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Hillary Clinton Holds the Future of the Democratic Party in Her Hands (Retyped, Final Try)

It's ok to freak out.  You should freak out.  The election handed to the Democratic Party on a silver platter is being passed back to John McCain, permanent war, and rule by the party of older white men, the party of indifference to poverty, to race and gender injustice, the party that is almost done destroying the United States Supreme Court for thirty years to come.  Today, Obama bounced from even to down two in Gallup (46-44).  He bounced from three up to tied in Rasmussen (44-44).  With each successive day since picking Biden, Obama is losing more support from Hillary supporters.  McCain hasn't led all summer, and his convention bounce awaits.  If you're paying attention, you ought to freak out.

Here's what's happening.  Democratic women think (47-39, per Rasmussen) that Hillary should be the veep pick, while Democratic men disagree, 56-35.  Thus, while a plurality of all Democrats do not want Hillary as veep (which matters), a plurality of women Democrats do (which matters).  Underscoring that a subgroup of the Democratic coalition stands poised to tank this election, per the WaPo, Obama is more popular than Hillary among Democrats (strongly favorable:  61-48), all voters (favorable:  62-52), and independent voters (favorable:  59-41).  Hillary is not preferred over Obama by any of these groups, but among the core of available voters, enough highly motivated persons are presently threatening to defect to cause us to lose this election, which that group has the power to do.

Who are these folks?  We all know.  Rasmussen says that 21% of Democratic women presently plan to vote for John McCain.  This is remarkable when one realizes that the threatened white Democratic woman vote for McCain is surely closer to 30%, and when one realizes that there are four solid votes (all the younger Justices at that) to repeal the constitutional abortion right (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito).  McCain (recanting his critique of Falwell and Robertson, and hugging Hagee) has pledged to appoint prolife Justices.

Yet about thirty percent of white Democratic women are sufficiently angry about their perceptions of sexism in the primaries, or their heartfelt identification with Hillary, or related issues, to not give a shit about that.  Our party is majority female.  This is highly nontrivial.

What is at stake tonight, and on through November 4, is not a question of blame, which is pointless.  It is a question of what will be.  For the remarkably large number of white Democratic women who would rather risk (no, facilitate) the repeal of Roe v. Wade that see President Obama, the way back from the brink must come tonight.  It must come from a Democrat some of us love and many of us care little for, the gifted, hard-campaigning Senator from New York.  It doesn't matter whether you love her or hate her.  It doesn't matter whether you like the Clinton or Obama supporters in this site.  It doesn't matter.

The only thing that matters is whether Senator Hillary Clinton can take the emotion that was naturally part of her trailblazing campaign, and which she helped engender by the manner, vigor, and duration of that campaign, and pull enough of those pissed-off white women off the ledge from which they would jump, carrying us all to the pavement below.

If she does not do this, if she cannot do this, the following will happen.  The Democratic Party will be riven more permanently into two groups that don't trust each other:  our black base, and our base of white women.  I am not blaming, it's way past that.  This is merely predictive.  Women were close to seeing the first woman President, blacks are close to seeing the first black President.  Both will feel equally the betrayal of losing an easy win in 2008.  (For those who don't know, I'm a white guy who wants women and nonwhite Presidents, and have less direct identification in the matter.)

Our party is not lockstep, as Senator Clinton correctly observed this week.  But the bitterness borne of attacks on President Clinton, attacks on Senator Obama, perceptions of race-baiting, of sexism, the disappointment that leads to nihilism, must end for enough of us to get to victory.  If our coalition holds, even thinly, we open doors for the next woman candidate in a partnership of important constituent groups in our party.  If it does not, we will reap blame and recrimination both ways, and divide ourselves even more pathetically than is currently the case.  Think about this:  McCain is not evangelical.  But he has the GOP base in his palm.  As one Clintonist blogger observed yesterday, we -- you and I -- are the Democratic Party.  If we cannot get in the palm of our candidate in this year, we will fuck up 2012, and perhaps 2016.  We will become the interest group party of distrustful fragments that we were in 1984.  And we will not elect anyone other than a white man for a long time.  Our bases will be too retributive, and nontrusting.  There is too much distrust now, and a belt to the lips of both halves of our loyal base (African-Americans and white women) will not take us to the step of trust and power-sharing that we need to forge a permanent majority.

So my hopes are with Hillary Clinton.  I think she's incredibly smart, an attribute which unfortunately has not helped us in other leaders as much as it should.  Politicians typically don't sacrifice themselves, and we need her to.  Right now, it sucks to be her.  She was almost the President.  She won't be this year, and likely never will.  She has to put the Democratic Party above her very real pain to help a rival win.  That sucks.  Sacrifice sucks.  If she does, she is in my view ten times the person Bill Clinton was in 1998, when he stayed in office to vindicate himself, not knowing what effect that would have on the Democratic Party -- you and me -- or Al Gore.  I want her to do this very difficult job, not because I love Obama's candidacy, though I have blogged for it, raised lots of money for it, done for it retail work I never do -- but becasue I have never voted Republican in my life.  I have loved Mondale, Dukakis, Tsongas, Clinton 92 and 96, Gore, Kerry, Pelosi, the whole lot of them.

And if our party breaks into fratricide (sororicide?  That sounds like a sexy teen slasher pic) by killing itself in this election, I will have to act in the tiny space of my life:  either run for office, or more likely, de-register as a Democrat.

To put a fine point on it then, I don't really like Hillary Clinton, but that doesn't matter.  The future of my party, and perhaps even my affinity for my party, is in her hands.  I really want her to do a hell of a job, show how great she is, and pull some legitimately disappointed people back from the brink.  I am rooting very hard for her, and want to be able to thank her someday for what I hope she does for America tonight and this fall.  Greatness entails sacrifice.  Be great, Hillary.


Comments (117)

I wish I could rec this 100 times and keep it up for a month.

I am a Republican...Not proud of it, just a fact. I despise what my party has become. My very 1st post here, back in early July was a plea for unity, which, although it got to Reader Rec, was met with mixed reviews.

I have continued to advocate for unity in other posts and in many, many comments.

As the weeks go by I get more and more frightened about what a McCain presidency would do to this country. I went from saying I'd never vote for a ticket that had Hillary on it, to understanding that NOT having McCain was far more important than my dislike for the Clintons.

All of this is besides the fact that I'm not voting for Obama as the lesser of two evils, but because I actually respect and admire the man and WANT him to be my President.

Your post is enormously important, and I hope you will cross post it in as many different places and as often as you can...GOOD STUFF! Thank you for your persistence.

Thanks. Because, you know, I wasn't stressed out enough.

I thought of you when Bayh did not get the nod. I knew Orlando was relieved.

And if the party fragments this year, O, at least you'll live 400 more years, by which time we should have our shit together.

Howard Dean said to the effect "After Sen. Clinton's speech tonight there will be no further talk of disunity". He was talking like he saw a copy of the speech and was excited about it. It sounds like she really rises to the occasion.

It's not Sen. Clinton I'm worried about really, I think she has come around. I think it's Bill who's still fighting the primary battle, and I think it's him who is playing up the disunity by using Begala and Carville and the like to play the MSM.

You raise good points.

But in my view, Hillary matters more than Bill for this purpose. Much more.

Yes, she does. And it's a good thing, because Jonze is also right.

I'm counting on Hillary to hit a grand slam, too. This is the bottom of the 7th with two outs and we're trailing by three: Obama, Biden and Hillary.

My guess is she will not blow us away, but her speech will be sufficiently impassioned and impressive to bring most of the remaining Democratic women home. She will have to campaign hard and enthusiastically for the next two months, and so will Bill.

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I know this is a bit redundant, and has a slightly pathetic feel of fighting the last (and losing) war. No matter, it must be said - again, and (I guess) again, again.

I am a registered Democrat, because my REAL party affiliation is not found on any voter registration form: CLINTONOCRAT. I unapologetically believe that Bill Clinton was the finest President of the United States of my lifetime, which is long enough to have seen quite a few. Why? Simply this( all statistics and wonky minutia aside): He found it the worst, and left it the best, of any President in either my memory, or in the memory of many others older than I whom I have personally heard say the same thing. The President to which I most often hear him compared among that older group of Americans is FDR. Enough said on that.

Believing as I believe, I'm sure a fair-minded person can understand when I say that I'm deeply convinced the Democratic Party has made a serious mistake in this primary season: We turned-away the living embodiment of of the finest Presidential legacy of our times - a man and his wife with a lifetime of accumulated knowledge, and a whole tool-shed of proven, substantive work - in favor of a relative novice still struggling with his first shop project. Call me crazy, I think that's a big mistake - not TACTICALLY, neccesarily (we might "win", anyway), just in terms of what is in the real best interests of the country and the world. I hope (without being entirely convinced) that the rest of the relatvely nonpartisan, nonpolitical country will forgive us this foolish indulgence.

Doubts aside, I'll try my best to vote for Sen. Obama. I'm not making any promises, but I'll give him any benefit of the doubt I can spare. What I will NOT do, is throw away my own best judgement to go one way or the other on the basis of Bill Clinton or anyone else "TELLING" me I should do this or do that, for the presumed sake of "party unity", or some similarly nebulous, airy concept of doubtful national utility. I'm not made that way, and I suspect that most other Clinton people aren't either. We're hardheaded realists, with few romantic illusions about politics or politicians. We tend to believe in demonstrated PERFORMANCE, and we tend to like those people (whoever they are, of whatever party) who look like they can deliver it.


Your feelings for the Clintons are important and valid, and I get your deep respect for them both. If you want the white liberals like me, and the black voters too, neither of whom hold Obama in the low regard you do, please consider our views as of some importance too. We were with the Clintons for a long time, we're not space aliens who hate all you hold dear. I hope we hold our party together, and I think it's more important than you say you think it is. Losing this year, we would not hold together.

If you find that vacuous or meaningless, you will enjoy the repeal of individual rights to come, and you will enjoy funding the next stupid Republican war.

But I think the Clintons are better than that, want better than that, and are Democrats, not Clintonocrats.

Hillary sold it in her concession speech, she delivered in Unity and she will bring the house down tonight to help unify the party. There is no doubt about in my mind. But I can't tell you how frustrating it is for a Hillary supporter to hear that all the burden is all on Hillary's shoulders.

The most important speech is not Hillary or Bill, it's Obama. Obama needs to be reaching out to these voters in a way I have not seen yet. Obama already has the firm partisan Democrat Hillary supporters locked up. The ones who will vote based on what Hillary says, already solid. Is HE willing to fight for the remainder as hard as you expect Hillary to is the question? Or to put it another way, I don't really have lots of respect for a guy who sends his wingman over to hit on a girl. It's time for Obama to make his own move on the Hillary undecideds.

Even if she achieves greatness tonight, Hillary will be sacrificed if Obama loses. And frankly, Obama will be sacrificed as well. It was a tough primary & there was bitterness on both sides. Hillary cannot unite the party on her own.

Your comments are in responsibility/blame framework. I'm putting too much on her, I'm letting Barack off, you say. Her June 7 speech moved the needle, because the disaffected voters love her. Of course she's in an equal or superior position to help reassemble the coalition. Of course she's important. Don't her voters care more about signals from her? You would know better than I would, but I'd care more about signals from Barack were our roles reversed, as they nearly were.

Barack will do his large job Thursday. The point past blame is that the cleaving of the party was a fact. Grovels and feelgoods from the winning faction are well and fine, and I do my share.

But the big point the last two comments ignore is what will happen if our voters can't unite. Blame the leaders all you want. If groups defect in distrust and contrary identification, all the blame in the world doesn't put our party back together. That's my point. If faction A doesn't trust faction B, A won't have B down the road. Very simple. Trust and taking turns. It's what wins. Neither wins alone.

If we crash this year, it's back to the safe, near-Southern white man who the women and minorities can tolerate, because we can't handle identity politics respectfully, and trustingly, like adults. It doesn't have anything to do with the GOP, it's all _our_ fault.

Articleman, regardless of whether Obama wins or loses, the party and its coalitions will remain intact because of our common interests. If Obama loses, it is damn near impossible for Obama or Hillary to run again personally because half the voters will blame Obama and half will blame Hillary. But in terms of the next black or female candidate, they have both made it easier for the next minority or woman candidate within the party, not harder.

If you think back to Teddy Kennedy and Carter - how much more contentious would that primary have been if they were separated by 1% of the vote? It wasn't even a close primary and party disunity was a factor in Carter's loss. It can't all be boiled down to if we had a white candidate everything would be fine.

The Democratic party is stronger than this election. Our diversity is our strength. I'm convinced the coalition will hold even if Obama loses.

Our diversity is our strength.

Brilliant. That is, and always has been the secret to our success, not just as a party, but as a country.

Dij -- I totally empathize. This is really unfair. Reading the WaPo article on Hillary today was tremendously sad.

She *is* doing more than losing candidates have done before.

But I'm confident she'll deliver. Too much is at stake for us all.

Yes indeed. She will deliver... and it is becoming clearer and clearer... through posts like one... that it will not be enough. Oh, it'll be enough for the campaign. It'll be enough for Obama.

But for certain folks in these pages, it will never be enough. That much is clear.

I wrote:

"The future of my party, and perhaps even my affinity for my party, is in her hands. I really want her to do a hell of a job, show how great she is, and pull some legitimately disappointed people back from the brink. I am rooting very hard for her, and want to be able to thank her someday for what I hope she does for America tonight and this fall."

I call her supporters' disappointment legitimate and write of wishing to thank her for her sacrifice in working after losing.

Spoken like the husband of a Clinton supporter. I bow to your empathy as always Alex :o)

I'm voting for "Candidate X" --

"Suppose you're a voter, and you've got candidate X and candidate Y. Candidate X agrees with you on everything, but you don't think that candidate can deliver on anything at all. Candidate Y you agree with on about half the issues, but he can deliver. Which candidate are you going to vote for?"

-- I'll take the guy I agree with, and will vote for him because I believe that with my help, together, we can succeed.

Isn't the real choice between Candidate XX and Candidate XY, chromosomally speaking?

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This is laughable. Where was your post about obama needing to make some sacrifice? When did you write about how he needs to move beyond empty cliches and do something to actually unite this party? This is the One that has proposed he can unite america and I've seen him do nothing to unite his party. Except whine that Hillary needs to unite it for him. He blew what was probably his last chance to unite the party. Now you want Hillary to try and fix it for him? Get real. Try and face the reality that as much as Hillary supporters like and respect her we own our votes, they aren't transferable at her word, and we will use them as we see fit irregardless of what she says.

We love you too, oceankat.
/unity hug

I kept trying to send oceankat a gift, or an olive branch, but it all got returned, marked "laughable."

Could you make a list of Obama's empty cliches, because I haven't heard them and I want to be educated. Repeated campaign slogans don't count, because they are used more as segues than stand-alone comments. I have rarely heard more substantive speeches from a politician than I have from Obama. Did you hear his speech on race? Would you call those words "empty cliches?"

If it was only about abortion, I would say screw it. If you women want this for your daughters and granddaughters - whatever...go for it.  I am past having children and I have no daughthers.  If you want to force your daughters to have children they don’t want or ar not ready for, that is a devistation you will have to edure (that or allow your daughters to become criminals).

But much more is at stake.

Your daughters ability to earn equal wages.

Your ability to trust the drugs you take, the food you eat, the food your pets eat.

How much you have to give up so the corporations can flourish.

When will your children go off to the many wars that McCain already said will happen.

No talking to enemies, just bombing them into submission (with little backup for us to do anything - without instituting the draft)

If only it was about abortion, I would say it’s no longer my concern.

It is about far, far more.

My keyboard is not well. So sorry for the weirdness.

I been looking for an hour.

But fuckit. I can't find Waldo in there anywhere.

Cute!

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Let me be clear: If you aren't going to pay heed to Hillary, you're not a Hillary supporter. You are a fake. You are republican.

Rationalize how you wish. But when 4000+ more die in McCain's wars, and when Roe v. Wade is overturned, and the jobs in your town go overseas, don't come crying to us.

This isn't about Obama. This is about America not falling over the cliff.

I think articleman's post is food for thought. Is it too much for people to ask for everyone to think of the greater good? Perhaps.

Bush killed thousands and thousands of Americans, in Iraq and in Katrina, and the general brutality of his policies. Children have been poisoned by lead toys under his watch. And McCain will be much much worse. I worry about the people who will die under McCain -- in wars, and in back alley abortions. Picture a young woman maimed and bleeding in a botched illegal abortion. In America.

I guess people find ways to rationalize and make excuses, but I find it childish. Laughing off the consequences of your actions is cowardice -- consequences that lead to horrific results, like bloated bodies floating down flooded American streets for days.

Democrats infighting and fingerpointing isn't solving any of these issues.

What you said.

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Let me be clear: If you aren't going to pay heed to Hillary, you're not a Hillary supporter.
----------------------------------------------------

This just convinces me more than ever that the Obama phenomina is a cult of personality. Perhaps you would just do whatever obama told you to do. I am not that way. I was for Edwards. When he dropped out I didn't look to him to tell me who to vote for. I looked at my options and chose Hillary. I decided on my own who to vote for. Now she is out. I am looking again at my options and I'll decide what to do with *my* vote.

I'm sure Edwards and Hillary and McCain are like a Reese's Peanut Butter cup of consistency, all tasting great together.

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I think you are a fraud. Any real Democrat knows what is at stake -- war, health care, global warming..... If you are unsure, you are NOT a Democrat.

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This is not the first time an Obama supporter has descended to ad hominem attacks instead of rational dialog. In fact its very typical of a significant minority of Obama supporters here.

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Democrat first. You obviously are not.

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I don't believe you. You're one of those obamabots that never took an interest in politics until the One came around. You're a fraud. You've never been a democrat and after this election you'll go back to your video games and myface page. You and the kiddies that came with you have never been democrats before and you won't be afterwards. its just another fad for you. Like pet rocks and mood rings were for my generation. You're not a democrat.

Way to keep it on the issues.

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Oh I see, you have a problem with *me* saying observer is a fraud and not a democrat. You think maybe *I* was too insulting? Thanks for weighing in with your opinion. I value it as much as I do observer's.

I said I agreed yesterday with your comment in another thread when I saw you admonishing people against throwing poop. I can see the goodwill that bought from you.

Poop aside, going to the argument, Observer is saying that real Democrats suck it up and vote for the Democrat. You say Observer is wrong, that you don't know if you'll vote for Obama, and you're more of a real Democrat.

Observer is right, you're wrong.

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Wow you really are some piece of work there articleman. What, you think this is some trade off where if you agree with something I post I owe you some agreement on one of your's. This isn't some popularity contest and your agreement or disagreement means nothing to me. I'm here to express my opinions and dialog, preferably rationally.

I never admonished anyone for throwing poo. All i did was point out, with quotes to back up my point, that a person can't expect sympathy for being attacked if they are equally or more nasty in attacking others. I made no judgment about the rightness or wrongness of how a person decides to play in this pond.

I never said I was a better democrat than anyone. Learn to read.

Ok, let's read. You said Observer wasn't a real Democrat, writing:

"I don't believe you. You're one of those obamabots that never took an interest in politics until the One came around. You're a fraud. You've never been a democrat and after this election you'll go back to your video games and myface page. You and the kiddies that came with you have never been democrats before and you won't be afterwards. its just another fad for you. Like pet rocks and mood rings were for my generation. You're not a democrat."

So you're saying this passage, condemning Observer for being a crappy Democrat and not a Democrat at all in no way carries the implication that you are, at all, a Democrat? That's kinda silly.

It makes less sense, because you wrote of your support for Edwards in the Democratic primary, and then Hillary, and of a vote you cast, apparently in a Democratic primary, all of which again mark you as a Democrat:

"This just convinces me more than ever that the Obama phenomina is a cult of personality. Perhaps you would just do whatever obama told you to do. I am not that way. I was for Edwards. When he dropped out I didn't look to him to tell me who to vote for. I looked at my options and chose Hillary. I decided on my own who to vote for. Now she is out. I am looking again at my options and I'll decide what to do with *my* vote."

Finally, you also wrote earlier on this site while condemning Obama's 'bitter' remarks that "on most issues I'm an elitist liberal."

So yes, if one reads, as you helpfully suggest, you're a Democrat who may vote against the Democrat saying incorrectly that Observer is a worse Democrat than you, and that Observer isn't one at all.

Observer is still correct, and you're still right that it's not nice to throw the poo.

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Too silly, to much a waste of time. I'm sorry I let myself get pulled into observer's ad hominem attack which you have chosen to parrot. Its indicative of how little substance your candidate has that you need to discuss whether someone is a real democrat or not rather then his attributes. Its telling that you chose to insult people even going so far as to call them gop plants as observer did below.

I'm done with this, I find it boring and trivial. The problem when people insult another's character, like you and observer are doing here, is that its difficult to let the slander stand without comment. Tit for tat is just more silliness though so I'm done with you.

So true.

It's a wonder we held the majority for 40 years - we're like herding cats.

But we are together on this, articleman - I don't think you need to worry because you are worrying based on polls and polls are bullshit.

Especially this far out.

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Perhaps Biden should step down for the good of the party...

The more gracious Hillary shows herself to be, all the more bitter these voters will become. It is Obama who will have to win them over. Even though Hillary does have their loyal support, even she is in no position to tell them to redirect this support and passion for Obama.

In that sense, I hold little hope for tonight's speech, but I do think time, compounded with Obama's hard work, will make a difference. I suspect that, although not yet registered in the polls, Michelle last night may have begun the process.

I think you are absolutely right.

I also think it was wrong for Michelle yesterday to mention Hillary. It looks like pandering. This is not going to help with supporters you describe.

To win the over, Obama and the Dems need to do two things:

- stop insulting Hillary

- stop holding Hillary responsible for uniting the party. This is point alone enrages Hillary supporters. It turns off Obama like nothing else.

- stop talking about Hillary. On TV and on the blogs. Unless they move on, Hillary supporters will not move on either. Period.

- move on and talk about the issues that are important to these women - equal pay, sexism, healthcare, etc, etc.

- campaign for them specifically and hard. Do NOT use Michelle Obama as a campaigner for women vote.

- hope for the best.

LOL, fuzzy math. not two.

How many houses do you own, lalo?

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I'm sorry, but the racial implications of even a compliment coming out of the very female Michelle Obama's mouth being offensive is disturbing.

I think that's right. Time will do more than all the speeches in the world. And, as Begala and Yglesias have been saying -- Attack! External enemies unify a divided group.

So maybe there's not quite as much riding on tonight as we thought.

But if Hillary is smart . . .
and I think she is . . .
she won't waste much time reasoning her supporters into supporting Obama.

She'll just lay into John McCain.

Alex, we can't postpone the election.

I may have reached my first ever disagreement with you.

The argument I'm making, that no one notices much less addresses in their eagerness to trip into spring psychodrama, is that the party's future rides on the schism that would follow a loss.

The indifference to that future is concerning. The party's health and future strength is not a small matter.

As smart as she is, she will.

Amazing! She certainly did.

What you said.

Was that to Lalo, Dija?

Yes, I think Lalo comes up with serious, tangible overtures that can appeal to these voter including my favorites:

- stop insulting Hillary

- stop holding Hillary responsible for uniting the party. This is point alone enrages Hillary supporters. It turns off Obama like nothing else.

- move on and talk about the issues that are important to these women - equal pay, sexism, healthcare, etc, etc.

- campaign for them specifically and hard. Do NOT use Michelle Obama as a campaigner for women vote.

I disagree slightly in that Hillary (and Michelle) can be wonderful assets to reach out to women, but Obama needs to show that they are important enough for him to reach out to directly. No one else can show that he hears their concerns and respects them as much as Obama can.

These women are still waiting for a good reason to believe that Obama is any bit as worthy of the presidency as the formidable and impressive Hillary Clinton was. Obama can woo them all that he wants, but I think his problem is that they are still unimpressed and therefore still feel cheated. At some point, if Obama really is the über-politician that many, yours truly included, believe him to be, these disenchanted ladies may eventually also be impressed, and then they will find it in themselves to warm up to him and support him.

Obama and his supporters promised the goods. It is now our responsibility to deliver. If we do not, these disenchanted Hillary supporters will have our heads at the Place de la Concorde, and Desi will be chomping on the popcorn as it happens.

Misconceived. I agree he'll deliver.

The question is whether he's meaningfully better than McCain to them, not whether everyone loves him to the nines.

Two months to go, two months to get over it. Enough will for us to win, and Hillary did well last night. I thank her.

One way he can deliver the goods is to never again suggest that he knows better than the women involved whether the mental stress of having an unwanted child is a risk to the mother. When he qualifies his support for choice with 'father knows best" bs, he loses his credibility with people who care about choice and privacy issues. That he did it to suck up to the fundamentalists just makes it worse.

So, you want everyone to stop expecting Hillary to promote unity.

However, the very mention of Hillary's name by Michelle Obama (in praise of Hillary, I might add) was pandering according to you, and should NOT have been done.

To win the over, Obama and the Dems need to do two things:

- stop insulting Hillary

- stop holding Hillary responsible for uniting the party. This is point alone enrages Hillary supporters. It turns off Obama like nothing else.

OK, that's already two; but I can't help wondering how you know what turns Obama off OR on.

Here come three, four, and five:

- stop talking about Hillary. On TV and on the blogs. Unless they move on, Hillary supporters will not move on either. Period.

- move on and talk about the issues that are important to these women - equal pay, sexism, healthcare, etc, etc.

- campaign for them specifically and hard. Do NOT use Michelle Obama as a campaigner for women vote.

Agree about not mentioning Hillary any more, but who the hell are you to say that Michelle shouldn't campaign for the women's vote? Are you saying that just being the spouse of someone doesn't qualify you politically? Maybe you should tell Hillary since we're not allowed to mention her or talk to her either.

- hope for the best.

I think we all know what you're hoping for as the best possible outcome here. You've made that abundantly clear.

someone with sense at last!!!

I am sick to death of people who have shat on Clinton throughout this campaign spewing their outrageously presumptuous and whining demands.
As to Obama supporters whining about PUMAs (I am voting for Obama)there are plenty of them who said they would vote for McCain if Clinton won - so they can shut the hell up. In all my life, I have never seen such a bunch of entitled childish whining jackasses as some of the folks supporting Obama. Yes, I am voting for him, but even after Clinton's massively beyond the call of duty speech last night some of these shitheels are still whining and complaining about her.

You see, it says something about Obama that his supporters are so grossly presumptuous, so demanding, so ridiculous and so childish... far beyond anything I have seen in many, many campaigns. It cannot be simply coincidence that his supporters are the worst I have ever seen. I have yet to have the candidate I support win the nomination so I am used to sucking it up and supporting the winner, but this time these people make it damn hard because they are such lousy winners and so damn self-righteous.

And Obama makes it hard, too, he has not been a gracious winner and has made some unnecessary petty moves. Some I write off to payback, but hey, that's not supposed to be his message, is it?

Je me souviens.

articleman: sorry, but the party is in the hands of Barack Obama. Not Hillary. Please stop making it worse.

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Give me a break. TPM is a chat shop. It effects NOTHING in the real world.

Lalo, thank you again for your recent conversion.

I'm not powerful enough to make it worse.

Of course it's not all on her (see response to Dija). She can help, and brings credit on herself by healing a divide no one should bear all blame for. Blame is stupid. Both contestants are responsible, and of course Obama is responsible to lead, and I think he will very nicely.

But I think some folks will listen to Hill as a guide. Many others will take your view. There are many views on this, and all are legit. You speak for some, but you can't speak for all, any more than I speak for all Obama supporters.

If she can move a quarter of her supporters back from McCain who presently would defect, we win. So I reject your suggestion that I should not wish her to attempt that, and reject your conclusion that she is not capable of that. I also reject your conclusion that she is injured by that; she would bring great credit on herself with those not currently with her, and aid her continuing political career greatly by doing so, precisely because it is noble and sacrificing of the self.

These are popularity contests. She helps Barack and earns the admiration of her detractors is win-win, positive energy generation. The scolding, blaming, you didn't do it right approach is lose-lose, negative-negative. Yes it's fun to scold both ways, but there is a future past today's bitterness.

Or maybe not.

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I supported Sen. Clinton in the primaries and was disappointed that she did not get the nomination but relieved that it went to Sen.Obama, rather than one of the other candidates. I then began strongly supporting Obama as Sen Clinton asked and as made sense to anyone who had actually been listening to Sen. Clinton and was not just voting for 2x chromosomes.
There is no way that the antics of these supposed Clinton supporters will help Sen. Clinton's career. There is no way that anyone who agreed with her positions could vote for McCain. I have to believe that some of these people are not supporters but opponents bent on destroying her standing in the party and in the nation. If the election goes to McCain due to a divided party, some blame will fall, fairly or unfairly on Sen. Clinton. I hope, for her sake and ours, that she can be a force for unity tonight. Hillary '16

Word.

Thank you for stopping by.

Highly, highly, recommended, as always, articleman.

There's a lot I want to say, and in fact typed. But I realized: what's the point? I have no hard feelings for Hillary anymore, nor for her supporters. To be honest? I am tired. I am tired with the division, and the hatred. I am tired with the fact that this is even a debate anymore. It shouldn't be. I am done trying to figure out why it continues. I've heard so many reasons that it's just gotten ridiculous. At this point, I've realized it's just division for the sake of division.

One thing is that I have no doubt that Hillary with deliver tonight, like she did with her concession speech. Like she did in Unity. I was there in Unity. I saw her firsthand, personally saw her stretch an arm out and plead for unity. The burden is not on Hillary's shoulders. It's on her supporters' shoulders.

And though I completely agree with your assessment of the outcome if Obama does not get elected, I do not think the entire burden is on Hillary. She can only do so much. She's been doing more than enough, and I thank her deeply for it. It's time her supporters followed her example.

I'm tired too. I do like what she's done on and since June 7, and have praised it much. And will more, I'm sure.

I agree, her supporters are responsible for this election; in every election someone loses the primaries. Their supporters don't subvert the party. I didn't start off a Kerry guy in 2004; I was with Dean. But I didn't spend six months freaking out about Dean losing.

I was with Dean too, and I got over it. The media and even many Democrats tore him down. And yet I let it go, and supported Kerry for the sake of the country. I was not old enough vote, but I was old enough to know what was at stake.

I am tired of hearing "Obama needs to do more" -- I ask, what more? Many people didn't even feel she should have as big of a speaking role at the Convention as she's getting. He should retire all of her campaign debt on her own? I just don't get it.

Both Obama and Hillary have been doing and will continue to do everything they possibly can do in order to unite the party and win in November. But in the end, it is the voters who decide. And this election, of all elections, if Obama loses in November, it will not be his fault. Not in the same way it was Kerry's, and the same way it was Gore's. This is the voters' election. I'm hoping they, as I know I will, come through for us, the American people, in November.

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I started as hillary supporter and shifted to an Obama supporter as Hillary's campaign tragically and sadly blew off course...lack of message, lack of focus, lack of direction. I couldn't imagine what her White House would be like if her campaign was this messy. (And Bill's campaigns were NEVER that messy)

I had me heart set on an Obama/Clinton pairing as I suspected it would be an unstoppable combination. Obama is more level-headed and even tempered. He could create the agenda....and Hillary could use her power and influence to move that agenda. However, Seeing Bill Clinton today and reading his bullshit "If Candidate X is blah blah blah" crap....it is painfully clear why Hillary was never going to be Vice President. Bill has literally lost it. During the Primary....other than Hillary's "Bosnia" fiasco....EVERY SINGLE CLINTON meltdown came from Bill. He couldn;t be controlled. He couldn;t be managed. He couldn't stay on message. He couldn't allow Hillary to be the star and the candidate. I am sorry if that offends...but that is the truth. Obama COULD NOT take the risk of bringing Bill's crap into his administration. Bill is a loose cannon.

Sadly, and I am sure this will infuriate Hillary supporters further. I firmly believe if Hillary had been a powerhouse femail senator from New York with star power and the backing of her base....and had NOT also been Mrs. Bill Clinton, It would be a Barack/Hillary ticket. Bill has sabotaged (whether intentionally or unintentionally) Hillary at every corner. It takes the air right out of my tires. Half of the time I can't believe the crap that is coming out of his mouth.

I will always look back fondly on the economic achievements of the Clinton administrations. But I will also remember the failures: bungled attorney general searches, scandals, waco, somalia, losing Congress, affairs, perjury, impeachment. In my heart I know if Bill had kept it in his pants...Al Gore would be finishing up his 2nd term as President (and there would have been no 9-11 tragedy as Gore would never have dropped the ball on watching terrorist activity)

I will not bow down to Bill Clinton. Was he a better President than Bushie #2. Hell Yes. But he was a disater sometimes too... AND he has been a disaster for Hillary and now for Obama.

I don't blame Hillary. I blame Bill. And frankly....their political futures are linked to the success of Barack Obama. Like it or not..... they will be blamed for an Obama loss. Their tepid (tepid is being GENEROUS) support thus far has been greatly lacking. If Obama loses.....I have a feeling Obama's 18,000,000+ voters will develop a quick taste for two term Virginia Governor and first term Senator Mark Warner. And you know those deep south voters who OVERWHELMINGLY supported Hillary against Barack Obama? Let's keep it real. Who are they voting for in a race between Hillary and a white southern male? Hmmmmmmm Sounds like a slam dunk for a candidate like Warner.

Like it or not....if Obama loses, it doesn;t mean Hillary is the candidate in 2012. In fact....I think 2012 is essentially off the table for Hillary. She ran a dreadful campaign against a historical candidate in 2008...and blew her chance for the White House. Elvis has left the building.

Democrats in 2008

I agree with your views of Bill hurting Hil.

I agree with your views of Bill hurting Hil.

Articleman: Echoing Dijamo above, methinks you ascribe far too much power and yes, blame (should it come to that) to Hillary. To her comments I would add what I believe to be a flaw underlying your argument: that the Hillary supporters are Obama's natural constituents willing to sell out their own interests in a fit of pique at what they perceive to be the mistreatment of their candidate. Sure, there are examples of this out there, much hyped by the commentariat. I would venture that more of these voters are motivated less by ideology than by identification. Whether it is identification with the themes Hillary struck in her campaign (too little, too late, I'm afraid), identification with the Clintons' record of good governance, or failure to identify with Obama as a person (fairly or unfairly) or the themes raised in his campaign, it is not a sure thing that all of Hillary's supporters would gravitate toward Obama rather than a perceived independent (mistakenly perceived, in my view), known commodity (insufficiently known, again in my view) such as McCain, Roe v. Wade and party affiliation notwithstanding.

So, again I agree with Dijamo that it's not up to Hillary alone to bring her supporters along. Already in her concession speech, she made a forceful case for an Obama presidency. I expect her to continue to do that tonight, and hopefully, to begin the long-awaited assault on McCain's much ballyhooed "straight talk."

Unity is a two way street, however, and Obama's job must be to broaden his appeal. One way to start would be finally embracing Bill Clinton's legacy as President. With the economy emerging as the most significant issue in the election, it can only help the Democrats to contrast the eight year run of prosperity with the disaster of the past eight years. Despite his personal failings, most Americans still believe Clinton, despite his personal failings, to have been an outstanding executive. Tying himself to the Clinton record on economics would not only help to ease the rift that you point to, but would also alleviate the concerns (again, unwarranted in my view) among voters concerned that they "don't know what Obama stands for." Establishing a connection to the most successful Democratic administration in most of our lifetimes would seem a no brainer.

So that's my script for the convention. Hill and Bill must do their part and I trust they will. In the end, the election is Obama's to win or lose. If, god forbid, it's the latter, there will be plenty of blame to go around, and no one will come off well. If Hillary harbors any further aspiration to the Presidency (unlikely though it may seem), she will shoulder a good deal of blame if Obama loses. For the same reasons, I don't foresee the great schism you envision should the Democrats blow this one.

A final tangential point: I strongly, even vehemently, take issue with your assertion that remaining in office after 1998 was some sort of vanity project for Bill Clinton that is at least partially responsible for Al Gore's defeat. So vehemently, in fact, that I scarcely know where to begin. So I'll just leave it at that.

Here's to hoping none of your dire predictions come true.

Argh. Too many typos. Too long. Too many disconnected thoughts. No preview. One point I bungled is that if Hillary has any aspiration of ever becoming President (perhaps delusional in any event), she had better hope Obama wins this time. If he loses, she will be blamed by his supporters, fairly or not.

AG, I'll just agree to disagree about Bill. Have you read Sid Blumenthal's book on this point?

My point is more constructive: Hillary has the ability to move the needle, and the better she does it, the more sincerely, the more noble that is. I'm not into the blame thing. But if 30% of white Democrat women vote McCain (and they won't, I think), there will be hell to pay in the party. The party needs union, that's all. Of course Barack needs to win the election. But the minus five points in a week over Biden is a negative event that must be addressed.

Barack needs to embrace the Clinton legacy more, and I think he will. It would be a mistake not to, so I agree with you there.

But hopping on the Bill train isn't quite that easy. Obama's campaign locked into running against the Clinton record in January, because Bill went too far in the process; he was a heavy thumb on the scale within the party, and campaigning for a functional third term. He made the election about him. The structural deformity in the discussion of the Clinton legacy, which solidified this spring, I see coming from Bill's involvement in the process, not Hillary or Barack, who simply competed in a reasonable, self-interested fashion with Bill hanging over them both. But that's just me.

A-man: Never read Blumenthal's book. Generally, having read him in the New Yorker and more recently on Salon, I find him insufferable. I heard the book is very long. Which would be too much for me. I would be interested in what he has to say, though. Perhaps someday you could summarize.

I remain unconvinced that a large number of so-called disaffected Hillary supporters would naturally gravitate toward Obama rather than McCain. Nor am I convinced that the bulk of McCain's recent gains come from women upset that Hillary wasn't selected. If so, some of that could be attributed to the prolonged rollout. I think Biden was a wise choice and would have liked to have seen him out there sooner making the case against McCain. But I do agree that Hillary can and must at least "move the needle."

The subject of embracing Clinton's legacy is a complicated one. Of course, running against Hillary (and by extension Bill) in the primaries, Barack had to present himself as the candidate of change - which to a party fed up with leaders seen to have given Bush his way on the war and other depredations and suffering from Clinton/dynasty fatigue was a necessary and winning strategy. The situation now is quite different. A large number of the undecideds profess unease with Obama's message of change (owing, it would seem, to unfair perceptions about his race, fair perceptions of his lack of executive governing experience or just plain sour grapes). With the primaries over, Obama should be doing everything he can to affiliate himself with the positive legacy of the most effective Democratic president of our lifetime. Indeed, Democrats do themselves no favors by tearing down Bill, whose abilities were widely admired when he left office. By way of contrast, the Republicans have turned Reagan into a bona fide hero, a thought that sickens those of us who lived through his Presidency.

Excellent last para.

AG, my recollection is that Sid thought there was some real thought that Bill should resign among staff, and that Bill was not open to the thought and never considered it, and that it was radioactive even to have admitted considering it.

Blumenthal is insufferable, but the book is great.

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It's no longer up to Hillary.

You written out a scenario that is impossible to live up to. She has done everything right since the primaries. She will no doubt knock it out of the park tonight. But what is enough. Can she "pull back" every single one? What's enough? How will we know it? When will we know it? If Obama loses it'll be the default position of you and others that it is Clintons fault. No doubt about it. That's what i see in your writing.

Damnit... that was for the OP further up thread.

If she knocks it out of the park tonight, I'm sure it will work, and will be enough, and will bring her credit, and should bring her credit.

The loser has a hard responsibility, it almost fell to Obama. When her supporters come around to a degree that restores Obama's slim lead, I'll be grateful, and vocally so.

I have high expectations of Barack on Thursday, and I hope he doesn't disappoint you or anyone else.

Obama will not disappoint me. He does not disappoint me. (at least no more than any other politician) I have no insane expectations of the man. I am an Obama backer. I also once was a Clinton backer. I also once backed Dodd.

It's not them. It's you. And people like you. You have created an impossible task for someone you appear loathe.

When her supporters come around to a degree that restores Obama's slim lead...

What does this mean? How will you know when it happens? How will you know it's not a combination of other types of voters... maybe including hers, maybe not? How? What's your baseline? Your criteria?

With thinking like yours, demands like yours... it is a no win for her.

I don't loathe her, that's not a fair reading of my post either.

The polls the last few days suggest a re-leakage of Clinton supporters, I parsed the data, you can check the sources if you want to satisfy yourself.

No idea what you mean by "people like you" referring to me. Stay on the arguments, if you can.

It's far from impossible. I agree with AG, she must and will move some of the disgruntled mass of her primary supporters. I expect to be pleased with her. I am hopeful. I need her to be good. I think she will be. I think it will work.

You think this, you think that. I asked you what you will know. What and when you will know that her speech worked. How will you know exactly how many supporters she "pulled back."

I'm saying you have created an impossibility for her. And yes, if the situation were reversed it would be an impossibility for Obama. It is unfair to lay that much crap at her feet. Especially since we know she will ultimately be blamed for any loss. Any loss.

Your post, your expectation, you admonition to her is unfair and unreasonable.

When a significantly lower percentage of Hillary supporters want to vote for McCain, as measured by the frequent polls of same, I'll be grateful and vocally so.

That's not impossible, hard to understand, hard to measure. You have to retreat into silly arguments like the suggestion that there's no causation when it happens, or that the polls aren't perfect, as a way of pretending there is no such phenomenon, when we fell behind today for the first day all summer in Gallup.

"A significantly lower percentage?" Jesus.

A-man, these polls are coming out right around the announcement of the VP pic, no? I am not saying Obama needed to pick Hillary, although if he did there would likely have been a bump (at a minimum) in the polls. But it might have been wise not to have such a huge distraction 2 days before the convention. Give people time to accept the pick and move forward. This whole VP timing on behalf of the Obama campaign was incomprehensible to me. Another one of those things that the Obama campaign could have done on their side to promote unity in the party.

If it's just a blip, all the easier to share the love when it blips back, and I will share it freely.

I don't loathe her, that's not a fair reading of my post either.

The polls the last few days suggest a re-leakage of Clinton supporters, I parsed the data, you can check the sources if you want to satisfy yourself.

No idea what you mean by "people like you" referring to me. Stay on the arguments, if you can.

It's far from impossible. I agree with AG, she must and will move some of the disgruntled mass of her primary supporters. I expect to be pleased with her. I am hopeful. I need her to be good. I think she will be. I think it will work. You found the glass half-empty in the post.


I keep reading that Obama needs to do more to 'reach out' to disaffected Clinton supporters -- that he needs to stop insulting the Clintons, stop insulting Bill's legacy, give Hillary the respect she is due, etc. etc.

Is that what the Hillary supporters who say they will vote for McCain rather than Obama want? If not, exactly what is it that they want? I read what many of them have written, and continue to write -- and honestly, I'm stumped. They're angry, and they want something... but I can't figure out what. What exactly can Obama do to win their support?

I think Hillary will hit it out of the park tonight. I also think she will kick off open season on McCain. She is excellent on the attack and a wining strategy is always the-enemy-of-my-enemy. Let her shine some harsh light on who McCain is for those disgruntled voters.

That being said I also think the media (as I said in a comment to your attempt #4) holds a great deal of power in how the candidates are perceived. We already have FOX news, with the highest viewer numbers of the 3 big cable news outlets being 100% in the tank for McCain and vehemently anti-Obama. Remaining outlets seem pretty enamored with McCain and intimidated into not doing the same for Obama. We need to keep an eye on this and call out unfairness when we see it. Even on Fox.

ARGH!

ME CAN'T BELIEVE WHAT ME SEE HERE
WORDS THAT ARE IRATE
ME SAID ALL OF THIS EARLY AND MUCH MORE
SO LISTEN YE TO YER PIRATE

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/argh-conventional-thinking.php

TO THREE-PEAT:

LET'S BE REAL! IF YOU DON'T VOTE OBAMA OVER MCCAIN YOU WEREN'T SERIOUS ABOUT WENCH HILLARY!

MAN UP YE WENCH SUPPORTERS AND GET REAL! DON'T POUT AND STAMP AND SHOUT!

NO ONE WANTED TO ROLL WITH WENCH HILLARY MORE THEN ME BUT GET REAL!

ACQUIRE! MERGE! MARAUD! DILUTE! DILUTE!

ARGH!

Articleman:

The future of the Democratic Party, respectfully, is not in Hillary Clinton's hands. The torch is passed. Senator Obama is the leader of our Party. The future of the Party is in his hands. That said, Hillary Clinton understands what she needs to do tonight and she will do it. For some folks, it won't matter a bit; she can do no right for some, don't you think?

This is an odd argument. I mean this argument betrays weakness. If this is the Obama campaign's position, we will lose in November. Senator Obama, I expect, will accept more responsibility for his own destiny than you would bestow upon him as reflected in this peculiar post.

Bruce:

Thanks for commenting. My post does not deny Obama's responsibility to lead, and I'm psyched for Thursday. Today we fell behind, based upon negative vibes from Clinton supporters from picking Biden. This must be addressed.

No one in this whole thread is taking on the propriety or significance of 30% of white women Clintonistas defecting to McCain. It's a significant phenomenon, and sniffing that Barack is responsible to lead, as some have, is not responsive.

I do not think this is a weak posture for an Obama supporter to take. If Clinton won after six months, her numbers with black voters would be surprisingly (to some) poor, and she'd need help. We need all hands. You're responding to my post as a brief responds to another brief. In politics, in this moment, we are called upon to be constructive. As a Democrat, and a reader of polls and trends, I need Hillary to help Obama.

I am not interested in blame, or blaming Hillary, much less anticipatory assessments of it. I'm much like you -- a critical guy, a lawyer, a yellow dog Democrat. Fuck blame. I want to win. There is no room for dignitary offense. I want to win. And it doesn't matter, but I'll be vocally grateful to Hillary and her fans who help it work. Solidarity, brother.

A

No one in this whole thread is taking on the propriety or significance of 30% of white women Clintonistas defecting to McCain. It's a significant phenomenon, and sniffing that Barack is responsible to lead, as some have, is not responsive.

Seems to me you haven't studied this group, you are just making presumptions about them, like this:

Yet about thirty percent of white Democratic women are sufficiently angry about their perceptions of sexism in the primaries, or their heartfelt identification with Hillary, or related issues, to not give a shit about that. Our party is majority female.

How do you know that about this Rasmussen group? Why do you automatically think they must all be like the few PUMA's you saw on TV? Why do you presume that? Couldn't many of them just be like blue dog Dems who decided after this George Bush crap that they want the Clinton's back, yeah both of them? And they don't know enough about this elite hoity toity Obama guy? I.E., he sounds like an east coast latte liberal, like Hillary used to sound back in the old days. And that from what they've seen of him so far, John McCain is a little like Reagan, and not so bad?

Why do you presume everyone is a fan or "supporter" out there? Do you have any concept of what ordinary voters are like? They don't send money to politicians, they don't fall in love with them, they don't blog in support of them, they aren't inspired by them, never, none of that stuff, they just go out and vote for what looks like the best pick to them. They tell the pollster that they are Democrats or Republicans because that's the way they usually vote, or because that's the way their family usually voted. They are not "supporters," can you get your head around that? If you can, then I think you can figure out what Obama's job is from here on in trying to win over that group. And it's Obama's job, not Hillary's.

To be clear: I suspect many in this group were not always "fans" of Hillary, because she used to be a liberal, and are probably not "fans" of Hillary now. Given the choice they had, they wanted to express a preference for having the Clinton era back. They just aren't sure Obama is the kind of centrist Dem they want, and McCain looks interesting now that Hillary is out. I doubt very much it's all about cult of Hillary.

BTW, I think the choice of Joe Biden shows he sees the problem much more than you do. I think it's highly unlikely that these are bitter feminist Hillary fans, it's more likely it's about a preference for DLC-ism. You know, the Dick Morris stuff--soccer moms, school uniforms, tough on crime, support for working hard, assertive foreign policy, getting ahead, rising tide lifts all boats....they don't see that in Obama, yet. What they may have seen was him doing was inspirational speeches like RFK or Martin Luther King, bunch of kids screaming when he would appear places talking about hope and change, maybe some scenes from his leftist black preacher, like a classic stereotype liberal.

I'm with you AA (see above). You just put it better.

I'm with you AA (see above) although you put it better than I.

Thanks; personally I think yours was worded better, mine was just motormouth off top of head.

I should reiterate that it was just guessing on my part, that everyone should know more about the group before making presumptions. Still, I've been reading this from good poll analysts like Charlie Cook for more than a couple months now. To think Obama's problem is feminists that want a woman president or are Hillary cultists just strikes me immediately as really absurd, way out in left field, clueless.

Must admit, though, there was a great headline editor for the NYT front page print edition today, helped confirm the meme for me more. So many seem to think Michelle's speech was to repair the patriotism thing, but I think that's wrong, this editor got it right in their sub-heading: "As Convention Opens, Obama's Wife Cites Family Values." Her speech wasn't about patriotism, it was about "family values." Much of it was about her nuclear family and what a hardworking father does for his children. And the framing was blatant, with that screen appeareance from Daddy at the end. "Family values" = blue dogs, religious folks, social conservatives. Definitely an effort to get out from under the urban cosmopolitan yuppie label.

Hillary gave a great speech last night, and some number of women emotionally identified with her campaign but reluctant to embrace Obama have surely moved some distance toward him. OneWilson said it would help a little. A little would be great.

More to the point, your above comment is incorrect in several particulars, and is, as you intended, gratuituously patronizing.

1. The idea that picking Biden shows that Obama's understanding of his "problem" is like yours is obviously wrong. Biden's not DLC. He helps culturally, with older whites and Catholics, not because he's perceived as centrist. More Dems describe him as liberal than describe themselves as liberal. Read Rasmussen, the data are there.

2. The idea that 30% of white Dem women are defecting to McCain, and that it's all political, and not cultural/identity politics, is apologist nonsense. Of course some are DLC centrists (I'll concede part of your point while you obdurately concede none of mine). Of course part of it is racial, of course part of it is cultural and identity politics. There were cultural objections (rich, out of touch, northeastern liberal) to John Kerry, and of course he didn't suffer these mass defections of white Dem women. Maybe they all got more conservative in four years. And maybe I've met more of them than you.

Your argument is groundless and illogical because it assumes that the current, statistically higher rate of defection among Dem white women (as opposed to white men, Hispanics, blacks) has nothing to do with simple gender identification. I brought data, you just sneer that I don't understand voters, but you have no data at all.

3. Your invocation of Wright as a political marker of liberalism but not a cultural/identity politics marker, repellent as the Scary Black Preacher Man to some of these Dems is self-indulgent in the extreme. Of course _both_ are reactions to Wright.

4. Yes, some women find McCain comfortingly like Reagan. And yes, Reagan began his 1980 campaign in Philadelphia, MS and told fake anecdotes about Cadillac-riding welfare queens. That argument flips against you, because it explains a reaction to Obama that shines the light on the 30% that you refuse to see; you're the one who just doesn't get it.

5. "Do you have any concept of what ordinary voters are like?" you ask. What an essentializing (as to voters), arrogant (as to me) thing to type. Are only high school educated white women "ordinary voters"? Are only Hispanic high school teachers "ordinary voters"? Are only retired Jewish men in the Carolinas "ordinary voters"? Are only black woman accountants in Des Moines "ordinary voters"? Are only Asian women working in textiles in Tacoma "ordinary voters"? Are only Ph.D.-having granola guy liberals teaching at the University of Georgia "ordinary voters"?

Who empowered you to decide what an "ordinary voter" is, or to valorize one set above the others? Our diversity as a party is that all of these and all others are _all_ important voters, your essentializing conceit that the ones you like or _think_ you know so well are "ordinary" aside. The point of my post is the need for all hands to be united in the future, and the risk of further fracture. Your question is rude and arrogant, and you don't deserve to be patted on the ass for it.

But whether the Democratic Party wins or loses this Presidential election, the DLCers, the "ordinary voters" you valorize, Hillary Clinton, and her supporters are going to need the Other within the Party. And the Other needs them, equally so. Neither is better, more Democratic, more valid, more right, more important, more numerous, more "ordinary", or able to govern without their counterpart.

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artappraiser,

Let me second the general tone of your post. It's sort of along the same lines of what I was trying to say above.

I agree 100% that strong supporters of individual candidates in a highly ideological or even a highly personal sense, do not always grasp that the great majority of potential voters don't feel that way.

Real insight, and very well expressed.

aa's position that no one feels that way is not defensible.

my post doesn't take the straw man position that all do.

some do, some don't, some will move now, some won't, some will move later, some won't.

that's the real world in which persuasion and leaders operate.

hillary was great last night, and she fulfilled the hope of my post.

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Keep in mind that many of the so-called "Hillary supporters" are GOP plants. This is a MSM-GOP manufactured issue.

At some point, any real Dem would vote for an end to the war, for health care, for sensible trade policies, for green energy. There's gender discrimination, there's Roe v Wade.

We are Democrats because we care about the consequences of policy on people. We don't like to see discrimination, or rising seas, or lead in toys. If we didn't care, we would be happy with the GOP's "me first" style of greed and malice.

Perhaps we should all leave Hillary alone, since after her speech tonight which will make clear where she stands, these people clearly don't follow her or her party in any sense.

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Keep in mind that many of the so-called "Hillary supporters" are GOP plants. This is a MSM-GOP manufactured issue.

At some point, any real Dem would vote for an end to the war, for health care, for sensible trade policies, for green energy. There's gender discrimination, there's Roe v Wade.

We are Democrats because we care about the consequences of policy on people. We don't like to see discrimination, or rising seas, or lead in toys. If we didn't care, we would be happy with the GOP's "me first" style of greed and malice.

Perhaps we should all leave Hillary alone, since after her speech tonight which will make clear where she stands, these people clearly don't follow her or her party in any sense.

Your second and third paragraphs are so eminently true. Hillary will speak consistent with that. You uplift this thread, thank you.

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Thanks.

Hillary did just that. Great speech, made clear what being a Democrat means.

Now we'll see if the MSM dead-enders will continue to harp, harp, harp on this meme.

Whew. Great work by Hillary.

Tonight reminded me of the early days of the primary, when it seemed like a *good* thing that we had two great candidates.

There's been a lot of drama on the Democratic side. But maybe drama is a good thing, if it gets people to tune in to the convention, and gives them the sense that we're grappling with real issues.

I can't imagine a lot of people are going to want to tune in next week, to watch Bush, Giuliani, and McCain repeat the same lying BS they've been repeating for eight years.

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Oh, you mean for next week's HateFest?

Whew. Great work by Hillary.

Tonight reminded me of the early days of the primary, when it seemed like a *good* thing that we had two great candidates.

There's been a lot of drama on the Democratic side. But maybe drama is a good thing, if it gets people to tune in to the convention, and gives them the sense that we're grappling with real issues.

I can't imagine a lot of people are going to want to tune in next week, to watch Bush, Giuliani, and McCain repeat the same lying BS they've been repeating for eight years.

Sorry. TPM is acting weird tonight. Heavy traffic?

She rocked the house. It was great, and I have no doubt it will move the needle.

It was so far above the Teddy 80 speech.

Yay Hillary!

Go Obama!

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I had a delusional moment where I was hoping that when Chelsea Clinton walked out to introduce her mother, she would have paused and said: You know a few years ago when I was a teenager and my daddy was the President of the United States, John McCain thought it was really funny to tell a joke about how the reason I was so ugly was because my father was Janet Reno."

And then just pause and let the room absorb how hateful a joke that truly was, how it disrespected her father, the sitting President, her mother by pretending she was a lesbian, how he disrespected Janet Reno as an unattractive single female despite her enormous accomplishments, and finally by how he had not a thought or a moment of empathy for a young person going through an awkward phase. Oh, how I wish she had said it and let the true John McCain be revealed for all the world to see.

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That would have been priceless.

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Post-"the speech":

She was (naturally) fine. Maybe 5 minutes too long IMO, but quite good and properly correct.

She said everything she COULD say in support of Sen. Obama - (given that it HAS to be obvious to even the most gullible believer that she MUST deeply think she has forgotten more about the qualifications for President than her rival currently possesses).

I'm sure she'll keep soldiering on and doing her best, and I'm equally sure it will do Sen. Obama a little good. Mostly, though, I think the "needle" hasn't moved very far from wherever it was. That's for Sen. Obama to do, from here on out.

(And my sincere belief that Bill Clinton was an outstanding President doesn't extend to liking the idea of him transparently goo-gooing at the camera during her speech - at times like that, I can almost (almost) grasp the personal antipathy so many of his opponents seem to hold toward him. A touch over the top, for my taste).

Obama would have had a real responsibility to do for her what she did for him last night. It does help, and while it may be a little, as you contend, as Pete Townshend sang on Empty Glass, sometimes a little is enough.

I also agree it's obvious that she thinks her experience trumps his. That argument's over, along with the divisive primaries (my post cast blame all around for that). She has to live in the world that is, and she was wise, and responsible to her party (which is all of us), for giving the truly excellent speech she gave. I thank her for it.

Your conclusions in this post are being proved to be just plain wrong. They seem to me to come direct from reading months of passionate Obama and Hillary partisans on the net. The blogosphere is not the electorate, it does not represent it well at all. I think you need to beware the effects of the blog echo chamber, and the campaign supporter echo chamber, which is no better for accuracy than the TV echo chamber.

Frank Rich, today:

...His campaign, unlike TV’s fantasists, knew the simple truth. The New York Times/CBS News poll conducted on the eve of the convention found that the Democrats were no more divided than the G.O.P.: In both parties, 79 percent of voters supported their respective nominees. The simultaneous Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll also found that 79 percent of Democrats support Obama — which, as Amy Walter of National Journal alone noticed, is slightly higher than either John Kerry and Al Gore fared on that same question (77 percent) in that same poll just before their conventions.

But empirical evidence can’t compete with a favorite golden oldie like the Clinton soap opera. So when Hillary Clinton said a month ago that her delegates needed a “catharsis,” surely she had to be laying the groundwork for convention mischief. But it was never in either Clinton’s interest to sabotage Obama. Hillary Clinton’s Tuesday speech, arguably the best of her career, was as much about her own desire to reconcile with the alienated Obama Democrats she might need someday as it was about releasing her supporters to Obama. The Clintons never do stop thinking about tomorrow.

The latest good luck for the Democrats is that the McCain campaign was just as bamboozled as the press by the false Hillary narrative....The main reason McCain knuckled under to the religious right by picking Palin is that he actually believes there’s a large army of embittered Hillary loyalists who will vote for a hard-line conservative simply because she’s a woman. That’s what happens when you listen to the TV news echo chamber...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/31/opinion/31rich.html

Those in play were never party regulars, i.e., devoted party members. They are just people who vote, often with a preference for a certain party line, but don't get so hepped up about loyalty to individual politicians or parties or identity politics as to blog about it or attend political conventions. To come out in a late, close primary to vote for a Clinton over a relative newcomer to the national scene is not necessarily to be a faithful Clinton fan who will listen to anything she or her hubby tells them to do, or even a faithful Democrat. It's really dangerous to being reality based to equate people in polls with people on blogs or convention delegates or even people that watch convention coverage. The future of the party, it was always in the hands of Obama once he won the nomination. "Puma's" and bitter feminists who passionately wanted a woman to be president this time are a tiny minority. Those who think the Clinton era was better than Bush (yes, just better, as in: not diehard fans of, as in: can be convinced of another person doing just as well or better) and are not sure about Obama (riskier--is he really going to help me and mine?) are a much bigger minority.

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