has shown a steady decline. Montana is now labeled as a swing state at Pollster. More reason to take Schweitzer as VP, in my opinion, hehe.
Ohio, which is supposed to be a swing state, is not considred as such at Pollster, but rather labeled as "weak Dem," as if we look at the trending, we can see why. Obama has taken a steady increase, McCain, like in so many other states, shows a steady decline.
Michigan as well is labeled as "weak Dem," and although the race seemed to be tightening there, the trends show things on the up-and-up for Obama.
Now, don't you all go blasting me for making points about polling. ;D
It's easy to brush it aside, and in most cases, we very well should. But so many people seem to be frustrated and upset over supposed "recent polling trends" happening. In certain states, it's true, McCai has made inroads (Missouri is one example), but in a greater number of states, Obama has made bigger ones.
My point for this post? If polling is what has you worried, then stop, take a deep breath, calm yourself down, and don't get your knickers in a bunch. Things are going fine. But this does not mean complacency. Quite the opposite! The positives for Obama will only get better, but only if WE continue to help him. We have to continue to campaign, donate, and put ourselves out there for him. Blog, talk to our friends and neighbors, and do what we can!
Obama is going to take dips in the polls. That's life. That's politics. That's a Presidential Election. The overall picture, though, is not quite as negative as some might consider it to be.
Not convinced? Check out my post on Obama's ground game. That might be the reason state polling is not reflecting the same thing as some national polling. Focusing on the state-by-state operations is never going to translate into amazingly good national polling numbers. But in the long run, if done right, it can be a truly winning strategy.
Apologies for the length of the post. Sometimes I tend to get carried away.
Comments (46)
Thank you!
Now about that exceedingly disturbing avatar . . .
August 3, 2008 2:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, what's wrong with my avatar?! You got beef with me?! ;D
I guess it is pretty disturbing. I can't help it. I'm obsessed with The Dark Knight. I really think it's my favorite film of all time at this point... And I'm a huge movie buff. Starting a blog for movie reviews and everything. Heh.
August 3, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really hope you're right but am reminded of
" "If you keep your head,
when all others around you are
losing theirs....."
you probably don't understand the real situation"
August 3, 2008 6:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I consider gradually coming to my conclusion after "losing my head" as more of a rational realization than a lack of understanding the situation. ...Not to mention it's really the minority, not the majority, who are freaking out right now. =)
August 3, 2008 7:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! Awesome, thanks Chrono.
This election will be won State by State.
I think that the trends that we're seeing in the State polls are reflecting the building momentum from the ground support that Obama has put in place. Will it be enough to tip some of those States that have been Red in recent elections? We'll see...
Fun stuff, eh? I can't wait for this race to really kick in.
You might want to check out Giordano's site:
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield
They've got Convention Fever over there, and the excitement is contagious. :)
August 3, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, Carol. Thanks for that link. After reading just the first couple paragraphs of that latest post, I'm hooked. That was pretty good stuff. Completely right-on!
August 3, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al's awesome. He has a really interesting history. I'm a huge fan. :)
And he does NOT tolerate whining.
August 3, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have professional contacts in South Carolina. Reddest of red states, right?
But they are actually talking favorably of Obama! And they are native white Southerners! The aggregate opinion of McCain seems to be that he is "out of touch"
Will wonders never cease?!
Great post (as is your wont) Chrono!
August 3, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
another reality-restoring post from Chrono.
I have a few professional friends in South Carolina (reddest of red states, right?), and at a conference this last week got to talking politics (we were old enough friends for this to be safe).
They were speaking favorably of Obama and these are native-born white Southerners! They seemed to share the opinion that McCain was a little old for the job and a little out-of-touch.
Mirabile dictu! Will wonders never cease?!
I may have mis-overestimated the "Republican" base. Maybe its becoming the Obama candidacy base in slow, subtle, unpolled, ways.
August 3, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
How did that happen!? Oh well, haven't had my morning coffee fix yet....
August 3, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
It happens. But thanks as always for the consistent support, Lux. =)
August 3, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sometimes find myself wondering how the nearly-albino McCain can represent the state where it's not safe for him to stand around outside.
August 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two words: California retirees.
August 3, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This post is all the rationale anyone would need to understand why the attacks have been so personal and factually inaccurate. Even if you amp'd up the rhetoric it would be difficult to stop the momentum on the D side, hence the lies, misrepresentations cranked up to "over the top" level.
There must be a serious concern on the McCain side this thing could be so far gone before anyone of the VP selections have been made.
.... quick update... anyone see the MSM information on the vetting information requested for the Virgina Deputy STATE whip Eric Cantor... I believe he is 45 ys old... see here (sorry about the MSM link)
check here
Takes a little wind out of the "he's too young, inexperienced argument" don't you think. Since we all agree the first requirement of a VP nomination is they have to be qualified to be President ?
August 3, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I slightly disagree on Missouri. I saw latest survey USA poll and have two major issues with its validity. First it uses AA turn model for 04 and then compounds that be awardign Mccain 22%...erm not a cold day hell's chance Mccain breaks 5% imho. So suddenly a 5 point gap looks like dead even. Second and I have this issue with jsut about every state poll out there, the undecideds always show a nice chunk of Dems in that cat usually around 8% and not so many repubs. Given that Obama consistently polls into 80s in dem block then on conservative side he takes 6% of that vote...then Obama has a lead. Perhaps only a few points but given the fact turnout is being grossly underrepresented imho and enthusiasm for Mccain is being grossly exagerated I truly believe Missouri and some other states are not as favorable to Mccain as it would appear.
August 3, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I must say, I wasn't expecting people to contest my assertions that Obama has lost ground in certain states, but I can certainly buy your argument. Thanks for this!
August 3, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who want to take a graphical look at where things seem to stand in the race I recommend the two sites listed below. I think part of the reason for the General Offensive by the McCain Campaign of this past week was a direct reflection of what the overall trends are showing (and have for some time now), McCain hovers somewhere in the Low 200's as Obama stays near or above the 300 mark in the Electoral College standings.
Thus the GOP had two different attacks waiting for Obama upon his return from Europe - one if he had visited the wounded and one if he had not - these other attacks reflect a near panic on the part of the GOP as they desperately needed to step on the obvious success of Obama's trip abroad. I do hope that the Obama campaign can return fire by pointing out just how desperate (and juvenile) this line of attack has become. My Two Cents.
This one is a Republican Leaning site
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml
This one is a Democratic Leaning Site
http://electoral-vote.com/
August 3, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two other sites I use frequently. Very informative. The problem with electoral-vote.com is that sometimes its polling data isn't up-to-date. I don't know if it's just not getting consistently updated or what, but I've tended not to trust them as much as I once did. Still a good source.
ElectionProjection, on the other hand, is quite good, and actually, Obama was doing worse a few weeks ago than he's doing now. And Obama has taken a huge hit recently? Not so sure.
August 3, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
And on that note I'm off to canvass the rest of my precinct this afternoon. There's nothing better than sweating off the beer I drank last night working on my farmer's tan going door to door on my bike.
August 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been deep diving on the Pollster data and generally agree with Chrono that the polls (in aggregate and adjusted to mean--which is Pollster's unique approach)--are promising. Certainly there is no leap in stating that Obama should be more comfortable with the polls than McCain, which is likely the reason for the personal/character nature of his recent ads.
Here's where Obama stands on Pollster from the electoral vote perspective: 211 solid, 53 "leaning," for a total of 264; McCain has 92 solid, 75 leaning, for a total of 167. The toss ups represent 107 votes (Pollster considers "toss-up" to be less than a 4% difference), and include AR, CO, FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, and VA. Half of the toss-ups trend Democrat, although some of the data is scant (AR, MT and ND have limited polling data). If solids and leaning remain stable, that would mean Obama needs just six votes to become president, and seven of the toss-up states would put him over.
The roller coaster ride is maintaining the leaning states and the current trends. I do take acception to Chrono's suggestion that Florida looks good. It's favoring Obama at the current time, but by less than 1%.
Arizona would be sweet for obvious reasons. It currently trends 8% for Obama, but is considered a toss-up because poll data is very limited. AR went for Clinton in '92/'96 and Carter in '76, and has been 50-50 Republican-Democrat since 1960. I believe the state is in play and look forward to watching as the poll data deepens.
There's been talk of CO, but that state hasn't voted Dem in the last 40 years. As a follow-up I'm going to study their governorship and congress representation during the period. I'm seeing certain states that historically mix it up over time while always voting Republican for the presidency.
Which leads me to Virginia, which is one of those states. When I looked at 1960 to the present I find that Virginia has been pretty even Dem/Rep in its governorship and congressional representation, all the while voting Republican in presidential contests (except for Johnson in 1964). This trend does not bode well despite Democratic gains including governor and senator. Obama currently has a small 2.6% advantage. I'll be watching VA post conventions.
All of that said, John McCain is more vulnerable at this time than Obama.
August 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, my references to Chrono should really be Nathan Donarum.
August 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chrono and Nathan are one and the same.
I like your analysis here, ConorF.
Give us a final split - what's your projection?
C'mon, put it out there...
August 3, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right now 324 to 107, but hard to say pre-convention. I will not be surprised if Florida plays the central role in yet another presidential election. I'm still modeling some of this, but Florida's 27 electoral votes could blunt any reverse movement in the leaning states and provide a win without one toss-up state: He could lose Ohio, or Michigan, or IA+NH+NM, and still be elected without the toss-ups.
What gives me the most faith that Obama can close the deal is his ability to make McCain spend in many different markets. It could sap both the McCain and RNC coffers.
August 3, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Until the convention, I remain unconvinced that McCain will be the GOP candidate. He, and his campaign, are beyond inept.
I'll believe he is their candidate after it is in stone...and he doesn't stroke out before November.
August 3, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm...trying to figure how you're splitting those toss-ups, but I can't see it. You'll have to spell it out.
I'm going out on a limb here. I'm predicting that Obama takes it 352 to McCain at 186.
I say that he takes the Strong and Leaning Dem States as now indicated at Pollster.com (284 EVs). The toss ups that I give to Obama include: CO (9), FL (27), IN (11), MT (3), NV (5), and VA (13). Yep, that's right, I give the big O both FL and VA. That leaves McCain with AZ (10 - funny that his home state is considered a toss up, eh?), MO (11), NC (15), and ND (3).
If you haven't used the interactive electoral map at WaPo, you should check it out, it's fun to play around with: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/
The way I see it, Obama's going to have to work hard still, pushing his economic message and talking energy policy in those Rust Belt states, the Southwest, and he'll have to revisit both FL and VA to keep those trends strong.
August 3, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure if I'd give Obama such a huge win. I really don't. Maybe I'm just being conservative in my predictions, but I don't expect Obama to win more than 320 Electoral Votes. In fact, I'd probably stick with that number at this point.
Obama: 320 EVs
McCain: 218 EVs
Though I do not think such a huge win as you suggest is out of the realm of possibility. ...As I said, maybe I'm just being conservative in my predictions. ;D
August 3, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which States are hedging on?
August 3, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Pollster has it right for the most part, so I'll use their map as a basis.
The swing states are: VA, NC, FL, IN, MO, ND, MT, CO, AZ, NV
Those that others consider swing states but have been trending much more for Obama: NH, MI, IA, and NM
I think Obama will win all the ones I listed as "trending" for him.
After taking this factor into account, we're left with, as Pollster says:
Obama: 284
McCain: 147
Toss Up: 107
As for the actual "swing states" as assigned by Pollster, I'm currently expecting Obama to win VA, IN, MT and CO.
I expect McCain to then win NC, FL, MO, ND, AZ and NV.
The end result would then leave the numbers as:
Obama: 320
McCain: 218
I feel confident about most of my predictions, but I do have some doubt about my predictions for FL, MT and IN.
Still, even if McCain wins in all three of those states, Obama still wins overall with 306 EVs, so I'm really not too worried about my accuracy with them.
August 3, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
All quite reasonable. FL is a true toss up. But, I think that Obama can solidify NV, just as he can CO and NM. He needs to do some more work there in the Southwest, and he may even end up bringing AZ into the fold. Wouldn't that be a kicker?
August 3, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope your right, but I have a bad feeling on VA and CO. We've seen similar indicators from VA in the past only to have them go Republican for president, and CO has not gone Dem since 1964.
BTW: Made a math error and meant to have McCain with 214. I had added his solids and leanings without the trending toss-ups. I was forcused on the 324.
August 4, 2008 6:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Colorado was looking worse for Obama than I think it actually is.
I honestly believe that Virginia will go blue this year. Cantor would put a wrench in the plan, though... I think that's the only thing that might swing the state for McCain at this point. But even then, I'm not sure that it would change things.
August 4, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you sure about 284? I've rechecked and I think Pollster is saying
Obama: 264
McCain: 167
Toss-up: 107
Obama Solid: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA
Obama Lean: IA, MI, NH, NM, OH
McCain Solid: AL, ID, KS, KY, LA, MN, NB, OK, TN, UT, WV, WI, WY
McCain Lean: AK, AR, GA, MS, SC, SD, TX
Toss-ups: AR, CO, FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, VA
August 4, 2008 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
The 20 point difference between what Chrono and I are using as the base and what you're using is because you're giving McCain Minnesota (10 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs). Those are solid at this point for Obama, according to Pollster.com.
August 4, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. So I'll agree with the 284-147-107.
We're on the same page now.
August 4, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Either or is fine. I accept both. Chrono is my online alias. I use Nathan for my blog posts because I find it to be much more "professional". I know, it really doesn't make a huge difference in the blogosphere. But I like to think that it does. ;D
August 3, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I won't blast you about polling, because it is important or campaigns wouldn't use them at all stages of the campaign.
Facts (polls) are a snapshot of people's feelings when they were taken. Those facts follow feelings. Feelings are not static. We'll see how people feel (via polls) over the next few weeks. Obama will share more than half the responsibility in how we the voters will feel about him.
See my other comment to your post from yesterday for more information on this.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/why-my-fears-were-unfounded-or.php#comment-2999103
August 3, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a great post, Chrono. I'm convinced. I'm particularly happy about Virginia.
Of course, I hope McCain will not select Rep. Cantor (R. VA) as his running mate. That may throw VA in the other direction.
August 3, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks! I convinced you? That makes me pretty happy.
You're quite right. I don't like the idea of Cantor as his running mate. If McCain did pick Cantor, then I would fully expect Obama to go with Kaine. Though not my first choice, Kaine is not the worst of the lot. Not by a long shot.
August 3, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, you did. I like to see number breakdowns and assessments. Though that's not always how things play out over time because things change so fast.
I don't mind Gov. Kaine as Obama's VP. I know what his drawbacks would be in the national level and yes, there are specific aspects of his cultural outlook I find unacceptable (eg. his views on same sex marriage) but he's been a good governor. Nevertheless, Cantor would be hard to beat here.
August 3, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The other thing I wanted to say is that I am disappointed that Obama has put off-shore drilling on the table. I know why he had to. I cannot help feeling just a tad bit disappointed about it though.
August 3, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with this assertion quite flatly. I've seen no statement from Obama that offshore drilling is "on the table". He simply support an energy bill that happens to have offshore drilling options in it. If you want to blame anyone for that, blame Harry Reid. I had a post a while ago concerning this. but Reid gave it to the Republicans, much to their surprise and delight.
Although not here on TPM, and rather more with my friends and family, I have been one of the most outspoken critics of offshore drilling. I was going to make a post specifically concerning my issues with it (I might still do that). But I can't fault Obama for this, I really can't. It's principled pragmatism. He knows that if he wants to get progress on the energy sector, he's going to have to make compromises like offshore drilling. At least the bill is positive with that exception, correct?
August 3, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is losing that is the reason why his campaign has resorted to such unbelievable tactics. Lets just hope that they don't find away to steal the election--it would appear that they won't be able to win an honest contest. If you look at the Kerry campaign he lost by very small margins in some of the battle ground states--some say because of the patch put in the voting machines by Diebold. Let us not overlook these very important accounts of what happen in the last election. It could happen again unless the Dem leadership keep all eyes open. We all should be worried about all votes being counted.
August 3, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice post.
Isn't using the national polls as a gauge the same problem HRC had? As evidenced by your write up (and the pie charts on the top left of http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ), national polls can be as close as you want (or backwards ala 2000) but "it's the delegates, stupid."
It appears that this dude and/or his team knows how to win an election.
August 3, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do note: pollster.com projects the race if the election took place today whereas fivethirtyeight projects the election in regards to November.
I recommend another electoral vote projection site:
Princeton Election Consortium
http://election.princeton.edu/
* Obama: 331
* McCain: 207
* Meta-margin: Obama +3.4%
August 3, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm talking about analyzing the trends in polling, which is exactly why pollster exists, not using the numbers given today as a direct indication of what will happen on November.
August 4, 2008 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks much for the website, though! =)
August 4, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
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