Let me Be Your Bridge to the Past: Now With Paragraph Breaks!
My friends, our little community here in the TPM comments sections, and indeed, the vast silent majority of lurkers that the egotistical sods who write these things devoutly hope is out there is, I have surmised, made up of people of all ages. Or, at least of people of many ages. I suspect that the ten and under demographic is badly underrepresented, perhaps more so, even, than the 70+ group.
Speaking as someone who considers himself to be in the middle of the bell curve age-wise (no matter what those goddamn actuarial tables say!), I'd like to ask those of you who are in their twenties and early thirties to let me be, in the mortal, yet eminently forgettable, words of Bob Dole, your bridge to the past. I feel qualified to serve as a generational span, as it were, because, while I share many memories with those creaky fossils who are older than I, I think I am "hip," as you kids say, to the life experiences of you kids in the younger generation.
Specifically, I'd like to be your bridge back to the early eighties when Barack and I were (unbeknownst to each other, of course) both majoring in political science. In those days, the faculty and curriculum of political science departments in colleges and universities across the nation were largely preoccupied by two overwhelming obsessions.
The first, naturally, was imbuing students with a set of skills and a bodyof knowledge spectacularly unsuited to any reasonable post-graduation employment expectations those students might have harbored. This has, as best I can determine, continued to the present day.
The second preoccupation was the study of the history, government, politics, and military power of a nation known by the rather opaque name of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the long and tense relationship of that now defunct nation to the United States of America and the impact of that relationship upon the world as a whole.
All of our studies, at some level, tied back into that overarching obsession. If we studied voter behavior in the U.S., at some level, unspoken in that class, was a comparison to the lack of elections in the U.S.S.R. If we studied the politics of developing nations, a current that ran through the class how the superpower rivalry affected, usually for the worse, the politics of those nations and their sporadic, quixotic, even quaint, efforts stay out of the fray. If we studied foreign policy, it was . . . well, you get the idea. As recently as twenty years ago, the whole world as we knew it was still constrained by the works of Potsdam and Los Alamos.
Lending spice to our existence in those days was the certain knowledge that the two sides had accumulated somewhere in the neighborhood of sixty thousand thermonuclear weapons and almost all of them were armed, precisely targeted and on hair-trigger alert. At any given time, in those days, several H-bombs were Targeted on a City or Military Base Near You.
We endlessly studied game theory in those days and worried about deterrence through the deliberately chosen acronym MAD (mutual assured destruction). We worried over the destabilizing effect of this or that new weapons system and whether it had the capacity to deliver nuclear weapons so swiftly or stealthily that it would tempt the system's owner to a first strike, or induce the other side to launch a preemptive strike before the new system was adopted. We studied the closest historical analogies to our own situation that we could find--the Peloponnesian War, the Punic Wars--neither of which was really analogous because the possibility of turning the entire world into a radioactive cinder wasn't in the end game.
Many of us worried a great deal about the summer of 1914. Many of us spent a lot of time trying to understand why and how the hair-trigger, irreversible war plans laid by two locked alliances of anachronistic empires turned what at first seemed to be a routine crisis in the Balkans (the persistence of crisis in the Balkans being one of the constants of the last two centuries) into a catastrophe that consumed a generation. Yes, this worried many of us a great deal because, in our own time, the U.S. and Soviet nuclear launch plans were clearly more inexorable and less easily unwound than the mobilization timetables of the Schlieffen Plan or the French Army's Plan XVII.
The point I'm trying to make here is that for about forty years, until sometime in the late 80s or very early 90s, the price of following current events and being politically aware was living with a (usually) low grade fear of nuclear annihilation. Every day you lived, you knew that one of the uncounted moments of moment of human stupid of the kind that we all commit had the potential to escalate into a ghastly global nuclear fusion orgy before anyone knew what had happened.
If you didn't live through those days as an adult or a teenager, you really can't have a full emotional understanding of this fear, so pray don't come back with lame-ass comparisons to Al Qaeda or AIDS or global warming because we'll just sneer at you. We know all of those too, and they ain't shit by comparison. In times of low tension, the Cold War fear of nuclear war was like a low-grade infection, a mildly debilitating disorder that affected your daily enjoyment of life. In times of heightened tension, it was more. When there was a real crisis going on in the world, the high pitched squeal of your local radio or TV station conducting its mandatory monthly test of the Emergency Broadcast System (which had nothing to do with weather back then) could send your heart into your throat and your pulse racing.
I was too young to have experienced the worst of the worst of that fear. I was a baby during the Cuban Missile Crisis and by the time I was in elementary school, Duck and Cover drills were a laughable artifact of an earlier generation--laughable, however, only because by then there were too many nukes in the world for anyone to believe there'd be a place to hide and we all knew it. I don't even really remember when a half-drunk, scandal-plagued Richard Nixon ramped us up to DEFCON 3--and in some places 2--during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war ("DEFCON." Now there's a blast--heh--from the past).
But by Jesus, I remember Reagan's first term with crystal clarity and on the days I believe there's a God who interferes in human affairs for good, I remember when He/She/It looked down upon us, saw Reagan in Washington and Andropov in Moscow and said "okaaay, that's one crazy old militarist too many with a finger on the button!"
Many are inclined to credit Reagan for having the nerve to ramp an arms race and spend the Soviets into oblivion, and in hindsight, I'm glad he did it. But that was a dangerous, dangerous game that old man played with the world, and a good outcome was not preordained, by any means.
There was a point in the early eighties when the men on the Politburo, a bunch crazy old ideologically rigid militarists leavened with that charming, uniquely Russian, brand of paranoiac xenophobia, were convinced Reagan was planning a first strike. Andropov actually ordered the KGB to task agents to watch U.S. hospitals, looking for preparations to receive nuclear casualties. At about the same time,they were absolutely certain that NATO's annual field exercises were a prelude to invasion and, unbeknownst to us, they ramped the alert level of the Strategic Rocket Forces to the "One Fuck-up from Apocalypse" level.
It was a near thing, even at the end. We just got lucky.
Being President was a fearsome thing in those days and the proximity of universal annihilation often required hard, morally complicated, choices. Choices like the one made by a yellow-bellied liberal appeaser named Dwight David Eisenhower. The eggheads who worked for this dumb liberal traitor, Eisenhower, "Ike" to his besotted and deluded supporters, made made a rather serious miscalculation. They covertly and, to some extent, overtly encouraged Hungarians to rebel against the puppet regime the Soviets had installed after the Second World War. Somehow, all quite accidentally of course, the Hungarians even got the odd idea that we'd come to their aid if their rebellion succeeded. So they launched their revolution. It was short, violent and quite successful. The Hungarian quislings and their Russian "advisors" were shot, strung up or otherwise subjected to the kinds of indignities customarily inflicted on the ruling class during revolutions. The Party emblem was excised--literally--from the flag and freedom was on the march.
Naturally, the Soviets took umbrage, what with this being in what they considered their sphere of influence and the shooting and the hanging and the heartfelt commitment to preserving the Revolution of their socialist brethren in Hungary and all. The Soviet tanks rolled in and over the revolutionaries and the rebellion was put down in the traditional ham-fisted Russian way. Ike was faced with a dilemma. Send in NATO and US forces to support our friends and almost-allies in Hungary as we had kinda sorta implied we might if they stood up to the Russian bear, thereby risking igniting a nuclear war, or stand back and let the Russians crush them.
Lacking Bill Kristol's courage, sense of history, and his wealth of political, military and strategic wisdom, Ike let the Russians crush the Hungarian revolution into a bloody smear rather than risk touching off a nuclear war. That's how it worked sometimes in those days.
The point of all this unpleasant history may be evident to some, but let me spell it out. John McCain made it clear today that he wants to be our bridge back to the past. That past. Yes, my young friends, McCain wants to give you back the world that he and I grew up in. That's where he feels most comfortable and we have a golden opportunity to take the world back to a time when it made sense to people like him and me. A world where the nukes were armed, targeted and ready to roll at a moment's notice and the threat of unleashing them was behind everything we do. When there was us and them and the them was easy to i.d. and everyone else had to pick a side or we'd pick it for 'em.
Unfortunately, McCain also made it clear that, like his neocon buddies, he has no capacity to actually learn any lessons from history that are more complicated than those taught by World War II propaganda cartoons. That he, in fact, lives in a comic book parody of that world where there are no complex choices, no adverse consequences and no problems that can't be put to rights by Our Boys in Uniform. McCain is, in Kristol-clear terms, telling us and the world that that he wants to be the crazy old militarist with his finger on the hair trigger alert nukes, and the lessons he's learned from history tell him that the guys who brought the country and the world through the Cold War in one piece were cowardly appeasers.
Oh, wait, the folks in the MSM who know him best assure me that he's not really like this at all. That all this saber rattling and rhetoric and saying we should stand by brave little Georgia in its hour of need is all just campaign politics. Whew. Thank heavens. I was really worried there for a minute.
Now you kids get off his lawn and let him do what's right. Besides, a little daily gnawing fear of annhiliation would do you good. Builds character.
















Why back in our day we hid under our schooldesks and we liked it! Could get nuked walking home from school at any minute. Duck and cover! See a mushroom cloud and you pointed it out to your friends and waited for the heat blast. Knew the name of every ABM, ICBM, warhead and rocket. that's the way it was and we liked it!
okay, enough with the nostalgic... rec'd!
August 12, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spot on post. Rec'd. We really need this meme to be grasped by the MSM, because it needs to be as clear to the heartland as it is to progressive bloggers.
John McCain's a frightful anachronism - still fighting Vietnam and the Cold War.
August 12, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post! Your profile of McCain brings to mind the old adage:
When the only tool you have is a hammer; everything looks like a nail.
August 12, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is McCain still refighting/reliving the Vietnam war?
His insisting to stay in Iraq until our troops come home with "honor" sure sounds like personal ghosts. His emotional attachment to Georgia sure looks like some old anti-Soviet antagonism.
McCain wants to refight Vietnam to have the victory/glory denied. This guy is dangerous, far more dangerous than Bush, who never went to Vietnam and has no personal axe to grind with the world. McCain may in fact make Bush look moderate if hothead, "gook"-hater PTSD McCain gets in the Oval Office.
August 12, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yuck. You know that Rumfeld was a Vietnam retread that always felt we pulled out to early. As far as I know Rummy never declared in public that he "knows how to win a war" but he probably did in private. I guess when we are all blown to hell and back they will have to stop rattling sabers and pushing buttons.
I think you are right about McCain. Why does he keep saying he knows how to win a war? Ff'ing sh**head.
August 12, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yuck. You know that Rumfeld was a Vietnam retread that always felt we pulled out to early. As far as I know Rummy never declared in public that he "knows how to win a war" but he probably did in private. I guess when we are all blown to hell and back they will have to stop rattling sabers and pushing buttons.
I think you are right about McCain. Why does he keep saying he knows how to win a war? Ff'ing sh**head.
August 12, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was ten. I had to learn how to kiss my ass goodbye the old fashioned way. Came in handy during Lamaze classes.
Lugar-Obama, that's what did it for me. I grew up on a Naval Weapons Center, around flyboys. Was an US R&D lab a target? Lived under Gov. Ronnie Rayguns and his first experiment with "trickle up", balance the budget on the backs of students and the disabled.
What is the scariest, is that McCain has taken in all those deemed too nutty for even the Richard B. Cheney administration like John Bolton.
August 12, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd.
It's strange to think that there's a whole generation now that can't remember when nuclear war seemed a rather likely feature of the near future.
I have to say, it's not *completely* clear to me why we're so much more relaxed about nuclear weapons now. We're still living in a world full of bombs that are quite capable of sending us all back to a very unpleasant, radioactive version of the Bronze Age.
And as they're distributed across an increasingly broad set of nations, the odds of a clash between nuclear-armed powers keep getting higher.
August 12, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. The world more nuked up now. This is, in my opinion, and in the opinion of many, what the Georgian War is really all about. The neocons are surrounding Russia and China with nukes. Russia is frightened. Meanwhile, our MSM reports how the world is less dangerous, hardly a whisper of nuclear fears, and other nations undertake "senseless wars of aggression." Each base we build, each nation we form "alliances" with, each militia we arm-- all of these are seen by Russia and China as nuclear steppingstones. And rightly so- they are.
Would we feel threatened if Russian and China formed alliances with Canada, Mexico, all of the Carribean and Central America? Armed them all with nukes? Built hundreds of military bases? Blockaded Mexico, and slapped it with sanctions? Ordered it to "disarm" when Mexico clearly has no nukes?
August 12, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
edit: The world is more nuked up... etc.
August 12, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post. Rec'd.
To play devil's advocate here for a minute, wouldn't you agree that Obama's brain-- Brzezinski-- is a mighty frightening Cold Warrior. Better than a Neocon? Probably. Hopefully. But certainly of the Putting-Your-Head-Between-Your-Legs-Air-Raid School of thought. I wish Obama would surround himself less with these cold warriors, and more with this new generation you speak of.
August 12, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome writing, Steve.
Why don't you send this to a few print papers?
August 12, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Recommended. I was olde enoughe to be very, very aware during the Cuban Missile Crisis, though, and boy, did you miss all the fun!
But this from one poster above gave pause, and maybe it just triggered the ol' Cold War reflexes...
Yes, the neocons are ringing Russia with hostile allies, former colonies of the Soviet. But. But. We ought not forget that the neocons here have their warmongering counterparts in Russia and many other places. These people need each other. Bush NEEDS a Saddam or a North Korean or Iranian boogeyman. And THEY NEED HIM! It's all a game to keep themselves in power, to keep their arms merchants' factories humming... Just because we can identify our bad guys doens't mean there aren't bad guys on the other sides who are doing the same stuff, trying to keep war and unrest going.
Putin and Russia are eaten up with resentments and bitterness and humilation over teh loss of empire, and the ferocity of their attacks on Georgia show some pent-up demand for some blood.
McCain's just a symptom, but we can't forget that we have to deal with people just like that in dozens of dirty little capitols all over the world.
No Kumbaya moments up ahead, I'm afraid.
August 12, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point! The arms dealers are perhaps the most vicious of the lot.
August 13, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn double post!!!
Commentor formally known - great post. Thanks
August 12, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yalta 1945
Putin is the new Stalin; just more subtle.
Yes, I ducked and covered.
Yes, I served in the military.
Yes, I remember when an entire room full of Vietnam Vets cheered for Vietnam when they invaded Cambodia in 1979 to stop Pol-Pot.
I remember Reagan's arms for hostages
George H W Bush's time as CIA director when he created the Shah's secret police.
No, littleblackpropaganda, there are not more nukes today. There are tens of thousands less. We have even converted many of our "boomers" (nuclear weaponed submarines) into non-nuclear cruise missile platforms.
The greatest risk for a nuclear strike is not a minor military confrontation between the US and Russia (like Georgia if NATO had intervened) but India versus Pakistan.
My work experience covers plenty of the "back room" types keeping an eye on every government on the planet. (Back before the electronics revolution)
Sure, its really hard to tell some of the good guys from the bad guys but in some situations its actually really easy.
Putin is a scary guy. Perhaps the scariest on the planet. Not the most psycho but definitely the most dangerous. We screwed up in 1945 in Yalta and it cost the suffering of Millions of people over an entire lifetime.
Confronting Putin harshly is the only answer to keep him in check.
If we don't keep him in check, then that is when we will have thermonuclear cold war II again.
Sacrificing millions of Georgians because we have "No Business" there is a lousy excuse for any human being. It doesn't matter who started what or who worked behind the scenes to ratchet this up or what promises were made or who gets the oil. What matters is the moral responsibility to keep the Georgian people from falling under the new Putin Yalta of 2008.
And yes I am a peace loving Democrat that understands as Obama said, "I am not against all wars..."
August 12, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point taken. Perhaps we should say, more nations are nuclear, thus making the calculus far more... unpredictable.
August 13, 2008 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
"...but am against DUMB wars." Yes, I'm with you, and him there. The issue we face now is how to decide which is which, on very little notice. Apparently our intelligence services knew the Russians were building up to something, but completely missed the timing of the invasion. After all of the angst following 9/11, after all the talk about getting our intelligence up to snuff.
I can see your point, that Putin is a scary guy. He is. And he's tapping into the Russian desire for some payback for 20 years of what they see is humiliation. Not to mention that Russia is a vast kleptocracy, being run by hoodlums and organized crime with nuclear weapons.
But what we do about Georgia is one thing, but a larger issue is how badly we still seem to be served by George Bush and Dick Cheney's version of competent intelligence gathering. They've obviously f*cked that up, too.
I am of the school of thought that you don't pick a fight you can't win, and never start a fight unless you mean to win, totally.
But I just don't feel good about where we are in either of these conditions with regard to Russia. Options are limited, under the watch of these so-called tough-guys in office now. What a mess.
August 13, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Putin is nothing like Stalin - nothing.
August 13, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was a recent PBS documentary on Russia's defense system, and the bottom line is they still have the same outposts with the same button-pushing protocols on hair-trigger alert. And I doubt anyone thinks we packed up all our nuclear weapons just because they don't call themselves "Soviets" anymore.
The point of whether there are more or less nukes in the world is moot when there are still enough nukes to hit every major city on Earth 4 or 5 times over. So, we said we have reduced the number of nukes, and Russia may have said the same thing, it's a self-defeating military strategy to not only announce a reduction in your arsenal, but to actually do it, too.
The reality of nuclear annihilation is as real as it has ever been--not because of suitcase nukes--but because as NC Steve has eloquently pointed out, powerful forces on both sides WANT that kind of world. The Georgian aggression plays right into the hands those whose wet dream it is to push that red button once before they die.
August 13, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great Topic Steve! This post brought back such disturbing memories from that time.
To get a feel for how us 80's people felt, see the link above, or especially this one The Day After.
Holy Crap. That one aired on ABC in 1983 in prime time and scared the crap out of just about everybody.
For those in the younger subset who would like to get an idea about what us older subsets are talking about, check out the above links.
August 13, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd.
As a representative of the 25-30 year old demographic, I must say that your bridge feels very sturdy, except towards the other side... it's a little shaky over there.
I can't wait to become the kind of man who can only grow out of the frequent threat of nuclear holocaust. And to think, I planned on voting for Obama. What an adolescent delusion I carried. And what backward interests!
Seriously though, point well taken. I especially understand that that world you described is the one that makes McCain most comfortable. What a bizarre truth.
August 13, 2008 2:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I definitely remember a sense that many people had that it wasn't so much as if, but when.
That, and reading-up all the times when a flock of geese, or some such thing, almost caused WWIII (and discussing whether The Day After, Threads or Testament was the most realistic, chilling, etc).
August 13, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
And -- best of all -- non-breaking spaces at the ends of sentences. Very considerate of us readers. Thanks!
August 13, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd.
We stopped doing duck and cover drills sometime in elementary school--can't remember the exact year.
But everyone in the city I grew up in (well, everyone in my own tiny little world) routinely acknowledged that when the bombs came, our city, because of its concentration of what were then high technology industries would be one of the first cities bombed.
I'd forgotten about all of that, until reading your post.
Thanks for the memories, dude!
August 13, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Our teachers were instructed to close the venetian blinds to protect us from flying glass. We were to sit in the cloak room (yeah we had cloak rooms!) and cover the backs of our necks with our hands to protect our little vertebrae.
Good times.........
August 13, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not either so inclined nor glad.
As I remember it, the USSR's economy was collapsing of its own weight. Photocopiers were contraband there as the Information Age started defining productivity. Glasnost was inevitable, and peristroika followed.
Reagan gets credit/blame for cementing the Republican borrow and spend economic paradigm. Guns & butter, à la LBJ. Expensive military blustering, as long the pain of having to pay for it was put off.
Sorry to nit-pick on your fine post, NCS. I can tell you enjoyed writing it!
August 13, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I believe the Vatican had more to do with the collapse of the Soviet Union than any other factor. The Pope's encouragement and supporot of Poland was crucial to the breakup of that union and would not have happened without it.
It's interesting that one of the few successful revolutions of the 20th C. occurred completely without violence.
I agree, though, that the collapse of the Soviet Union was inevitable.
August 13, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
One could argue that without the additional pressure of the 80s arms race, they could well have managed to limp along for another decade or more. A decade during which any number of things might have happened, including things that could have allowed them to go on even longer.
August 13, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, one could argue that very plausibly.
I don't believe it, myself, but like so many other what-if's, it can't be proven either way. The best one could do would be to amass a bunch of circumstantial facts and try to follow their implications in the hope of persuading one's reader. Frankly, I'm not feeling that ambitious :-) Besides, it's been done before many times by better writers than I...
August 13, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"But that was a dangerous, dangerous game that old man played with the world, and a good outcome was not foreordained, by any means."
I breath a sigh of relief after reading this. So easy to forget that history is only foreordained after it has happened.
recommended
August 13, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
To quote Clyde the King of Sheetrock, "I wish I'd said that!"
The Familographer is so down with this piece, he has linked his blog to it, with full credit given. It is a clear sign that, by election day, the writing craft of freethinkers will be honed to keenness of fresh-knapped obsidian. Whether there will be enough for the mass trepination needed to exorcise the neocon demons from the shrinking head of (its getting harder every day to mutter this phrase with a straight face)the U.S. body politic.
Thanks, Commenter Formerly.....
August 13, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink