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Hillary Clinton Holds the Future of the Democratic Party in Her Hands (Fourth Try)
It's ok to freak out. You should freak out. The election handed to the Democratic Party on a silver platter is being passed back to John McCain, permanent war, and rule by the party of older white men, the party of indifference to poverty, to gender and racial injustice, the party that is almost done destroying the United States Supreme Court for thirty years to come. Today, during his own convention, Obama bounced from even to down two in Gallup (46-44), and bounced from plus three to tied in Rasmussen (44-44). With each successive day since picking Biden, Obama has leaked more Hillary supporters. McCain hasn't led all summer, and his convention bounce awaits. If you're paying attention, you ought to freak out.
Here's what's happening. Democratic women think (47-39, per Rasmussen) that Hillary should be the veep pick, while Democratic men disagree, 56-35. Thus, while a plurality of all Democrats do not want Hillary as veep (which matters), a plurality of women Democrats do (which matters). Underscoring that a subgroup of the Democratic coalition stands poised to tank this election, per the WaPo, Obama is more popular than Hillary among Democrats (strongly favorable: 61-48), all voters (favorable: 62-52), and independent voters (favorable: 59-41). Hillary is not preferred to Obama by any of these groups, but among the core of available voters, enough highly motivated persons are presently threatening to stay home to cause us to lose this election, which that group has the power to do.
Comments (9)
I refuse to retype this whole fucking piece. This software really, really, really, really sucks. It thinks everything is a code and keeps killing the piece. Thanks, TPM!
August 26, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I recd the 4th try. I hope it contains all you intended in this post.
It seems to me that the press I've seen (mostly cable news) seems hell bent, with the exception of Olberman and Maddow, on showing Obama in the worst light. Yesterday was an inspiring evening and yet the pundits all were yelling fight! fight!, where's the fight?! McCain's negative ads have gone into heavy rotation using free airtime compliments of the news networks. This is a problem. It's not just Hillary, it's the media outlets. The mainstream ones where most people get their news and from which most form their impressions. They love the negative stuff and the more sensational and uglier it is the more they love it and make sure it gets maximum play. But even the good negative ads from the Obama campaign don't get this attention. It's a way to slant coverage without blatantly appearing partisan.
August 26, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post it in the comments.
August 26, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You got another paragraph out, but I'm guessing you've got more, and I'm still looking forward to it!
August 26, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I finally got it all up, as final try. Thanks, and sorry for the inconvenience.
August 26, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you don't mind rec'ing the full version (440 pm EDT), I'd be grateful.
August 26, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
We just had a BETTER post than this one talking about NOT overreacting. These polls will fluxuate considerably until after the first debate. Just control yourself and wait. You must realize McCain has caught up to Obama because of two main reasons.
1.He has coalesced his bas (Now 87 to 88%)
2.Obama's base is stil lbeing resistent (75-79%)
These are DEMOCRATS Obama has to reach to. That............can and will be done.
August 26, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I take it all back. A negative bounce during a convention, though unprecedented, is nothing to be alarmed at. A BETTER post says wait until September 26 to pay attention. Got it, thanks.
You're in the wrong thread, you might want to disagree in the one where the system finally accepted it, at 439 pm EDT.
August 26, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I worry about the Supreme Court also, but even worse is the state of the overall federal judiciary. I wish I could find the reference to the bar graphs of the rep and dem appointees currently active in the circuits and at the district level, but its appallingly lopsided in the Republican's favor and honestly, we can't afford even four more years of appointments. The circuits are lost except for the 9th and 2nd and the 2nd isn't even liberal anymore....
August 26, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
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