What do you think polls measure?

If the polls are neck and neck on Nov. 1st, then Obama will win handily. I firmly believe the polls are flawed this season because they don't take into account new and untraditional voters, who are going to come out in force for Obama.

Recommended!

My wife and I are considering staying with my mom in St. Louis on election day and volunteering for Obama. Texas isn't a swing state (yet) and I think Missouri could be in play b/c the polling of untraditional, younger voters and African Americans is flawed.

Rec'd - highly!! This year is not 'trending' in normal fashion, which is reason enough to question the polls, but it is very important that we all keep a steady committment and DO something, every day
-- Donate
-- Sign up to make phone calls in swing states
-- Make plans to go to a swing state and WORK prior to election.
-- Talk (respectfully) to relatives, friends, neighbors. Especially talk to young people and help them keep their enthusiasm (despite encountering the Rep slime machine for possibly the first time)
-- Go to MSM comment sections and put in some respectful and factual comments that to correct some of the misinformation or at least get a few people questioning what they hear.

Do something. And keep up your motivation in whatever way it takes:
-- recognizing that the polls are going to be skewed in McCain's favor (b/c cell phones)
-- remembering the magical success of this 'upstart' in the primaries and believing that this IS something that is going to happen
-- remembering how damn good the Obama campaign has been all along, most recently shown by the better-than-inspired VP selection

.... and even if you're a "worst case" person like me and, in your heart of hearts, don't believe the end result will be anything except far worse heartbreak than in 2004, continually focus on two things:
1) You may believe it won't happen, but you can't be absolutely sure until Nov. 5th, and
2) Since you can't be absolutely sure, if keep on doing everything possible to help Obama and Biden get elected, then AT LEAST you can look yourself in the mirror (or could look Obama or Biden in the eye) and know that you TRIED, that the obscenities resulting from a McCain presidency wasn't helped along by YOUR inaction.

And on an utterly pragmatic level, know that your efforts to promote the top ticket will help in the Senate and House races. If McCain does win, our country's safety may be in the hands of Congress - hopefully a solid Dem. Congress.

Expect a 3 to 6 point bounce in the national polls for Obama as this week unfolds.

Expect McCain to make up that gap next week.

Expect the national polls to fluctate around a 4 to 8 point gap, depending on what the MSM happens to be focusing on at any given time. But, keep in mind that there will remain about 6 to 10% undecided in there, who will break to one side or the other at the last minute, and the polls typically aren't capturing that. Many of these polls also have problems with their "likely voter" models, which are eliminating big chunks of the population that will, likely, make a difference in the outcome.

That doesn't mean, necessarily, that they're worthless. So long as they're using a consistent, albeit flawed, methodology, they serve as an index, of sorts. But, they should be interpreted as such.

I'm more interested in the trends in the State polls and will be watching those and hope that they will be coming out more frequently in the coming weeks. Keep your eyes on those Rust Belt states, the Southwest, and of course, VA and FL. Tracking the EVs is what really matters, in the end.

Agio:

Dream on! Everyone said the same thing about cell phones in 2004 and there was no unpolled Kerry surge. The polling organizations (the good ones at least) are well aware of the problem and the variables in this year's election and adjust for them. The real qeustion is whether any polls before late October have any menaing.

I expect the election to be very close because the U.S. is a very divided nation politically right now. Remember, Bill Clinton was essentially a plurality president. A fairly large slice of what ordinarily might be Democratic leaning voters will vote against Obama because of who he is; and I include in that a lot of bitter Hillary supporters who are using Hillary as cover for their prejudices. So it will continue to be very close right up to November.

Excellent post. The polls are interesting, and I'm addicted to sites like fivethirtyeight.com, but the polls are only part of the story. They're the little wave on the top.

The tsunami is the Obama ground machine that the campaign has been quietly building all summer long. It will be the real story in November.

I've been reading Roger Simon's "Relentless" series over on Politico this morning. One of the most remarkable things is the level of planning that has gone into every stage of Obama's campaign. He truly has a disciplined operation with a lot of long-range thinking and planning. The dysfunction of the Clinton campaign couldn't hold up against it, and I seriously doubt that the flailing McCain operation will be able to either.

Rec'd, Nathan. We need to ignore the snapshot and build the ending of this movie ourselves.

LBJ's Brain, with all due respect, St. Louis will be fine and have record turnout Nov. 4. On the other hand, Springfield and Kansas City, Mo., will need all the help they can get. I'd love to see you here, bro, but the poll rides and phone calls will be needed outstate in GOP territory. I'd recommend Kansas City, since Springfield just doesn't have the core Dem Party organization and experience.

Great post and a great warning. Let's face it, the Republicans will get a boost by going last. They out-timed us on the scheduling. Also, the media will encourage a close race and a McCain surge. The key is not to panic. That old dog will have his day. Let's make sure it happens in September, not November.

Thanks Nathan for bringing the hope back, The MSM has had many of us beginning to doubt.

Nathan-

If polls "don't really matter" as you say, then why do campaigns do internal polling?

You also said the media will not say "these polls are inaccurate". Aren't polls accurate at the time they're taken?

I understand you're greater point: to keep things in greater perspective given the timing of the Rebuplican convention. On the polling issue, don't they give us perspective at the time they were taken? It's interesting how many are dismissive of polls when they're tools for us to use in the form of data.

I think there is a possibility that McCain gets a very minimal bounce out of the convention, and that is if Obama's people can tie McCain to the Repub brand. Evidence right now shows that McCain has been able to retain a lot of his "maverick" distance from Bush and Repubs.

On the first day they'll have Cheney speaking in person, and I think Bush via video screen. The repubs know their brand is damaged but they may not be able to help themselves and reinforce the idea that a vote for McCain is a vote for four more years of Bush policies. A barage of ads by Obama highlighting McCain's alignment with Bush may blunt any bounce.

I hear what you are saying about the media taking any small change in the polls and beating us over the head with it, but it is hardly anything new. They have been doing it this entire election season.

I don't find their coverage based on polls had much effect, given that Obama won the primaries. They are paid to give specific opinions, so their veracity is much more than suspect and doesn't appear to resonate with most voters I talk to, both on- and off-line.

I also think the polls are missing 15 to 20 percent of the potential voters in the form of cell phones and perhaps another 10 to 15 percent in new voters. Given the primary turnout, we could easily see 75 or 80 percent in the general election. That has never happened in modern American presidential politics.

There is a counter narrative happening in the country that isn't being communicated via official channels. It has been building to this place for decades. I am quite convinced that The System will finally feel the strength of the absent American voter. For the first time in my lifetime, three generations are motivated to vote all at the same time.

It's going to be a landslide of epic proportions, no matter what the polls or the media might say.

McCain will get a Barack-sized convention bounce the day the Boss performs at HIS nominating night. Or when hell freezes over, whichever comes first.